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How will Alaska and American's new partnership affect Delta?

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How will Alaska and American's new partnership affect Delta?

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Old Feb 19, 2020, 11:21 pm
  #91  
 
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There's not much DL can or will do I think beyond what they've done - grown their domestic network and upgauge existing routes. SEA is gate-constrained and POS allocates gates based on passengers flown (IIRC - or flights - forgot). DL doesn't have the planes to fly to exotic locations in Asia - TPE is probably most likely but even then chances are remote considering BR's presence and DL's estranged relationship with CI. We probably won't see another European destination until they go 2x daily on SEA-AMS year-round.
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Old Feb 20, 2020, 4:34 am
  #92  
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Originally Posted by jrl767
not at all "inexplicably" ... the AA/AS divorce was a condition of AS acquiring VX
Which makes me wonder why they think DOT will magically allow them to work together now.
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Old Feb 20, 2020, 12:00 pm
  #93  
 
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Originally Posted by ab2013
There's not much DL can or will do I think beyond what they've done - grown their domestic network and upgauge existing routes. SEA is gate-constrained and POS allocates gates based on passengers flown (IIRC - or flights - forgot). DL doesn't have the planes to fly to exotic locations in Asia - TPE is probably most likely but even then chances are remote considering BR's presence and DL's estranged relationship with CI. We probably won't see another European destination until they go 2x daily on SEA-AMS year-round.
I could see DL making a response at PDX or LAX. As in, maybe DL will add PDX-ICN in response. Just as likely would be DL conceding PDX-LHR to BA, moving the LHR slot somewhere else (RDU?), and launching PDX-CDG instead.

To me the bigger question is if DL will follow AA in chasing after west coast to India routes, and from where if they do (SEA or LAX). India is a tough place to make money flying to, and given the uncertainties of overflying China, Russia, or the Middle East to get there, disruptions are always a concern.
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Old Feb 20, 2020, 12:52 pm
  #94  
 
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Originally Posted by kavok
I could see DL making a response at PDX or LAX. As in, maybe DL will add PDX-ICN in response. Just as likely would be DL conceding PDX-LHR to BA, moving the LHR slot somewhere else (RDU?), and launching PDX-CDG instead.

To me the bigger question is if DL will follow AA in chasing after west coast to India routes, and from where if they do (SEA or LAX). India is a tough place to make money flying to, and given the uncertainties of overflying China, Russia, or the Middle East to get there, disruptions are always a concern.
I doubt DL will be in a race to set money on fire flying to India from SEA.

I would bet there is only a 50% chance that flight either doesn't happen, or runs a very short time. It sounds like a route designed to grab attention and maybe some of the tech people will fly it. But that plane is going to have to be very full up front every day with paid fares if it's to last.
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Old Feb 20, 2020, 1:52 pm
  #95  
 
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Originally Posted by flyerCO
Which makes me wonder why they think DOT will magically allow them to work together now.
I don't think it was a forever thing. I think they were required to end cooperation/codesharing on some competitive routes for a period of time, which is coming to a close in the next few years.
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Old Feb 20, 2020, 2:09 pm
  #96  
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There is this note about the expanded codeshare relationship in the SEC filings --

"The implementation of the expanded relationship and other arrangements described herein is subject to the negotiation and execution of definitive documentation and governmental review."
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Old Feb 20, 2020, 2:18 pm
  #97  
 
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Originally Posted by kavok
I could see DL making a response at PDX or LAX. As in, maybe DL will add PDX-ICN in response. Just as likely would be DL conceding PDX-LHR to BA, moving the LHR slot somewhere else (RDU?), and launching PDX-CDG instead.
I doubt they will dump LHR, but I selfishly hope the rest of what you say is true.

there is a Tremendous amount of traffic that connects PDX-SEA-XXX. Delta adding a few more frequencies to hubs, fill in PDX with a few more routes like ICN (so desperately needed) is a solid way to try to keep west coast fliers on DL and not OW.

that said, never underestimate the willingness of a Mileage Plan member to make multiple connections if it keep them on a MP earning carrier....

My money is mostly staying with Delta, but I also hope they haves strong response here with added service on west coast.
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Old Feb 20, 2020, 5:27 pm
  #98  
 
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Originally Posted by WestCoastPDX
I doubt they will dump LHR, but I selfishly hope the rest of what you say is true.

there is a Tremendous amount of traffic that connects PDX-SEA-XXX. Delta adding a few more frequencies to hubs, fill in PDX with a few more routes like ICN (so desperately needed) is a solid way to try to keep west coast fliers on DL and not OW.

that said, never underestimate the willingness of a Mileage Plan member to make multiple connections if it keep them on a MP earning carrier....

My money is mostly staying with Delta, but I also hope they haves strong response here with added service on west coast.
Once the current Asian coronavirus crisis has subsided and normal travel has resumed, I think PDX-ICN would be a really successful route for Delta, even if they have to operate it with a 767 to make the economics work.
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Old Feb 20, 2020, 7:54 pm
  #99  
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Originally Posted by BenA
Once the current Asian coronavirus crisis has subsided and normal travel has resumed, I think PDX-ICN would be a really successful route for Delta, even if they have to operate it with a 767 to make the economics work.
Are there people willing to fly TPAC in J on a 767?
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Old Feb 20, 2020, 8:28 pm
  #100  
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Originally Posted by kavok
I could see DL making a response at PDX or LAX. As in, maybe DL will add PDX-ICN in response. Just as likely would be DL conceding PDX-LHR to BA, moving the LHR slot somewhere else (RDU?), and launching PDX-CDG instead.

To me the bigger question is if DL will follow AA in chasing after west coast to India routes, and from where if they do (SEA or LAX). India is a tough place to make money flying to, and given the uncertainties of overflying China, Russia, or the Middle East to get there, disruptions are always a concern.
No chance LHR slot comes to RDU. While personally I would love it, clearly RDU is a mixed bag internationally. The CDG isn’t daily, in fact I have to go to Dubai in a few weeks and leaving on a Sunday there is no RDU - CDG flight (there is an IND - CDG interestingly which is what I’ll likely take) and my last trip back from Europe I had to go via AMS and BOS on a Thursday because no CDG flight.

The good news for me is at least I can go DXB - CDG - RDU on the return, but VS just isn’t strong enough to run RDU - LHR against AA/BA
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Old Feb 20, 2020, 9:32 pm
  #101  
 
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Originally Posted by BenA
Once the current Asian coronavirus crisis has subsided and normal travel has resumed, I think PDX-ICN would be a really successful route for Delta, even if they have to operate it with a 767 to make the economics work.
PDX-ICN is long overdue. I really think they should have announced this after they transferred PDX-NRT to -HND. I know a lot of people from Eastern Oregon and beyond who drive all the way to PDX to visit Asia! Now there's no incentive to as flying out from PDX will end up being a two-stop flight, if say you're flying to BKK or SIN. It looks as though (from some A.net threads) that PDX-NRT may come to life again with ZipAir (JL LCC), with feed from AS!

Originally Posted by cmd320
Are there people willing to fly TPAC in J on a 767?
Not me, or my family! I flew it NRT-MNL-NRT, and found the seats quite narrow (and I have a small build), with little privacy. My brothers swore they would never fly DL's 767s longhaul again!

But I think lots of budget conscious travelers don't mind if they're in Y.
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Old Feb 20, 2020, 9:52 pm
  #102  
 
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Originally Posted by cmd320
Are there people willing to fly TPAC in J on a 767?
I do paid J on DL 767s out of PDX regularly to AMS and NRT. Not each month, but every other usually.

It’s fine.
I much more value the non-stop aspect than an airline with more bling.

I always decline dinner, go to bed and as long as the bed goes flat - no problems - happy to pay.

Last edited by WestCoastPDX; Feb 20, 2020 at 10:15 pm
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Old Feb 21, 2020, 11:34 am
  #103  
 
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Originally Posted by cmd320
Are there people willing to fly TPAC in J on a 767?
Once we all step out of the FT bubble, I bet most biz travelers wouldn't care. I did J on SEA-ICN and it was fine. Sure, I'd prefer the A330/777/350 at this point, but it's still J. So long as it's priced appropriately, I don't think most people whose companies pay for J will really take an extra stop over a non-stop in J, regardless of the aircraft. (Especially once the 767 cabins are all retrofitted)
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Old Feb 21, 2020, 11:57 am
  #104  
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I really like the 2-3-2 seating in Y on the 767, but never had the chance to fly it in J.

I do do wonder if DL will build up their presence a little more in PDX as a result of the AA/AS partnership.
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Old Feb 22, 2020, 5:01 am
  #105  
 
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There was a comment early in the thread about a lot of the opportunity being around corporate accounts, and I think this is true to an extent.

That said, AS and DL already have VERY strong corporate relationships with the big employers here in Seattle. There are dedicated check-in desks for Amazon and Microsoft employees (whether the flight is corporate or personal) from both airlines and both airlines are already pretty aggressive in vying for corporate dollars, especially on competing routes. As a corporate flyer based in SEA, it’s not difficult to earn elite status on both airlines (though I fell off from AS last year). I have no desire to fly AA, but I am envious of the OW international partners and may consider shifting some of my miles/spend to AS next year after it officially joins OW. (I’m relatively small-time and do about 150k BIS and $50k spend a year across carriers.)

I’m sure that companies that have a stronger partnership with AA might find the new AA routes (SEA-BLR) advantageous, but to my knowledge, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook all have near-equal partnerships with all the major airlines. There are exceptions, of course (Apple definitely prefers UA and I know Disney used to prefer UA but I think it is now also a big Delta flyer), but most of the companies that spend eight or nine figures a year on employee travel diversify. If the code-share can help entice corporate clients to use AA, that’s obviously good for them, but it’s not like those big corporate accounts don’t have plenty of options.

I’m confused about SEA-BLR. I get the rationale, but seeing how hard India has been for every non-ME3 carrier, I do wonder about the route demand, assuming AA wants it to actually be profitable. In tech anyway, BLR or BOM isn’t like PEK or PVG, where you could fill an entire plane with just J pax on a daily basis. Manufacturing doesn’t happen the same way or at the same scale and frankly, the market opportunities are just different.

Still, as an SEA flyer, this news makes me hopeful that there will be some aggressive fare competes coming so that I can benefit.
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