[12-Feb-2009]: CO 3407 crashes while on descent into BUF
#751
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 5,748
I am only a lowly PP-SEL and have never flown planes with autopilots but several things in this post seem odd.
So far seems like a possibility.
If the wings have permanently lost lift from icing, the autopilot would have compensated by moving the elevators to hold the required attitude/speed and held it there rather than cycle, no? If lift decreases further, there would be continuing elevator adjustment to keep the tail down.
Whatever happened to "power controls rate of descent/ascent, elevators control speed"? If the autopilot is maintaining the attitude/speed with compensating corrections on the elevator, there would be no change in speed. Isn't this what autopilots do? Also if there is decreased overall lift, the ascent rate should decrease and the autopilot would have to maintain that by increasing power, no?
This does not appear realistic, the autopilot would have maintained the same attitude/speed not keep pulling the nose up. The same thing would apply if the icing was on the elevators reducing its effectiveness (and tending to pitch the nose up ... or down if the elevators in this aircraft typically keep attitude level with negative lift) and the autopilot would have compensated by changing the elevator angle of attack. No?
I am more curious about what happens when the autopilot disengages on its own as it appears to have done in this case. Would this leave the aircraft in an out of trim position requiring the pilot to apply considerable inputs that might be surprising to a pilot?
Could the initial significant pitch up reported sometime after the auto pilot disengaged be due to the disengagement of the autopilot causing an out of trim situation that caused the nose to pitch up as the pilots didn't realize the extent to which the autopilot was correcting to keep the nose down? Or alternatively could ice breaking off from the wing/tail surfaces suddenly make the compensating action on the elevators so far to keep the tail down (or nose up) cause the sudden pitch up?
If something caused that sudden pitch up which led to a stall condition, the rest of the scenario seems like what might happen to amateur pilots like me trying to get out of a stall situation so close to the ground applying over- and incorrect corrections resulting in a classic stall-spin situation as one wing stalls before the other.
Not trying to speculate what happened here either but trying to understand what the effect of an autopilot in use in adverse conditions could be in general.
However, there is a risk and I can see it happening in this following scenario.
Aircraft is on autopilot holding altitude and heading. As ice accumulates on the wing, the wing begins to slowly lose lift. As the lift decreases, the nose begin to drop which is a normal reaction of any airplane.
Aircraft is on autopilot holding altitude and heading. As ice accumulates on the wing, the wing begins to slowly lose lift. As the lift decreases, the nose begin to drop which is a normal reaction of any airplane.
Once this happens, the autopilot, sensing a nose down trend, reacts by bringing the nose up again to level attitiude. This cycle repeast over and over throught the approach and this is all done without the pilots even noticing because it's so subtle.
Since the autopilot has brought the nose up again, the airspeed has decreased a few knots (or more) each time and you (the pilot) hasn't added any power to increase airspeed.
All this time the autopilot has been diligently trying to counter the decreasing lift by pulling the nose higher and higher resulting in airspeed bleeding off to just a few knots above stall speed.
I am more curious about what happens when the autopilot disengages on its own as it appears to have done in this case. Would this leave the aircraft in an out of trim position requiring the pilot to apply considerable inputs that might be surprising to a pilot?
Could the initial significant pitch up reported sometime after the auto pilot disengaged be due to the disengagement of the autopilot causing an out of trim situation that caused the nose to pitch up as the pilots didn't realize the extent to which the autopilot was correcting to keep the nose down? Or alternatively could ice breaking off from the wing/tail surfaces suddenly make the compensating action on the elevators so far to keep the tail down (or nose up) cause the sudden pitch up?
If something caused that sudden pitch up which led to a stall condition, the rest of the scenario seems like what might happen to amateur pilots like me trying to get out of a stall situation so close to the ground applying over- and incorrect corrections resulting in a classic stall-spin situation as one wing stalls before the other.
Not trying to speculate what happened here either but trying to understand what the effect of an autopilot in use in adverse conditions could be in general.
#752
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: DCA
Programs: UA LT 1K, AA EXP, Bonvoy LT Titan, Avis PC, Hilton Gold
Posts: 9,658
#754
Join Date: Feb 2006
Programs: HH Silver, MR Plat Prem & LT Plat, Hyatt Plat,SPG Plat, Hertz PC, National EE, UA 1K
Posts: 3,405
While we are throwing out feelings...I have this burning feeling that ICING on the plane may just turn up to be the true cause.....
But again..just a "feeling".
#755
Join Date: Feb 2006
Programs: HH Silver, MR Plat Prem & LT Plat, Hyatt Plat,SPG Plat, Hertz PC, National EE, UA 1K
Posts: 3,405
#756
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Homosassa, FL & Ringwood, NJ -UA-G(Lifetime); SPG-Plat (Lifetime)
Posts: 6,120
Airline policy is to disconnect AP in SEVERE icing, not moderate, not mild. The NTSB hyas been quite clear that at this point, they cannot establish SEVERE icing. The only comment by the pilot was 'significant' iceing. As per the NTSB, that term has no meaning in establishing the icing condition.
#757
Join Date: Feb 2006
Programs: HH Silver, MR Plat Prem & LT Plat, Hyatt Plat,SPG Plat, Hertz PC, National EE, UA 1K
Posts: 3,405
Airline policy is to disconnect AP in SEVERE icing, not moderate, not mild. The NTSB hyas been quite clear that at this point, they cannot establish SEVERE icing. The only comment by the pilot was 'significant' iceing. As per the NTSB, that term has no meaning in establishing the icing condition.
I was asking about YOUR statement that YOU almost always use AP in landings...good and bad weather...DO YOU leave it on in icing???
Also:
Severe http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/severe
1. harsh; unnecessarily extreme
Significant http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/significant
1. important; of consequence.
Splitting hairs???
#758
Join Date: May 2005
Location: IAH
Programs: UA Premier Gold, AA, Hertz, Avis, Marriott, Hilton HH
Posts: 372
When I used to fly turborops, and light mutli-engine aircraft, I would disconnect the autopilot on approach so I could "feel" the airplanes reactions better. However, I never experienced severe icing because I would divert or cancel a flight if I knew the approach was in jeopardy.
#759
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Homosassa, FL & Ringwood, NJ -UA-G(Lifetime); SPG-Plat (Lifetime)
Posts: 6,120
I was asking about YOUR statement that YOU almost always use AP in landings...good and bad weather...DO YOU leave it on in icing???
Also:
Severe http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/severe
1. harsh; unnecessarily extreme
Significant http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/significant
1. important; of consequence.
Splitting hairs???
Also:
Severe http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/severe
1. harsh; unnecessarily extreme
Significant http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/significant
1. important; of consequence.
Splitting hairs???
PS. For your reading pleasure, you may consider following this topic on the pilots board, www.pprune.org.
#760
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: IAH
Posts: 14
Remember, there was no severe icing reported. Even if that was the case, hand flying is only “recommended” by their flight operations manual not required! With that said, the autopilot may have been engaged due to workload. It is entirely to early in this investigation to point fingers and throw stones. I had no idea we had so many NTSB investigators and aviation experts on this board. I do this for a living and haven’t come close to drawing any conclusions yet. I have my suspicions, and like any good aviator would do, I am going to learn from the findings of this accident to make sure something like this never occurs on my watch. There is no room for speculation and drawing your own conclusions when the investigation is in it’s early stages. Icing was likely a factor but it will likely only be a small piece of a much bigger puzzle. Not one thing causes an accident. It’s typically a series of events, malfunctions and possible missteps by the crew, dispatch, maintenance or ATC that causes an event like this to occur.
#761
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 9,223
NTSB people are biased because they are trained and very dedicated to being biased toward safety regardless of cost. And it is good to have the checks and balances on regulators who get too friendly with the people they regulate.
But newspapers and their readers are only getting the one side. And next you've got a feeding frenzy of lawyers being cheered on a large population who isn't necessarily getting the bigger picture: the picture that shows that no Dash 8 aircraft has ever had a fatal accident because of icing before now. (I believe that's correct.)
And let us not forget. We do not know the cause of this accident.
#762
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: UA Silv; Hyatt Plat, Priority Club, SPG G, HHonors G, Marriott S; Hertz 5*; AA, WN, Pan Am!
Posts: 819
I was asking about YOUR statement that YOU almost always use AP in landings...good and bad weather...DO YOU leave it on in icing???
Also:
Severe http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/severe
1. harsh; unnecessarily extreme
Significant http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/significant
1. important; of consequence.
Splitting hairs???
Also:
Severe http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/severe
1. harsh; unnecessarily extreme
Significant http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/significant
1. important; of consequence.
Splitting hairs???
"significant icing" is not
#763
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 9,223
According to what pilots are saying on pprune and elsewhere, the CO pilots were way below Vref, they may have been at the stall speed even without adding ice.
#764
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: BNA
Programs: HH Gold. (Former) UA PP, DL PM, PC Plat
Posts: 8,184
Autopilots don't use techniques, they follow computer programs. An autopilot in altitude hold mode will use pitch to maintain altitude and autothrottles to control airspeed. When the autopilot captures the glideslope on an ILS approach it will pitch for the glideslope and use the autothrottles to maintain airspeed.
I am more curious about what happens when the autopilot disengages on its own as it appears to have done in this case.
Would this leave the aircraft in an out of trim position requiring the pilot to apply considerable inputs that might be surprising to a pilot?
That is not what the information provided by this afternoons NTSB press conference said. They were above Vref at the time of the upset though I don't recall the exact numbers.
#765
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 9,223
I found an incident report where the pilots of a Dash-8-100 inadvertently let their speed drop after departure from 170 kts to 104 kts, during which time the plane was icing, and at that point the stick shaker activated, the autopilot disengaged, and they fell 4200 feet during 3 stalls with a g-load max of 2.24, and then they recovered. Then they continued on to their destination!!
If the 100 stalled in ice at 104, then the 400 should have a significantly higher stall speed. That seems to suggest the CO pilots had very little safety margin.
Stall and Loss of Control During Climb: de Havilland DHC-8-100
Through about 8000 feet, the airspeed started a gradual decrease from 170 KIAS over a period of five minutes. During this time, the vertical speed continued at a constant 1190 fpm up. The gradual decrease in airspeed was detected when the first officer looked up from his paperwork, noted the decreased airspeed, and advised the captain. The captain then rotated the pitch control wheel on the flight guidance controller toward nose down (see Figure 1) to increase the airspeed. While attempting the adjustment, the captain saw the aircraft's stick shaker activate, causing the autopilot to disengage. This occurred at 14 800 feet above sea level, at 104 KIAS. The captain then began to manually fly the aircraft.
Within a second of autopilot disengagement, the aircraft began to roll right and pitch down (see Appendix A - Flight Data Recorder Plot and Appendix B - Flight Data Recorder Plot - Engines). Immediately after the aircraft began to roll, it was noticed that there was ice on the left engine inlet. The roll angle increased to 64º, the pitch angle went from 15º nose up to 5º nose up, and the aircraft vertical acceleration dropped to approximately 0.5 g. The aircraft pitch then increased to 30º nose up briefly before decreasing to 40º nose down. These conditions are indications that the aircraft wing had fully stalled. However, the captain interpreted the indications as severe turbulence.
The FDR data show that the aircraft underwent three distinct stalls during the loss-of-control event, with the third stall being the most severe. The data show that the control column position cycled rapidly back and forth as the stall developed, but was moved generally aft, remaining aft during all three stalls. There was significant aileron and rudder pedal movement during the event, but these controls were ineffective in regaining control and were in response to the aircraft's movement, rather than the cause of it. The data indicated that aircraft control was regained when the control column was moved forward.
...
Immediately after recovery, the crew observed that ice was building up rapidly on the aircraft fuselage. Airframe de-ice equipment was then selected ON. The pneumatic boots functioned when selected, and were effective in removing the ice. The crew requested a lower altitude to remain clear of icing conditions and continued to Deer Lake. After landing, the pilot reported a severe turbulence encounter to company personnel. A heavy turbulence check was subsequently carried out, and no damage was found.
Within a second of autopilot disengagement, the aircraft began to roll right and pitch down (see Appendix A - Flight Data Recorder Plot and Appendix B - Flight Data Recorder Plot - Engines). Immediately after the aircraft began to roll, it was noticed that there was ice on the left engine inlet. The roll angle increased to 64º, the pitch angle went from 15º nose up to 5º nose up, and the aircraft vertical acceleration dropped to approximately 0.5 g. The aircraft pitch then increased to 30º nose up briefly before decreasing to 40º nose down. These conditions are indications that the aircraft wing had fully stalled. However, the captain interpreted the indications as severe turbulence.
The FDR data show that the aircraft underwent three distinct stalls during the loss-of-control event, with the third stall being the most severe. The data show that the control column position cycled rapidly back and forth as the stall developed, but was moved generally aft, remaining aft during all three stalls. There was significant aileron and rudder pedal movement during the event, but these controls were ineffective in regaining control and were in response to the aircraft's movement, rather than the cause of it. The data indicated that aircraft control was regained when the control column was moved forward.
...
Immediately after recovery, the crew observed that ice was building up rapidly on the aircraft fuselage. Airframe de-ice equipment was then selected ON. The pneumatic boots functioned when selected, and were effective in removing the ice. The crew requested a lower altitude to remain clear of icing conditions and continued to Deer Lake. After landing, the pilot reported a severe turbulence encounter to company personnel. A heavy turbulence check was subsequently carried out, and no damage was found.
Last edited by Bobster; Feb 16, 2009 at 11:01 pm