Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Discontinued Programs/Partners > Continental OnePass (Pre-Merger)
Reload this Page >

[12-Feb-2009]: CO 3407 crashes while on descent into BUF

Community
Wiki Posts
Search

[12-Feb-2009]: CO 3407 crashes while on descent into BUF

 
Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old Feb 16, 2009, 2:28 pm
  #751  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 5,748
I am only a lowly PP-SEL and have never flown planes with autopilots but several things in this post seem odd.

Originally Posted by Falcon20
However, there is a risk and I can see it happening in this following scenario.

Aircraft is on autopilot holding altitude and heading. As ice accumulates on the wing, the wing begins to slowly lose lift. As the lift decreases, the nose begin to drop which is a normal reaction of any airplane.
So far seems like a possibility.
Once this happens, the autopilot, sensing a nose down trend, reacts by bringing the nose up again to level attitiude. This cycle repeast over and over throught the approach and this is all done without the pilots even noticing because it's so subtle.
If the wings have permanently lost lift from icing, the autopilot would have compensated by moving the elevators to hold the required attitude/speed and held it there rather than cycle, no? If lift decreases further, there would be continuing elevator adjustment to keep the tail down.
Since the autopilot has brought the nose up again, the airspeed has decreased a few knots (or more) each time and you (the pilot) hasn't added any power to increase airspeed.
Whatever happened to "power controls rate of descent/ascent, elevators control speed"? If the autopilot is maintaining the attitude/speed with compensating corrections on the elevator, there would be no change in speed. Isn't this what autopilots do? Also if there is decreased overall lift, the ascent rate should decrease and the autopilot would have to maintain that by increasing power, no?
All this time the autopilot has been diligently trying to counter the decreasing lift by pulling the nose higher and higher resulting in airspeed bleeding off to just a few knots above stall speed.
This does not appear realistic, the autopilot would have maintained the same attitude/speed not keep pulling the nose up. The same thing would apply if the icing was on the elevators reducing its effectiveness (and tending to pitch the nose up ... or down if the elevators in this aircraft typically keep attitude level with negative lift) and the autopilot would have compensated by changing the elevator angle of attack. No?

I am more curious about what happens when the autopilot disengages on its own as it appears to have done in this case. Would this leave the aircraft in an out of trim position requiring the pilot to apply considerable inputs that might be surprising to a pilot?

Could the initial significant pitch up reported sometime after the auto pilot disengaged be due to the disengagement of the autopilot causing an out of trim situation that caused the nose to pitch up as the pilots didn't realize the extent to which the autopilot was correcting to keep the nose down? Or alternatively could ice breaking off from the wing/tail surfaces suddenly make the compensating action on the elevators so far to keep the tail down (or nose up) cause the sudden pitch up?

If something caused that sudden pitch up which led to a stall condition, the rest of the scenario seems like what might happen to amateur pilots like me trying to get out of a stall situation so close to the ground applying over- and incorrect corrections resulting in a classic stall-spin situation as one wing stalls before the other.

Not trying to speculate what happened here either but trying to understand what the effect of an autopilot in use in adverse conditions could be in general.
venk is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 2:47 pm
  #752  
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: DCA
Programs: UA LT 1K, AA EXP, Bonvoy LT Titan, Avis PC, Hilton Gold
Posts: 9,658
Originally Posted by venk
I am only a lowly PP-SEL and have never flown planes with autopilots but several things in this post seem odd.
Sure you have. All commercial planes have them - even most private planes.
cova is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 3:04 pm
  #753  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 5,748
Originally Posted by cova
Sure you have. All commercial planes have them - even most private planes.
I meant I have never personally piloted a plane with an auto pilot in it to know how it works. The kind of private planes I pilot don't have any such gizmos.
venk is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 3:20 pm
  #754  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Programs: HH Silver, MR Plat Prem & LT Plat, Hyatt Plat,SPG Plat, Hertz PC, National EE, UA 1K
Posts: 3,405
Originally Posted by MBM3
Has it been released as to how long this crew was on duty that day? I just have a bad feeling that fatigue may have reared its ugly head....


While we are throwing out feelings...I have this burning feeling that ICING on the plane may just turn up to be the true cause.....


But again..just a "feeling".
PhillyPhlyer40 is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 3:22 pm
  #755  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Programs: HH Silver, MR Plat Prem & LT Plat, Hyatt Plat,SPG Plat, Hertz PC, National EE, UA 1K
Posts: 3,405
Originally Posted by Falcon20
As a jet pilot myself, I almost always use autopilot for approaches. Good weather and bad.


Do you disregard airline policy and allow AP to remain on during icing?
PhillyPhlyer40 is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 3:31 pm
  #756  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Homosassa, FL & Ringwood, NJ -UA-G(Lifetime); SPG-Plat (Lifetime)
Posts: 6,120
Originally Posted by PhillyPhlyer40
Do you disregard airline policy and allow AP to remain on during icing?

Airline policy is to disconnect AP in SEVERE icing, not moderate, not mild. The NTSB hyas been quite clear that at this point, they cannot establish SEVERE icing. The only comment by the pilot was 'significant' iceing. As per the NTSB, that term has no meaning in establishing the icing condition.
Vulcan is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 3:47 pm
  #757  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Programs: HH Silver, MR Plat Prem & LT Plat, Hyatt Plat,SPG Plat, Hertz PC, National EE, UA 1K
Posts: 3,405
Originally Posted by Vulcan
Airline policy is to disconnect AP in SEVERE icing, not moderate, not mild. The NTSB hyas been quite clear that at this point, they cannot establish SEVERE icing. The only comment by the pilot was 'significant' iceing. As per the NTSB, that term has no meaning in establishing the icing condition.

I was asking about YOUR statement that YOU almost always use AP in landings...good and bad weather...DO YOU leave it on in icing???


Also:
Severe http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/severe

1. harsh; unnecessarily extreme

Significant http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/significant

1. important; of consequence.


Splitting hairs???
PhillyPhlyer40 is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 3:56 pm
  #758  
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: IAH
Programs: UA Premier Gold, AA, Hertz, Avis, Marriott, Hilton HH
Posts: 372
Originally Posted by PhillyPhlyer40
Do you disregard airline policy and allow AP to remain on during icing?
I fly business jets under different rules and regs than commercial so I can't answer your question directly. Ice is generally not a factor because jets use anti-ice as opposed to de-ice. The difference being "anti"-ice does not allow ice to build up and "de"-ice takes it off after some accumulation has already occurred. There are other factors that make flying jets better for icing conditions but that's been covered elswehere in this thread.

When I used to fly turborops, and light mutli-engine aircraft, I would disconnect the autopilot on approach so I could "feel" the airplanes reactions better. However, I never experienced severe icing because I would divert or cancel a flight if I knew the approach was in jeopardy.
Falcon20 is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 3:56 pm
  #759  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Homosassa, FL & Ringwood, NJ -UA-G(Lifetime); SPG-Plat (Lifetime)
Posts: 6,120
Originally Posted by PhillyPhlyer40
I was asking about YOUR statement that YOU almost always use AP in landings...good and bad weather...DO YOU leave it on in icing???


Also:
Severe http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/severe

1. harsh; unnecessarily extreme

Significant http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/significant

1. important; of consequence.


Splitting hairs???
No offense meant, but it is not spltting hairs. You are either pregnant or not pregnant. There is no definition of ''significant icing' in any of the q400 manuals, or Colgan training, so this term as used by the pilot is irrelevant. If the NTSB cannot establish SEVERE icing, then the pilot(s) operated in accordance with their training and manuals as regards use of the autopilot. So far, NTSB has been quite clear in addressing this issue.
PS. For your reading pleasure, you may consider following this topic on the pilots board, www.pprune.org.
Vulcan is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 4:09 pm
  #760  
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: IAH
Posts: 14
Remember, there was no severe icing reported. Even if that was the case, hand flying is only “recommended” by their flight operations manual not required! With that said, the autopilot may have been engaged due to workload. It is entirely to early in this investigation to point fingers and throw stones. I had no idea we had so many NTSB investigators and aviation experts on this board. I do this for a living and haven’t come close to drawing any conclusions yet. I have my suspicions, and like any good aviator would do, I am going to learn from the findings of this accident to make sure something like this never occurs on my watch. There is no room for speculation and drawing your own conclusions when the investigation is in it’s early stages. Icing was likely a factor but it will likely only be a small piece of a much bigger puzzle. Not one thing causes an accident. It’s typically a series of events, malfunctions and possible missteps by the crew, dispatch, maintenance or ATC that causes an event like this to occur.
cal7576fo is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 4:29 pm
  #761  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 9,223
Originally Posted by zipadee
... I would point out that it's based in significant part on the words of former NTSB chairman Jim Hall. I have tremendous respect for him and his investigative work.
Yes. But the job of NTSB investigators is to always push back against the FAA. That was the whole point of keeping the regulators separate from the investigators, to have opposing forces that would argue to a reasonable compromise when they had differences of opinion.

NTSB people are biased because they are trained and very dedicated to being biased toward safety regardless of cost. And it is good to have the checks and balances on regulators who get too friendly with the people they regulate.

But newspapers and their readers are only getting the one side. And next you've got a feeding frenzy of lawyers being cheered on a large population who isn't necessarily getting the bigger picture: the picture that shows that no Dash 8 aircraft has ever had a fatal accident because of icing before now. (I believe that's correct.)

And let us not forget. We do not know the cause of this accident.
Bobster is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 6:37 pm
  #762  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: UA Silv; Hyatt Plat, Priority Club, SPG G, HHonors G, Marriott S; Hertz 5*; AA, WN, Pan Am!
Posts: 819
Originally Posted by PhillyPhlyer40
I was asking about YOUR statement that YOU almost always use AP in landings...good and bad weather...DO YOU leave it on in icing???


Also:
Severe http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/severe

1. harsh; unnecessarily extreme

Significant http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/significant

1. important; of consequence.


Splitting hairs???
light/moderate/severe icing are terms of art

"significant icing" is not
texd is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 7:46 pm
  #763  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 9,223
According to what pilots are saying on pprune and elsewhere, the CO pilots were way below Vref, they may have been at the stall speed even without adding ice.
Bobster is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 9:01 pm
  #764  
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: BNA
Programs: HH Gold. (Former) UA PP, DL PM, PC Plat
Posts: 8,184
Originally Posted by venk
Whatever happened to "power controls rate of descent/ascent, elevators control speed"?
That is one technique that is often used to teach aircraft control, it is not a "fact" or rule of aerodynamics. In fact, when I worked as a flight instructor I taught a different technique. I taught that when power is available and variable, use pitch to control rate of climb/descent and power to control airspeed. When power is fixed, use pitch to control airspeed. They are techniques. Either one will work.

Autopilots don't use techniques, they follow computer programs. An autopilot in altitude hold mode will use pitch to maintain altitude and autothrottles to control airspeed. When the autopilot captures the glideslope on an ILS approach it will pitch for the glideslope and use the autothrottles to maintain airspeed.

I am more curious about what happens when the autopilot disengages on its own as it appears to have done in this case.
I believe that it was mentioned in the NTSB briefing this afternoon that the autopilot was disengaged by the Captain.

Would this leave the aircraft in an out of trim position requiring the pilot to apply considerable inputs that might be surprising to a pilot?
The autopilot trims the airplane as it flies. If you're in a steady-state at the time of the disconnect the airplane should be perfectly trimmed. If you're not in a steady-state when you disconnect then you can be out of trim but it should be the "in trim" setting from a few seconds ago so it won't normally be significantly out of trim.

Originally Posted by Bobster
According to what pilots are saying on pprune and elsewhere, the CO pilots were way below Vref
That is not what the information provided by this afternoons NTSB press conference said. They were above Vref at the time of the upset though I don't recall the exact numbers.
LarryJ is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2009, 9:44 pm
  #765  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 9,223
Originally Posted by LarryJ
That is not what the information provided by this afternoons NTSB press conference said. They were above Vref at the time of the upset though I don't recall the exact numbers.
The NTSB said they were a few kts below Vref+20 which is supposed to be OK.

I found an incident report where the pilots of a Dash-8-100 inadvertently let their speed drop after departure from 170 kts to 104 kts, during which time the plane was icing, and at that point the stick shaker activated, the autopilot disengaged, and they fell 4200 feet during 3 stalls with a g-load max of 2.24, and then they recovered. Then they continued on to their destination!!

If the 100 stalled in ice at 104, then the 400 should have a significantly higher stall speed. That seems to suggest the CO pilots had very little safety margin.


Stall and Loss of Control During Climb: de Havilland DHC-8-100

Through about 8000 feet, the airspeed started a gradual decrease from 170 KIAS over a period of five minutes. During this time, the vertical speed continued at a constant 1190 fpm up. The gradual decrease in airspeed was detected when the first officer looked up from his paperwork, noted the decreased airspeed, and advised the captain. The captain then rotated the pitch control wheel on the flight guidance controller toward nose down (see Figure 1) to increase the airspeed. While attempting the adjustment, the captain saw the aircraft's stick shaker activate, causing the autopilot to disengage. This occurred at 14 800 feet above sea level, at 104 KIAS. The captain then began to manually fly the aircraft.

Within a second of autopilot disengagement, the aircraft began to roll right and pitch down (see Appendix A - Flight Data Recorder Plot and Appendix B - Flight Data Recorder Plot - Engines). Immediately after the aircraft began to roll, it was noticed that there was ice on the left engine inlet. The roll angle increased to 64º, the pitch angle went from 15º nose up to 5º nose up, and the aircraft vertical acceleration dropped to approximately 0.5 g. The aircraft pitch then increased to 30º nose up briefly before decreasing to 40º nose down. These conditions are indications that the aircraft wing had fully stalled. However, the captain interpreted the indications as severe turbulence.

The FDR data show that the aircraft underwent three distinct stalls during the loss-of-control event, with the third stall being the most severe. The data show that the control column position cycled rapidly back and forth as the stall developed, but was moved generally aft, remaining aft during all three stalls. There was significant aileron and rudder pedal movement during the event, but these controls were ineffective in regaining control and were in response to the aircraft's movement, rather than the cause of it. The data indicated that aircraft control was regained when the control column was moved forward.

...

Immediately after recovery, the crew observed that ice was building up rapidly on the aircraft fuselage. Airframe de-ice equipment was then selected ON. The pneumatic boots functioned when selected, and were effective in removing the ice. The crew requested a lower altitude to remain clear of icing conditions and continued to Deer Lake. After landing, the pilot reported a severe turbulence encounter to company personnel. A heavy turbulence check was subsequently carried out, and no damage was found.

Last edited by Bobster; Feb 16, 2009 at 11:01 pm
Bobster is offline  


Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.