As a data point.

Wife was able to score bonus 50k on SW Premier card 2x within the 24 month time frame.

I tried a Citi Premier TY within the 18 month disclaimer and was denied 50k bonus.

This is recently.

Like the legend of the Phoenix
All ends with beginnings
What keeps MS spinning
The force from the beginning

We've come too far to give up who we are
So let's raise the bar and our cards to the stars

As the economy improves, banks will get more restrictive.

When the economy tanks again, bonuses will come back stronger than ever as banks fight for a shrinking pool of quality customers.

See 2008-2010 glory days as a reference.

The only surprise in all this is how long banks let this all go on nearly unabated for so long. I think the growing number of miles/points bloggers looking for commissions is what ultimately turned this narrow niche of miles-collecting hobbiests into the mainstream, nearly common knowledge game it is today and that's forcing banks to start shutting down the wide open loopholes that so many more have now been taking advantage of. The 2-edged sword that bloggers bring to the game is what has and what will ultimately slow miles-collecting to an excruciatingly slow crawl: they have so efficiently and relentlessly enlightened travel-lovers out there to the joys of (formerly) easy credit card bonuses that the sleeping giants (banks) have finally been forced to deal with it. (Fortunately at a relatively slow pace.) I'm sure they've always been aware of the relatively few miles/credit card geeks taking advantage, but now everyone and their dog (literally, if you know what I mean) is on this now obnoxiously covered hobby of a bandwagon.
Just wondering how/why there are still as many opportunities out there for churners as there are. But not to worry. Nothing that several dozen new credit card bloggers can't fix for us...

I think the banks want new churners, they just don't want the experienced ones.

A newbie gets enticed into the hobby by the bloggers. At first, the credit card world is his oyster. He can apply for multiple cards in the first few years, and receive all sorts of wonderful bonuses....

but then one of two things happen:

1) He gets over his head. Debt starts piling, he doesn't pay off his balances each month. The ridiculously high APRs of these rewards cards hit, and the banks have a profitable customer.

2) He is successful at churning. He is not a profitable customer, and banks are less interested in having him as a customer. He begins to have a harder time acquiring cards and bonuses because of tougher rules from the banks. Eventually, he has to slow down the churn. As an unprofitable customer, it gets harder and harder to continue.

The bloggers do just fine under this scenario and serve a valuable purpose for the banks.

I do think churning will continue to be doable, just at a slower pace and with some creativity. :)

Considering the processing fees levied by the CC networks, is it really accurate to say that only the ones drowning in debt are profitable, desirable customers?

If you are a successful business owner who puts through $100K a month and never misses a payment, well, there's no interest being paid but assuming that the issuer gets a 2% cut (or whatever) of that amount, then that's a great haul.

And even for a regular salary-earning consumer, if you're a loyal user of one particular card and you put through $25K a year on a card where you basically pay for the overhead and then some through the annual fee which is normal behaviour outside of FT-world, it's hard to see how that isn't profitable for the issuer.

I agree that the customer in this second example is a desirable customer, but that would not be considered churning. :)

I don't think churning itself is done for right this minute. However, I actually see a situation where credit cards in general become more difficult and less worthwhile to use over time. I've already seen some smaller businesses who've never had limits on credit card use before start instituting minimums since they're now allowed. Businesses are also now allowed to steer customers towards debit cards and cheaper (for them) credit card products, though I haven't seen much of that yet.

And there's also the possibility of the government managing to cap credit card interchange like in Europe, which if that happens means there won't be a miles/points game at all any more.

Fair enough! But even if that big spender churned every year and never paid an AF, they would still be an attractive customer.

I'd say the name of the game if you're a CC issuer is get cards into the hands of the public... and that's why churning will probably never go away completely, even if it were to become a bit less lucrative than it is now.

Yes, bonuses do become more generous during a recession, but if these new cc rules stick, it won't matter as much to us, anyway, because we will be restricted.

You're more optimistic than I am. The changes these banks have introduced are structural in nature. They're not merely tweaks (e.g. seasonal lower bonuses, higher minimum spends, etc.). Unless these new rules are eventually rolled back, collecting miles/points won't be the same again.
I hate to sound so negative. As I stated in an earlier comment, I have only been in this game since 2012. Perhaps some of you guys have that have been collecting miles longer can enlighten me if anything similar to this has ever happened?

I agree, but at a much slower pace, which makes all the difference. It's going to be akin to taking a 50% pay cut-- you're still earning a salary, just not quite the same salary as before.

^

The shy has not fallen and I agree this thread is overly dramatic. There are so many opportunities for those willing to learn and impliment them. It is very easy to earn well into 6 figures of miles per month, plus $$$$, without even earning a single sign up bonus.

If it exists, I haven't heard of it.