TrojanTraveler

These are large reductions but don’t surprise me. I know a lot of skiers and not one is a) buying a pass or b) planning on flying on a ski trip this upcoming season. They’re just waiting to see what happens. I do know skiers who can drive to ski areas; they hope to ski but also have no intention of entering a lodge for food, etc.

NOLAnwGOLD

I have my Ikon pass! And my Mammoth cabin and can drive to it! And it's a PB&J ski year! Mammoth already has a few outdoor food stations, the food station on the backside is already an outdoor bar and walk-up grilled cheese station. They have an old jet stream that sells really good Philly cheesesteaks (with an impossible options). Also the cat that has food and beverage as well. Some minor modifications are likely needed (like touchless payment) and increasing the volume to serve in those settings.

Jetsuite X has a LAX-MMH route, I wonder if they'll pick up some of the routes too.

TrojanTraveler

I have friends that have places in Mammoth and also purchased the Ikon pass. They think that with what’s going on, the weekend crowds will be less insane. Hard to say what’s going to happen...lots of people in the CA area who would have flown to a ski area may decide to stay local and drive.

josephstern

Thanks for noting that there's no more Aspen service. I had a reservation for Feb that Delta canceled, but didn't notify me.

Fortunately, I was able to rebook on AA for fewer miles, so no big loss, but I wouldn't have realized to jump on it without your post.

DTWflyer

As a die-hard skier and also connected to people into the industry, I'll give a little bit of insight on to the upcoming winter.

Right now there is a huge amount of uncertainty going into the upcoming 20-21 ski season. They expect overall destination/travel ski visits to be down, but by how much is unknown. It will vary alot by resort and their target markets/demographics. Advanced pass sales are down and/or people waiting to see what the season will look like. The resorts are making contingency plans for potential capacity constraints, social distancing in facilities, and reservation/lottery systems access if required. Vail Resorts just announced the reservation system last week, and the other big resorts/passes will all likely publish something similar as well.

There is also a huge amount of uncertainty around the school and school break situation in the winter/spring semesters. No one knows if it will still be mostly virtual/remote, if some will be back in-person, if breaks will still fall as scheduled. Many universities have already cancelled spring break since they don't want students to come/go from their campus "bubble".

The resorts that do a lot business from driving-range traffic, in particularly most of Colorado and Utah will still get the Front Range / DEN & SLC locals respectively. The more remote and air travel dependent are a big unknown.

There is also a disproportionate amount of skiers that are 50, if not 60, 70+ that fall into the higher risk categories of the virus. They may be hesitant to travel as much.
Also, its not just the ski on-the-snow experience, its also the apres-ski and other winter activities that people like to enjoy.
Destination ski resorts really only make money for about 8 weeks out of the season. The 2-week stretch over the Christmas/ Holiday period, and the ~6 week period from mid-Feb around Presidents Day weekend until the end of March.
The die-hards, the hardcore passion bunch are a lock to ski this winter. The more casual ones, (e.g., the families from the Southeast that some years go skiing in Colorado or go to Florida for Spring Break are a big unknown. Some resorts, in particular Vail & Aspen get a sizable amount of international skiers from the UK, Mexico, and South America. There will be virtually no international destination skiers this winter.

If the ski resorts can operate reasonably well through the Holiday period, then people may try to go over the more traditional winter/spring break periods in Feb/March.
Business will be down under all scenarios. Air travel to destination resorts will be down under all scenarios. The question is to what extent.
Driving/regional traffic will probably be less impacted, but while we are still a ways out from knowing what to expect in the season ahead. extent.

TrojanTraveler

Nice summary. One thing I’m surprised at is that given so much uncertainty, I would think that Ikon et al would sell their passes with the condition they can be refunded on a pro rata basis. I’d be more inclined to buy a pass again under those conditions. Though lack of DL airlift into MTJ, EGE and ASE means paying other airlines the normal overpriced fares.

jja34-1

Ikon is doing something like this. If the pass is completely unused the value can be applied to 21/22. They are also offering a proportional credit for a 21/22 pass. A passholder can select whether they want the credit to be based on any Ikon resort or one particular resort. Terms and conditions vary based on the selection.

I can't find the Ts&Cs of my pass for JH, but I remember seeing a reference to no refunds being given for COVID. I assume that's if they open and end up closing for some days, rather than a complete failure to open. Will have to look when their web site is back up. I think there may be a lot of disappointed season pass holders at various mountains who didn't read the terms when they purchased a pass...

third_wave

Even before this news, I was always surprised at how poor Delta's ski service was from its Midwestern hubs at MSP and DTW. There is surely a decent amount of local demand, plus these locations are geographically well positioned to send skiers from throughout the Midwest and Northeast to JAC, ASE, HDN, EGE, MTJ, SUN, and RNO.

These cancellations are particularly frustrating given the following:
1. Leisure travelers like skiers and beach-goers may be the only traffic Delta can count on during the lean winter months.
2. Other airlines are actually adding service to ski destinations for the upcoming winter.

DLASflyer

Completely agree. If Delta can't make a place like Jackson Hole work right now, what is it even doing? July JAC enplanements were down 46 percent from the year before, significantly better than the national average. August isn't out yet but I suspect enplanements were down only 20-30 percent from a normal summer. United, Alaska and American will be flying more seats than ever here this winter while Delta abandons four of six routes.

emma dog

It could be that they're avoiding a fare war by not competing with UA and AA into these places. E.g. they estimate way too many seats being sent to those airports for the demand.

jja34-1

Given the ski resort's announcement yesterday I think it may be possible a lot of those seats won't be filled. Perhaps Delta made a pre-emptive decision.

third_wave

Are you referring to the limits on the number of day tickets sold? I think most flying in from outside would be using a pass product like Ikon or Mountain Collective. I don't think Ikon has announced any reservation system yet. For Mountain Collective there will be no reservations needed per the FAQ.

jja34-1

[Deleted. Incorrect info.]

DLASflyer

This is not correct. Mountain Collective passholders will have unrestricted access to use their two or three days. Additional 50 percent off days will be subject to day ticket availability. Ikon Pass reservation details have not been announced by Alterra for any resort.

jja34-1

Thank you for so kindly pointing this out. I did not know there were FAQ. I did think it quite interesting that JHMR only referred to JHMR passes in the announcement.