which routing SEA-xxx-MCO best chance for upgrade?
Jan 4, 2011, 7:36 am
#17
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: MCO
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Wow - thanks to EVERYONE for chiming in. Flyertalk never ceases to amaze me.
I was definitely surprised that we had such good luck with 3 out of 4 UG on the SEA-ATL flights 2-3 weeks ago, as it was my expectation that that would be a problem, as most of you have suggested (we were connecting on to STT, and we got 3 out of 4 on that half too). Obviously we were right on the cutoff twice, when I got UG and Mrs Huge did not (I took the first one and tried to trade with her but she was sleeping, stretched across *the entire empty exit row* on SEA-ATL redeye, and then she took the second one STT-ATL, and when she tried to trade with me the FA wouldn't let her). When we both got UG in advance was ATL-SEA December 22, Wednesday, not a redeye, pretty close to XMAS - don't know if that explains anything. And again, we're both lowly Silvers.
Anyway, in spite of our recent experience, I'll try to stay away from ATL
Clearly MEM,MSP,SLC are getting the most votes, with some different leanings within those but maybe SLC getting the most favor overall. I'll try to choose between those three based on schedule and layover.
RobOnLI - I never saw those other cities come up, but I haven't been exhaustive about it (and you're not really pushing them as likely anyway). And I'm never seeing those two stop routings you mentioned. Newb question: what's the best/easiest way to explore routings that don't show up using something like Kayak? I've just started using the ITA software, so I'm eager to learn more about that.
I guess the other thing I should have considered was whether I could construct a routing that would significantly increase mileage. I'd rather not add a layover just to increase my UG chances, but I might do it to get an extra 1000 MQMs.
[EDIT: just figured out how to find other routings, by just looking at one-way flights on Kayak, all those other cities show up, plus some 2-stop routings, but they're all more expensive. Best for miles looks like SEA-MSP-LGA-MCO, but it's $80 more, redeye, and 4.5 hours more travel time. But there are two viable SLC routings - 6AM and 1:05PM departures from SEA]
Thanks again for everyone's replies - much appreciated.
I was definitely surprised that we had such good luck with 3 out of 4 UG on the SEA-ATL flights 2-3 weeks ago, as it was my expectation that that would be a problem, as most of you have suggested (we were connecting on to STT, and we got 3 out of 4 on that half too). Obviously we were right on the cutoff twice, when I got UG and Mrs Huge did not (I took the first one and tried to trade with her but she was sleeping, stretched across *the entire empty exit row* on SEA-ATL redeye, and then she took the second one STT-ATL, and when she tried to trade with me the FA wouldn't let her). When we both got UG in advance was ATL-SEA December 22, Wednesday, not a redeye, pretty close to XMAS - don't know if that explains anything. And again, we're both lowly Silvers.
Anyway, in spite of our recent experience, I'll try to stay away from ATL
Clearly MEM,MSP,SLC are getting the most votes, with some different leanings within those but maybe SLC getting the most favor overall. I'll try to choose between those three based on schedule and layover.
RobOnLI - I never saw those other cities come up, but I haven't been exhaustive about it (and you're not really pushing them as likely anyway). And I'm never seeing those two stop routings you mentioned. Newb question: what's the best/easiest way to explore routings that don't show up using something like Kayak? I've just started using the ITA software, so I'm eager to learn more about that.
I guess the other thing I should have considered was whether I could construct a routing that would significantly increase mileage. I'd rather not add a layover just to increase my UG chances, but I might do it to get an extra 1000 MQMs.
[EDIT: just figured out how to find other routings, by just looking at one-way flights on Kayak, all those other cities show up, plus some 2-stop routings, but they're all more expensive. Best for miles looks like SEA-MSP-LGA-MCO, but it's $80 more, redeye, and 4.5 hours more travel time. But there are two viable SLC routings - 6AM and 1:05PM departures from SEA]
Thanks again for everyone's replies - much appreciated.
Jan 4, 2011, 7:40 am
#18
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: The Frontier
Programs: Some
Posts: 185
When I was a GM I never cleared and always sat in Y on the 6:00am flights from SEA-SLC - typically I flew this on Tuesdays and Thursdays; sometimes the route would be a 757. Just my experience though - I can't comment on the 1:00pm flights.
Jan 4, 2011, 8:25 am
#19
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: MCO
Programs: DL DM/MM, Marriott Plat Premier, HH Diamond, Hyatt Plat, Hertz PC
Posts: 4,081
IMO SLC is a tougher UG than MEM. However, that might balance out because of the smaller F cabin through MEM.
OP, if you were lucky enough to pick up an UG through ATL, you just might be lucky enough to pick up another through either city. Good luck! ^
OP, if you were lucky enough to pick up an UG through ATL, you just might be lucky enough to pick up another through either city. Good luck! ^
Jan 4, 2011, 8:48 am
#20
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: MCO
Programs: DL-DM/1MM, HILTON-DIA, .HYATT-DIA/GLOB , IHG-PLT,HERTZ 5*, NATIONAL ES
Posts: 8,691
I would suggest MEM or MSP. As long as the weather is not out of this world bad, MSP handles cold and snow pretty well.
When I was a GM I never cleared and always sat in Y on the 6:00am flights from SEA-SLC - typically I flew this on Tuesdays and Thursdays; sometimes the route would be a 757. Just my experience though - I can't comment on the 1:00pm flights.
When I was a GM I never cleared and always sat in Y on the 6:00am flights from SEA-SLC - typically I flew this on Tuesdays and Thursdays; sometimes the route would be a 757. Just my experience though - I can't comment on the 1:00pm flights.
MSP handles weather better than any other DL hub, so usually weather/snow does not inhibit MSP as a choice for me.
If the OP is feeling luck, they should do SEA-MCO on AS. Chance of U/G 1 in 1 million!!!
Jan 4, 2011, 8:59 am
#21
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Location: Minneapolis: DL DM charter 2.3MM
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I don't have much experience with this specific route, but as a general principle, routes through the MEM or CVG hubs have the best upgrade chances and ATL the worst on average. MCO is generally a leisure route but sometimes has large conferences; leisure means few elites but some paid/miles upgrades of families which if there's a large meeting, all flight space will be tight and there could be lots of elites or paid FC fares. (There's a similar phenomena at LAS.)
As someone suggested, if you can creatively route through a focus city, your upgrade chances could imporove.
However, as others have said, a lot depends on the days of the week and times of day you are travelling. Also, some aircraft types have more favorable ratios of FC to coach seats.
As someone suggested, if you can creatively route through a focus city, your upgrade chances could imporove.
However, as others have said, a lot depends on the days of the week and times of day you are travelling. Also, some aircraft types have more favorable ratios of FC to coach seats.
Jan 4, 2011, 12:07 pm
#22
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Location: Seattle
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This thread is turning into a woolly beast, but I'm having fun with it!
So now the votes are surging for MSP or MEM over SLC. I guess since I'm flying to Florida someone has to make the election/recount joke. OH my god ... I can do even better ... not only am I flying to Florida, but I'm going there to play in the "CHAD Brown Poker Series" ... get it? ... hanging/dimpled/pregnant "chads"? OK, I'll stop.
So as a very unscientific experiment I'm looking at first-class tickets for flights today and tomorrow SEA-MCO on the different routings we're talking about. I'm just looking on Kayak, so I'm guessing there's a better way to do it (ITA? I don't have ExpertFlyer). A couple things have come up that are interesting/confusing:
- If I force it to look at flights today, it only shows ATL connections. There are a couple of non-ATL routings still left for today, but I assume that means that F is sold out on them, and only available on ATL. Obviously that doesn't mean that ATL is better for UG - but interesting. I'll look again tomorrow earlier in the morning when the early non-ATL routes haven't departed yet.
- Some flights show up as fare code F0 and some as YA00UPMC. Some show both ways (with one having a later connecting flight) and the numbers of F seats available will be different. I assume that YA00UPMC is a Y->upgrade fare or something that is cheaper to purchase?
And then on tomorrow's flights here are the numbers, where X/Y means seats available in 1st on the SEA-XXX/XXX-MCO legs:
12:50AM MSP 4/6 F0
6:00AM SLC 5/3 YA00UPMC
6:00AM LAX 2/2 F0
6:10AM ATL 2/2 F0
6:30AM JFK 9+/3 YA00UPMC (9+!!)
7:10AM MSP 2/1 YA00UPMC
8:30AM ATL 9+/4 F0
8:30AM ATL 9+/9+ F0 (later connecting flt)
8:32AM MSP 2/3 YA00UPMC
9:10AM DTW 1/4 YA00UPMC
11:43AM ATL 9+/1 F0/BA00UPNJ
12:27PM MSP 2/3 YA00UPMC
12:40PM MSP 3/3 F0
1:25PM ATL 7/8 YA00UPMC
10:55PM ATL 3/2 YA00UPMC
11:15PM DTW 2/5 F0
I know this isn't all that helpful, since it's just what's available for purchase and we don't know how many elites there are on any flight that haven't been UG'd yet, etc etc. But I did think it was interesting that two of the SEA-ATL flights show 9+ F seats available (and one shows 7) while all the other routings are lower. I'm certainly not going to trust that over everyone here saying that ATL is the worst choice, and I'm perfectly happy to be told why these numbers are completely misleading/worthless.
Is there any way to find out how many people got upgraded on specific flights in the last few days? That would obviously be much more relevant data.
So now the votes are surging for MSP or MEM over SLC. I guess since I'm flying to Florida someone has to make the election/recount joke. OH my god ... I can do even better ... not only am I flying to Florida, but I'm going there to play in the "CHAD Brown Poker Series" ... get it? ... hanging/dimpled/pregnant "chads"? OK, I'll stop.
So as a very unscientific experiment I'm looking at first-class tickets for flights today and tomorrow SEA-MCO on the different routings we're talking about. I'm just looking on Kayak, so I'm guessing there's a better way to do it (ITA? I don't have ExpertFlyer). A couple things have come up that are interesting/confusing:
- If I force it to look at flights today, it only shows ATL connections. There are a couple of non-ATL routings still left for today, but I assume that means that F is sold out on them, and only available on ATL. Obviously that doesn't mean that ATL is better for UG - but interesting. I'll look again tomorrow earlier in the morning when the early non-ATL routes haven't departed yet.
- Some flights show up as fare code F0 and some as YA00UPMC. Some show both ways (with one having a later connecting flight) and the numbers of F seats available will be different. I assume that YA00UPMC is a Y->upgrade fare or something that is cheaper to purchase?
And then on tomorrow's flights here are the numbers, where X/Y means seats available in 1st on the SEA-XXX/XXX-MCO legs:
12:50AM MSP 4/6 F0
6:00AM SLC 5/3 YA00UPMC
6:00AM LAX 2/2 F0
6:10AM ATL 2/2 F0
6:30AM JFK 9+/3 YA00UPMC (9+!!)
7:10AM MSP 2/1 YA00UPMC
8:30AM ATL 9+/4 F0
8:30AM ATL 9+/9+ F0 (later connecting flt)
8:32AM MSP 2/3 YA00UPMC
9:10AM DTW 1/4 YA00UPMC
11:43AM ATL 9+/1 F0/BA00UPNJ
12:27PM MSP 2/3 YA00UPMC
12:40PM MSP 3/3 F0
1:25PM ATL 7/8 YA00UPMC
10:55PM ATL 3/2 YA00UPMC
11:15PM DTW 2/5 F0
I know this isn't all that helpful, since it's just what's available for purchase and we don't know how many elites there are on any flight that haven't been UG'd yet, etc etc. But I did think it was interesting that two of the SEA-ATL flights show 9+ F seats available (and one shows 7) while all the other routings are lower. I'm certainly not going to trust that over everyone here saying that ATL is the worst choice, and I'm perfectly happy to be told why these numbers are completely misleading/worthless.
Is there any way to find out how many people got upgraded on specific flights in the last few days? That would obviously be much more relevant data.
Jan 4, 2011, 12:18 pm
#23
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: MCO
Programs: DL DM/MM, Marriott Plat Premier, HH Diamond, Hyatt Plat, Hertz PC
Posts: 4,081
IMCO is generally a leisure route but sometimes has large conferences; leisure means few elites but some paid/miles upgrades of families which if there's a large meeting, all flight space will be tight and there could be lots of elites or paid FC fares. (There's a similar phenomena at LAS.)
Sometimes it was frustrating as a Plat, especially through ATL, but seems to be okay as a DM. Would hate to be hoping for this UG as a FO but stranger things have happened.
Jan 4, 2011, 2:47 pm
#24
Join Date: Sep 2009
Programs: Waffle House DM
Posts: 467
Clearly MEM,MSP,SLC are getting the most votes, with some different leanings within those but maybe SLC getting the most favor overall. I'll try to choose between those three based on schedule and layover.
1. MSP - Check the weather - if a big storm is due (like 3 weeks ago)
then avoid it. Also quite a long routing.
2. MEM - Good route, but usually done on A320's. Never any IFE if this is ever a factor for you. Getting the U/G usually trumps the lack of IFE.
Jan 4, 2011, 7:31 pm
#25
Original Poster
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Location: Seattle
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Well, I may end up flying to JAX instead of MCO - just realized that it's only $40 more each way (I thought I had looked yesterday and determined that it was more of a difference) and will be more convenient. I'm guessing that almost everything accumulated in this thread will still apply, except that some of the connecting aircraft might be different. And it opens up the possibility of taking a redeye through LGA *AND* MSP, not so great for upgrades I'm guessing, nor my sleep/sanity, but I would get more MQMs!! Actually that flight might be pretty good for me, getting there at 4:51PM.
On that routing, the second flight says "operated by COMair Dba Delta Connection" ... what does that mean in terms of possible upgrade?
On that routing, the second flight says "operated by COMair Dba Delta Connection" ... what does that mean in terms of possible upgrade?
Jan 4, 2011, 7:44 pm
#26
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: MCO
Programs: DL-DM/1MM, HILTON-DIA, .HYATT-DIA/GLOB , IHG-PLT,HERTZ 5*, NATIONAL ES
Posts: 8,691
Absolutely correct. Conferences, which are frequent, often bring in elites and I suspect more than a few actually pay for F. Some will upgrade family members as well. Add to your examples the famiies of 2 or 3 (or 4?) who fly on F award tix and MCO can be a problem for Medallions.
Sometimes it was frustrating as a Plat, especially through ATL, but seems to be okay as a DM. Would hate to be hoping for this UG as a FO but stranger things have happened.
Sometimes it was frustrating as a Plat, especially through ATL, but seems to be okay as a DM. Would hate to be hoping for this UG as a FO but stranger things have happened.
Jan 4, 2011, 8:05 pm
#27
Original Poster
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in general on a routing like this, all other things being equal, are you more likely to score an upgrade (as a Silver or Gold) on a redeye overnight flight?
related question ... if you take a redeye, would you still say that ATL is worst for UG possibility? I can imagine that the patterns change, both on redeye flights themselves, and on the early morning flights out of ATL that are likely to be carrying a lot of redeye travelers, and maybe not as many business folk?
related question ... if you take a redeye, would you still say that ATL is worst for UG possibility? I can imagine that the patterns change, both on redeye flights themselves, and on the early morning flights out of ATL that are likely to be carrying a lot of redeye travelers, and maybe not as many business folk?