akr1970akr

Travel spending cratered

akr1970akr

Interesting macro data on what is happening in card spending

https://institute.jpmorganchase.com/...se-to-covid-19

I've been getting a lot of spending offers on my cards, and presumably this explains why

My spend pretty much mirrors these national averages

rasheed

I think Visa, MC and AmEx earnings transcripts recently have indicated similar messaging. A couple of pieces here I would feel differently.

One, the extent of ongoing reductions since when Chase stopped pulling data (mid/early April) is important. I think April and arguably May attitudes toward spending are important. Did retail (online, etc.) rebound or stay depressed? UI probably started to arrive as well.

Two, I feel restaurants should have been considered essential. Mostly because restaurant spending switching over to groceries should be compared more directly (or even trying to maintain use of restaurants).

Three, not considering debit card spending doesn't make sense.

tmiw

Considering the current unemployment rate, I doubt there was much in the way of rebound (if any at all). We'll have to see once more stuff opens but I wouldn't be surprised if spending in those other categories remains depressed for quite some time.

Personally, I've gotten more in the way of low purchase/balance transfer APR offers from major issuers (outside what's already been discussed from the likes of Citi and Chase re: temporary new bonus categories).

akr1970akr

Delta came out on their earnings call and said that spending on their cobranded cards is not any 'worse' than what Amex is already seeing. So they claim they are NOT seeing a shift in their card holders putting spend on general cards vs airline pts earning ones.

Not sure that I totally believe that, but they said they've seen the data. Presumably if there was a reduction they would start goosing up the spend incentives.

rasheed

JP Morgan newly published somewhere (I can't find their research/institute link for the latest research) where they are again harvesting through their Chase customer transactions. This time they are using the CNP concept (essentially online/phone transactions versus in-person transactions). Naturally, there is always some issue such as in this case it would't capture takeout when paid in-person very well, but I don't think anything is surprising here.

Can this data be used to more quickly identify concerns before testing data? Maybe, but I feel we already missed the window on these curve rise that have happened over the past few weeks. I found more interesting how higher growths in grocery shopping (which would presume to decrease use of restaurants assuming a fixed food budget) indicated better virus spread control.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this...rus-cases.html