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Dont take this as official - and this is my own opinion based on 2+ years on EK. My regular route as many of you know is SIN-MEL-SIN. I don't buy Saver fares. But I don't think fare basis has anything to do with op-ups. It's based on status.

I have had plenty of op-ups in the past 6-months - but it is always, always dependent on an oversold Y cabin, nothing else.

The load can be 99% and you won't move forward.

As an aside, the EK loads in Asia now are up the wazoo due to the school holidays etc - so op-ups will be a plenty.

We've been trying to find out for ages now the criteria EK uses for op-ups. Is it simply status, is it a combination of status, aggregated tier miles, fare basis etc etc. No one seems to know - and if they do, they haven't been forthcoming.

We might get lucky next week when we meet the Skywards team in Dubai for the Dubai Do. You can be sure this is one of the key questions we'd like to know the answer to.

Your recent experience makes me think that if the Y cabin was really full and you missed out, was because the load controller/airport simply found the appropriate amount of Golds prior to you. They may have been oversold by only 2-3.

It's also very route dependent. I'm on the 433 next week from SIN-DXB and the flight is already oversold with the waitlist closed. The J cabin will probably have 30+ Golds, and the Y cabin will be close to the same.

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At outstations (non DXB) this could happen - the selection is often manual by the station manager.

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