That is correct.

Then I should be OK for my final EK flights in March, assuming I can get the upgrades and use up all my Skywards points.

I used to book EK Y class SIN-Europe, but now I book Sri Lankan J class for just under twice the price.

So goodbye EK once and for all. There are many ordinary folk mesmerised by EK, but I'm not one of them. Also I don't live on the Sub-continent or want to have anything to do with it.

What is it with the "Sub-Continent" and its people you are so upset about? You mention it almost as many times as you mention your final EK flight...

I only fly EY to SA because I earn Guest miles on the majority of my EU flights, if Emirates had a partner in the EU for short haul flights then I'd most likely use them (not EasyJet though, don't fancy being treated as cattle).

Emirates hasn't lost money through my flying with them, I generally fly in Business or First, my next flight is in Business next month so to say I'm not one to give them a constant flow of cash is ridiculous.

The Emirates Loyalty program also isn't the reason I fly with them, it's a benefit which is already poor and is now poorer. My status with Emirates hasn't yielded anymore than flying business/first normally would, not as far as I can tell anyway.

My issue is the tickets I need in a couple of months being in the region of £2,500 although I noticed that there has been a drop to £2,000 (today) which is a more acceptable increase compared to last years prices (I booked), like everything it comes down to the day you book :p

For me, it comes down to if the price is right compared to the product, it's unfortunate but Emirates is becoming somewhat like BA IMO, not as bad but you can see the direction it's heading in.

In effect though, isn't saying that you fly EY to South Africa because you earn miles in the EU the same as you choosing the airline that suits your needs (one of which is to redeem earned miles). The "loyalty" in "loyalty program" is a misnomer - aren't they supposed to make you stick with the program you have signed up with and book on that airline even though there may be other airlines that suit your immediate needs better? As you say, you choose based on price and what value you get from your product each time - which makes the loyalty program not a thing that makes you go out of your way to book it, but just another feature of the airline's offer for the journey you want to take. Which is why I think airlines want to move to a sort of guaranteed revenue before benefits model for their frequent flier programs instead of bundling it as part of their immediate offer, as they think that frequent flier concerns (for most fliers, of course FT is different!), when immediately compared with things like hard and soft product, is way down the list of priorities.

I realise there is a very fine distinction between the way of analysing them "on paper"/financially/from a business perspective and the way these schemes operate in practice (there's a lot of marketing to try and make you feel rewarded for making the decision to fly with a particular airline - and there's an undeniable relationship feeling with legacy FFPs that's distinct to a rather cold revenue based rebate scheme - hence the feelings of betrayal/minor uproar when it comes to the inevitable devaluation time).

Regarding your other points - I didn't say that you didn't give them a constant flow of cash, I said that there exist some cases where you can have a frequent flier who gives EK a constant stream of cash, but once they reach a certain status threshold, they then become an ongoing loss for the airline. I illustrated that with an example of a low margin economy class flier who flew enough to gain status. Before status, this flier would yield a very small profit, but afterwards, if he/she availed themselves of the benefits of status - i.e. lounge access - they could end up costing EK money as the incremental costs to EK for that ticket have outweighed the small margin on the cheap fares. EK have devalued earnings most significantly on the cheapest economy fares more than anything else - and conversely left earnings on F relatively unscathed, which I think lends support to this theory of trying to cull potentially loss making scenarios for the airline.

I would argue that most J and F fares don't lose EK money - hence status earning opportunities, aka tier mile earnings are not so reduced (at least not to the same extent as the new Y class fare families). Lounge access and other ancillary costs are already built into the ticket - giving you status doesn't cost them any more (except perhaps if you are a Platinum in J), but the incremental cost of the DXB F lounge over the DXB J lounge is perhaps a small increase in food or lounge therapist costs. Wine is just leftover F class wine stocks, so already paid for in the wine investment program.

Changing redemption options is EKs solution to a different problem, that is, the inevitable inflation when the mileage currency supply increases much quicker than the rate that the mileage is redeemed - more miles chasing the same number of redemption options. The problem is exacerbated for EK because they don't have partners with which mileage can be used on, straight redemptions don't seem to be popular because of the surcharges (and EK refuse to remove them as they want premium cash revenue from premium redemptions, as was calculated on another thread), and the limited range of destinations on which people like to redeem - I assume people's redemptions happen on long and ULH destinations, not on the short haul routes in the ME region. This is unlike say, BA's Avios scheme where there are plenty of redemption options across the entire network, as well as through the Oneworld alliance.

So, EK has a problem in that everyone is saving them up for upgrading cabins (as High Street/partner tickets/sports tickets are poor value/hard to redeem/not taken up). If people let high balances expire, that also turns them off Skywards. But their capacity of J and F seats on routes that people want to redeem on is not keeping up with the number of miles out there. So it is inevitable that price inflation must occur if they want to keep their mileage liabilities in check whilst allowing people to redeem - after all, it is still a marketing tool and the miles need to be seen to have at least some value to them. But they can't be too valuable. That's why we see upgrade prices go up (as EK reckon most people won't be buying full flex plus tickets) but redemption prices stay the same. If prices didn't go up then you could end up with a situation where miles become so valuable as fares increase over time (due to capacity constraints) that people would be incentivised to earn miles to spend on the airline through a lower margin route (e.g. perhaps credit card spend) than the margins EK could earn from selling the seat for cash. That would lead to capacity controls on redemptions (more than we see now) - such as removing space available upgrade benefits - which would then lead ironically to making the miles worthless. Which I think would alienate more frequent fliers than just the grumblings of devaluations...

All in all, it's two things: reduced earning power to make EK make more money on fares and avoiding them losing money on some pax, and an increase in mileage redemption prices so that the liabilities on the internal balance sheet stay manageable - and keep up with what they think each seat is worth (and EK being popular/high yields also play a part in this - we'll see if the new average redemption value per mile is higher or lower after the change), but not make the miles completely worthless...

Ticketing questions
 

If I make a booking the day before the changes are implemented, and choose Bank Transfer as a method of payment, if I don't do the transfer until 1st February or later, what rules will apply?

If I have a current booking and make changes to it after 1st February, what rules will apply after the changes are made?

Now it depends on whether eK count the booking as confirmed until paid for. Can't you just credit card it to be 100% sure?

I'm not booking anymore at the moment will wait and see...

Yes, I could just book, but I suppose I was hoping that I may get a better deal after the changes.

After all we don't know how the prices will come out for the new fare categories, and some of the miles available for premium fares are actually better afterwards.

I know . . . . I'm dreaming. ;)

You won't like the flex plus prices!

I don't think I'll like the regular flex ones, let alone the flex plus.

I've got another trip to book but I'm going to wait for these fare reductions for that one:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/0...0KY0HM20150125

I never book j flex if I'm paying so my upgrades to f will be much rarer using points :mad:

Did the debate go something like:

"Shall we pass on the fuel cost savings?"
"Err, load factors are still 85%. Are you stupid?"
"Err...next agenda point"

And that was it. :D

BA have followed suit with a big devaluation :-

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/briti...b-changes.html

Lol sounds about right. Then again it could all be part of the master scam that one day will become clear to is mere mortals !

Looks like a similar model - cut benefits and therefore defend razor thin margins at the lower end of the yield spectrum (where the analysis likely is no one cares about FFPs and the competition is a straight up price war) and throw out a benefit to higher margin pax (who are likely to be in premium cabins). Also the redemption increase, doesn't look too bad as they have also bumped up the availability of reward seats to increase the amount of point sinks in their economy, so inflation isn't so rampant. Still, I expect the BA board to be vociferous in their denunciations of the devaluation...whilst still flying the airline :D (as many people on Flyertalk I imagine do...)

EDIT: The devaluation doesn't look too bad in the context that, without additional space and the multitude of earning opportunities on BA - and that they don't let Avios expire very easily - there was probably easily scope for more inflation had there not been additional availability opened up.