Loads falling off a cliff?
 

Has anyone else noticed? Last Wednesday I flew EWR-MCO at 3 PM. There was NOBODY but me in the C-3 security line. It was a 753 and by looks of the people in the lounge, was very empty. I returned from TPA on a 762 (subed for 752) Friday morning with 17/25 in FC and only 30 in coach. When I looked at the C-3 Security checkpoint on the way out, again, nobody in either line.

I am now at the PC at EWR waiting to pickup my wife on CO 19 from LHR. It is a 757 with 45 people in coach. When I went to the domestic elite check in to get a gate pass, there were 2 other people there, at 5 PM on a Sunday. There was maybe a total of 25 people in the C-3 security Lines. The PC is maybe 75% as crowded as I would expect it to be.

I guess this is great for Upgrades (I am batting 1000 this year) and low prices, but it has to be crushing the airlines. CO may get an opportunity to pick over the bones of UA sooner than later (that is, if they can get financing).

CO posts a consolidated month-to-date load factor on its website's investor relationship page. To 1/30/09, it's 73.4%. Of course, it'll release Jan traffic figures next week.

In comparison consolidated LF for last month, 12/08, was 79.9%; 1.2 percentage points higher than 12/07.

A year ago, 1/08 consolidated LF was 76.8%. So, despite all the capacity cuts, LF is still at least 3 percentage points lower than a year ago. And I'd think a lot of that loss is towards the end of Jan.

So, I agree with you. Loads is falling fast.

For as long as I've worked for CO the loads during January are always low. Most people don't travel so soon after the xmas holiday. Enjoy those empty seats because things will start to pick up once again.

I hope you are right. We all have a vested interest in a healthy CO. I know January is slow, but to/from Florida?

Even to Florida. I use to have company meetings in Florida every January because it was cheap for flights and hotels because of the reduced loads.

From listening to our senior management there has been a noticeable softening in the loads. This has been a little more than the average slow season. From an employee perspective I have gotten F/C on three of my last five trips and even in January thats unheard of to the routes that I visit like PHL/DCA and ATL. I hope that things pick up soon, of course Spring break is coming.

Where did I ever get the idea that a lot of people went to Florida in the winter due to the weather:D

In past years pricing for tickets has always gone up in the high season (Jan-April). I am now seeing fares more like low season. If onebeleives that any airline prices its tickets as high as possible, then voulme must be down. Or am I missing something?

My EWR-FLL flight went out full and I didn't get upgraded either. Looks the same for tomorrow back to EWR.:(

[QUOTE=Vulcan;11177932]3 years ago it cost $118 to MCO (me as a lowly silver got upgraded on the 752) Two years ago it was $180 to FLL, leaving EWR the Sunday before the superbowl and returning the wednesday before. Flights do fill up quick with those prices when the economy is good.

Month-to-date consolidated LF is 73.4%. Let's compare to historical numbers:

Consolidated Jan LF:
2008: 76.8%
2007: 76.3%
2006: 75.9%
2005: 75.4%

Mainline/Regional Jan LF:
2004: 71.4%/61.3%
2003: 67.9%/56.4%
2002: 70.1%/54.3%
2001: 67.1%/51.9%
2000: 67.9%/54.8%
1999: 68.0%/54.8%
1998: 64.8%/47.5%
1997: 64.5%/43.0%

So, I guess LF is just "returning to historical norm". :D

My thread, earlier in the week - 'You're in the No-Fly Zone'
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showt...errerid=159025

comparing '08 to some of the past years is almost an apples vs. oranges since they cut a lot of capacity back in September.
I'm sure if they cut capacity a certain way they could get those numbers to be 100%

This thread in part is about load factor on a plane. Not just overall traffic. If LF continues to fall even after the pretty significant cut in capacity, that means further trouble and possible further cuts in flights.

My 753 trip just after DO IV IAH to FLL is looking full, only 4 seats open. wait, make that 9 some are premium seats.

For those of us who began flying seriously since that time, this kind of stats really puts in perspective how empty aircraft used to be... 43% regional load factor? That's about 21-22 seats filled on an ERJ-145 (not that CO was flying those in 1997 much, given that the first delivery was in 12/96).