FlyerTalk Forums - Snow at IAH

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I've been in Houston for the last three days, and I haven't seen any snow at all. I also drove out to IAH at noon today, no sign of snow, it's just a cold crisp day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CO_Nonrev_elite (Post 12914060)

I've been in Houston for the last three days, and I haven't seen any snow at all. I also drove out to IAH at noon today, no sign of snow, it's just a cold crisp day.

Snow doesn't happen like that in Houston, or most of Texas for that matter. It is forecast to occur Friday, which means that it likely will not happen and if it does, it will be light.

Or it will be apocalyptic. Time will tell. :-:

It is forecast to occur Friday, which means that it likely will not happen and if it does, it will be light.
-----------

Earlier in the thread there are people saying that they have 3 inches of snow in Houston. I can't see any sign of any

Quote:

Originally Posted by CO_Nonrev_elite (Post 12914140)

Earlier in the thread there are people saying that they have 3 inches of snow in Houston. I can't see any sign of any

Right, check the date on those posts. They're talking about the storm from 2008. ;)

Check the dates on the postings... (beat me to it!)

Will Customer Al Gore, please pick up the white courtesy phone.

Can't beat that global warming. Tell Exxon in Baytown to turn the refinery onto HIGH.

- HF

HobokenFlyer: That's an excellent di-icing solution, make a low flyby of a flare tower... :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by marklyon (Post 12914235)

HobokenFlyer: That's an excellent di-icing solution, make a low flyby of a flare tower... :)

Airframe corrosion is a nasty side effect of that deicing method. :o

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mackieman (Post 12914121)

From what I've read on Weather Underground (from folks more knowledgeable than I about weather matters), both the NAM and GFS models indicate heavier precip on the North side of Houston (primarily on the NW Side). Apparently, that would be indicative of significant accumulations (an inch or so). If it happens, that's the sort of snow event that hits Houston once every 30 or so years (I haven't seen an inch or so accumulate near the airport since the 80s). The Christmas Eve snow of 2005 and last year's Snow barely dusted the North Side. It was areas around Sugarland and Baytown that got dumped on for those.

From what I've read, there's supposed to be an upper-level low approaching S.E. Texas on Friday morning, and the precip associated with it will be riding through a solid column of cold arctic air that the frontal boundary currently over North Texas is dragging into the state. Thankfully, the solid column of cold air will likely mean that there won't be much in the way of ice/sleet.

Not unheard of for a low near the moisture-rich Gulf and a blanket of arctic air to create impressive snowfall totals along the Texas coast. A similar set-up in 2005 resulted in areas around Victoria (closer to Corpus Christi than Houston) receiving about 14" of snow. IIRC, it topped their all-time one-day snowfall totals by about a foot. When I was in Corpus Christi for the August Baseball DO, there were shops selling postcards showing the Palm-lined shore of the bay buried under about 3" of snow. :eek:

Still 48 hours out, so definite forecasts are too hard to pin down at the moment, but there's definitely some support in the models for a decent amount of snow on the North side of town.

Latest NWS Discussion:

Code:

FRIDAY:

A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS ON TAP AND A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT

SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH

TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND OVER

RIDE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY

FRIDAY AS LIGHT RAIN. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL COOL QUICKLY AND 

THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING

AND FALL THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT THAT THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT

SNOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE

AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE CAN/ECMWF AND UKMET ALL FAVOR

KEEPING THE MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH LIGHT QPF TOTALS.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE FURTHER INLAND WITH SOME HEAVIER QPF TOTALS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE BETWEN 0.7-0.8 INCHES

WHICH IS RATHER ROBUST IN THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS. ALSO THE MODELS

SHOW A DECENT JET COUPLET AT 300 MB. SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIE IN A 

RRQ OF THE POLAR JET AND IN A LFQ OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET. THIS

SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL BE

IMPRESSIVE AND COULD ACTUALLY BE THE KEY TO DETERMINING HOW MUCH

PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN GOOD

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BUT NEITHER MODEL HAS AGREED WITH THE

OTHER. IF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS AS STRONG AS THE GFS/NAM

INDICATES...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. IF THE WEAKER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE

PER THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...ONLY FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DUE

TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER

WATCHES OR ADVISORIES. THIS IS A DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER

SITUATION AND THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. KEEP UP WITH

THE FORECASTS!



MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. A

FREEZE WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SAT AM OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.

ONLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SPARED FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOW

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE

REGION. A BRIEF WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY BUT TEMPS WILL

REMAIN BELOW CLIMO. ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE

FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL

TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW ALOFT GOES ZONAL. 43

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anglo Large Clawed Otter (Post 12914258)

Aye, I agree with you (and the NWS folks) but allow me to interject these ideas: NWS forecast for SAT/AUS/DRT include snow over the Hill Country and some decent chance here in AUS on Friday morning. It is scheduled to taper off as the day progresses, which means I don't think IAH will see as much.

But also, I am a nerd who enjoys weather and by no means an expert at reading GFS or NAM. It'll be interesting either way.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mackieman (Post 12914287)

My reading of the progression was that the upper-level low that would interact with the arctic air would be tracking West to East. Since the earlier NWS discussion talked about snow beginning in NW Houston on late Friday morning, that would make sense. The low would track over us by Friday afternoon/evening, as most of the snow tapered off in the Hill Country.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scott6067 (Post 12914022)

They probably wont re-route people until Friday. Perhaps they could route you to LA on UA and then catch CO LAX-HNL-GUA?

I'm going to GUA not GUM; though I'd love a free routing to the islands... :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anglo Large Clawed Otter (Post 12914309)

I'm waiting for the 4PM discussion release from our NWS office. They issued a statement about an hour ago saying 2 inches are forecast along and north of US 57, which includes the SAT and AUS metro areas. I am strongly considering urging my wife to cancel our SAT plans this weekend if only to avoid what I am sure is a large group of morons on IH-35 who have no idea how to drive in winter weather.

4PM Discussion is out:

Code:

177 

fxus64 kewx 022201 

afdewx 





Area forecast discussion 

National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 

401 PM CST Wednesday Dec 2 2009 





Discussion... 

cold air advection will continue tonight into Friday ahead of the 

approaching upper level trough and result in temperatures well 

below normal across much of the area. A quick look at the surface 

observations across the central and northern plains shows 3pm 

temperatures in the 20s and 30s...with a few spots in the upper 

teens. Dewpoint temperatures in the teens are common in this 

airmass...which will build into our area going into Friday. 





The large trough taking shape across the northern plains will lift 

NE over the next 48-72h. At the same time...shortwave energy will 

move around the base...across the southern rockies Thursday and 

across our area Friday. A coastal trough is forecast to deepen 

Thursday night in response to the approaching upper level short 

wave trough. The forecast position and magnitude of the coastal 

trough will be a big player in the snow forecast. There are some 

differences among the 12z model suite with regard to the coastal 

trough...with the 12z GFS more bullish on the quantitative precipitation forecast...especially 

across our southeast counties. The 12z GFS forecast soundings for our southeast 

counties show classic snow traces Friday...so precipitation will likely 

be all snow. Our forecast snowfall amounts are generally a blend 

of the 12z nam12 and gfs40 snowfall amount output...minus a 

quarter to half inch for anticipated melting. Will pass on a 

Winter Storm Watch for now given our forecast amounts and 

uncertainty with forecast coastal trough evolution...but a watch 

may be necessary with later model runs. For now...have updated the 

Special Weather Statement and created web graphics to highlight 

the snow forecast. In addition...a hard freeze is forecast Friday 

night into Saturday morning and a freeze warning will likely be 

required. 





The high amplitude synoptic pattern currently in place is forecast 

to be replaced with a near zonal pattern across the southern U.S. 

By 12z Monday. Another front is forecast to push through 12z 

Monday...with a quick turn-around and another front Tuesday night. 





Temperatures will generally be below to well below normal for the 

next seven days. We're forecasting new record low maximum temperatures Friday 

for the entire area...and will likely see a few new record low 

temperatures on Saturday morning. 





&&

Looks like the models shifted slightly since this morning so the next two days will be telling. But in any event, it's going to be cold and there is going to be some snow, so I hope IAH has the deicing truck gassed up and ready to roll.

Here's a link to a GFS/NAM model run showing the snow being pulled in by the low, tracking from Midland/Odessa, through the Hill Country, and then along the North side of Houston.