According to an artice in today's New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/bu...bal/01air.html), the code shares are only available to 12 American cities. That's nothing, I would expect this to have little, if any, effect on CO.

Plus, with LH flying into both JFK and EWR, they want the connections for their pax from both NYC airports. I don't think one should reasonably expect just because CO will be in *, that all international * carriers would drop service to JFK, and go excusively to EWR. CO may wish that and AC has done this already but it was a while ago, and I'm not sure that was all, or even mostly about CO connections, but more about cost considerations since it only had 2 daily JFK flights and was contracting UA out for all ground ops, but could put those flights into its EWR ops). It doesn't make sense for the international carriers, who need a JFK presence too.

This has always bothered me. So put in a codeshare agreement and new demand is magically created, driving incremental revenue? I don't think these codeshares grow the market, so the revenue is coming from somebody else.

I ddint say that the market will grow persee, but that as you put it, that the % of the market can grow in *A favor

Sometimes it will be due to the timing of the flights, or type of equipment being used.

I have an Intl trip today where Im stuck with a 4 hr layover, free Biz tkt on DL. If I was purchasing that tkt Id look at all the other choices where I can get in before 1pm to my desination and the least amount of layover between flights, also my connecting flight is on a Regional something I wouldnt usually go with.

So now people flying to/from or Via Europe can see if B6 will help them save time or keep off Regionals. At present with either EWR or JFK a change of Terms will be required. I prefer a smooth transfer so I would probably not look at either JFK or EWR if that wasnt either my O/D and if I wasnt looking to spend some time in the NY area.

But thats me. Id sooner fly to/from MIA as much as I prefer FLL, then to have to connect anywhere. Some times theres no choice.

But anything that will add to our ability to choose different possible routings and possibly save $$ or get a free tkt cashed in on, I say "bring it on !'.

Yeah, but this will just be offset by other alliances putting in their own codeshare agreements to try and steal traffic back. I wasn't taking issue with your statement per se, but rather the airlines always seem to claim that these agreements increase revenue. I just don't understand how or why, unless they grow the market, which I don't think they do...

Or they will change the type of equipment they are using.

sort of like CO moving the 777 to *A hubs from ST hubs and replacing the 777 that went to ST hubs with a 762 or 764 or 752. Or cutting it down to 1 flight from 1+

Could be where CO will now use planes with less capacity, ST Carriers will OpUp theirs. So w/o having looked at whom uses what , say DL might use a smaller plane to FRA or MUC and change its flights into the ST hubs.

Or they can go all out and Declare WAR and it will be MRs a Plenty, then more people will fly , more seats will be filled, but most likely it will result in a neg affect on the bottom line

Well, it's the reach, and yes, the revenue is coming from somebody else. The hope is it's from a non-alliance competitor.

Let me be the first to welcome you to ConUniBlueLuft!

(the new version of ConUniHound).

Seriously, given that LH could own up to 49% of B6 as long as its shares had voting rights <=25% (kind of a "tarnished share" vs. a "golden share"?), could LH funnel enough money into B6 to fund B6 acquiring UA? Or funding a domestic JV of B6/CO/UA?

After all, B6 already has E+

I actually think this would be a good idea. B6's 320 fleet compatible with UAs, essentially similar to the 32S all-E(+ & -) ex-Ted version. B6's service levels being better than UA's, similar to CO's higher quality service (not counting irrops!). B6s' 320s and 190s fill the gap from UA's ancient 733/735s being retired, and the 190s especially provide some right-sized small-mainline lift flown by mainline pilots to replace the crummy UAX and CO Express/Connection carriers. You end up with a modern narrowbody fleet of E190, A320/319, and 737NG aircraft for right-sizing.

Wind down some duplicated domestic and international routes, rationalize the 767 and 777 routes between UA & CO, new combined airline has the UA full-flat AVOD C seats, keep the new-C 744s for as long as they make sense for certain missions.

UA pilots are happy because UAX gets wound down, mainline ALPA pilots flying E190s like they've suggested for years. CO pax are happy because E190s and a few of UA's UA-owned UAX-op CR7/E70 with F are a whole lot nicer than E145 and Q400 regionals. *A is happy because they now have a powerhouse set of hubs in the NYC area for both domestic and International, as well as a very strong North American network. Everybody's happy.

Except for US, as there's no longer any rationale for them in *A Even if they are still in for 5 years, they aren't going to be getting as much connecting and codeshare business from UA & LH as before. And DL, because this creates a US-based, 51% US-owned "Premier Global Airline" that can compete strongly against the DL/NW-AF/KL JV.

US would have to vote to approve B6 joining *A, as I believe *A membership requires unanimous approval of current full members. But I'm sure that LH, UA, CO, and B6's lawyers and M&A advisors could structure a transaction where the officially surviving airline would be UA (or CO), which would already be in *A thus not needing the vote. Just like how HP bought US but retained US's name and US's *A membership.

It is 12 cities to start but it will grow. And you should expect that in the future jetBlue will also aim to put their code on LH flights, though that is likely waiting until they upgrade their reservations system to Sabre which is scheduled for later this year and into early 2010. The codesharing will expand, but it still isn't a problem for CO.

No way B6 acquires UA, though that was definitely entertaining to read. Domestic JV is more likely and it is rather unlikely to happen, IMO.


They still offer the best coverage option in the southeast. Not a ton of business there necessarily, but I cannot imagine choosing to cede that to DL which is basically the only other player there. US also has decent coverage in the Caribbean that B6 could probably match eventually but it would take a while to get there.