DL2SXM

Plus, there are so many people on an UG list nowadays, its not even funny.

javabytes

The chances are slim. Elite lists are fuller than ever. I think if anything, you would get DTW-LGA and none of the others, but I think the chances of that are still low.

53flyer

LGA-MSP: A320 8 am 17.683%

MSP-ORD crj900 1pm 26.538%

ORD-DTW: a319 4:30 pm 37.208%

DTW-LGA: a319 7:30 pm 24.679%

** NOTE: Margin of error is +/- 100%

Digital01

ONT --> ATL PM, Reserve, K Fare - this sunday.

Just curious because I've never missed an upgrade at the window on this route before...even as a silver. Flying this route on Sunday. Just made Platinum for the first time. Also have the Reserve card on a K fare. Still showing F9, are they just holding them back because it's the one direct to ATL on a sunday? Think I still have a pretty good chance?

Thanks!

Sez_Who

If there is any method to DL's madness about which flts they hold back on window UG's and which they don't, I sure haven't figured it out. Got spoiled like you at the window but have had a couple flts where the UG was held back for what seemed to be no reason.

Yeah, you still have a good chance. Hang in there. ^

Digital01

Thanks! Just surprised me to get upgraded DTW - LAX at window there then not the flight I'm used getting upgraded every time!

Ti22

I think they just like to test if you'll freak out or not. I'm running pretty close to 100% UG on my normal route this year but every 5-6 trips they just seem to ignore the window and keep me wondering until close to departure. Even with plenty of FC inventory available for booking on the website.

It's called complimentary for reason, I suppose...

GYEWorldTraveler

Fridays are tough. I personally think you have a better chance on a PHX-SLC flight than a SLC-MCO. From an L to a K fare it couldn't be much more than $50-100 RT and then you could at least use the miles to lock in the UGs as they both have G space right now. But if you are going to do it, it better be before the DM/PM window hits 5 *technically 6* days before as G will likely be zeroed out at that point. I am curious to see how it goes but definitely I would recommend snagging a nice exit row seat because I'm thinking thats where you will be if hoping for the domestic complimentary UG. I'd say your chances are probably about 25% PHX-SLC and 10% SLC-MCO

ma91pmh

well to answer my own question fyi i got upgraded at the window so thankfully no coach red-eye!

monitor

it is my thinking that the algorithm that they use to provide upgrade seats very heavily depends on the amount of FC seats that are sold early on. Most of the time that adjusts before the window but occasionally, when somebody buys a seat at a strategic time, the algorithm burps and does not allow any more V or X.
Let us agree to disagree. This weekly Florida flyer thinks that Friday, weekdays, anytime, there are always lots of upgrades available on Florida flights. The clientele for those flights are generally tourist class with not a high percentage of Medallions. I was nearly 100% on them when I first started with DL and moved up to to 100% as PM and now DM. Let us await stylo4444's update.

GYEWorldTraveler

Alright. I'm just being realistic though. V and G was zeroed out for DL1180 per EF yesterday before the UG window hit for FOs for this fridays SLC-MCO flight and FC seat map is showing full. That would mean that no FOs are being UGed on this Fridays flight. With all the schedule cutbacks, there will be more elites on each flight. I know several DMs and PMs who have been missing UGs flying LAX-ATL-MCO or SFO-ATL-MCO that now use LAX-SLC-MCO and SFO-SLC-MCO to return home because the UGs are much easier to come by as a top tier elite on those flights than the ATL ones.

Plus all but one of the "P" seats show as taken taken on 9/23s SLC-MCO flight per EF and delta.com seatmap which would indicate that it is full of elites. That usually is not a good sign for an FO. I guess I could be wrong but if I was a betting man, I would bet that stylo4444 will be sitting in coach on the SLC-MCO flight next friday based on this information.

Sez_Who

Don't know what you mean by "always lots of upgrades" but then, maybe it is a bit different in S. Florida. True, Orlando is seen by most as Kettle Heaven but there are a few reasons that UG's are not always that simple.

1) It is not all that unusual for a family of four to purchase F award tix, making an UG a bit difficult in those 16-seat F cabins.

2) While MCO might be seen as a tourist destination by most, it actually has one of the largest convention centers in the country. There are many biz travelers who actually purchase F tix and others who are bumped because of their status and Y-fare tix.

3) Some elites don't want to take a chance to miss an UG so they use miles to lock it in.

4) Seems that on nearly all my flts, there are kettles in F due to IROPS. My favorite was a guy in 1D who asked the FA, "You mean all the drinks are free here?" If free hooch builds customer loyalty, DL has a new pax for life.

5) There are a fair number of DM/PM elites at MCO. While I have never failed to receive an UG into/out of MCO since hitting DM, I suspect it is only a probability (but far from guarantee) for PM. Anything below, may be a tossup.

Sundays and Fridays are the worst travel days into/out of MCO. Midweek like Tue or Wed should offer pretty decent chances. Other days, it depends.

CMK10

Monday October 24th, Silver on T fares

DL 2046 PHX-ATL 1532-2210 757
DL 1083 ATL-RDU 2250-0011 M88

I'm thinking I have a decent to good shot on the PHX-ATL leg and a possible shot at the ATL-RDU leg. Sound about right?

ma91pmh

Chances are probably OK being the last flight of the day but the RDU-ATL-RDU route is very busy and the one I miss the most upgrades on as a PM.

CMK10

Don't I know it. I've been 44th on ATL-RDU on a 757, 51st on an M88 and a mere 10th or so on RDU-ATL once. I'm thinking that because it's the last flight of the day I have a shot, especially if people get SDC-happy.