In the last 3+ weeks every flight I've been on has had empty seats in first. Here is the rundown including flight # and equipment.
June 15: #1012 IAH-PDX 3 of 16 empty (737-800).
June 20: #624 SEA-CLE at least 1 of 16 empty (737-800).
June 28: #735 CLE-LAX 1 empty out of 24 (757-300).
July 7: #514 LAX-CLE 10 of 16 empty (737-800) and no, that's not a typo.

Yesterday I thought there must be something wrong with the PDA sight because there were so few people in first and no one on the upgrade list. Has anyone else noticed this or is it just a quirk because of the flights I've been on lately, i.e seasonal service to PDX, redeye to CLE, 757 to LAX, and Monday after holiday weekend? I used to use the PDA site to see if I got the upgrade. Now, I use it even more to see if the seat next to me will be empty. Earlier this spring there were 20+ people on the upgrade list for some of my flights.

I've noticed a gradual reduction in overall loads over the last couple of months, including more open F seats.

I was on a NW flight last night with 10 open F seats. Granted it was just MEM-BTR on a DC-9, but it's been a long time since I've been in a F section that was that empty.

There were 53 people on the upgrade standby list on the 4:45 (or so) DEN-IAH on Thursday, June 26, IIRC.

Two empty FC seats (733) DEN-EWR redeye last Wednesday the 2nd.

Yup, route and time make all the difference.

Yes. I was on CO1409 CUN-CLE 7/6 and there were 3 empty FC seats. First time in as long as I can remember that I've seen FC seats empty. Got up to use the bathroom just to take a better look. You know how short people are hard to see, not to mention having no reason to live.

That's always a very difficult flight to get upgraded, on any weekday.

I wouldn't be surprised if, given the state of the economy, perhaps elite status will be worth something again wrt upgrades.

All those banks and investment companies that were thrilled to toss out $1000 for OW Z fares on transcons may be thinking twice now.

The most recent flight I was on with empties was a CLE-FLL a few weeks back, where I was the only passenger in row 1 and there was one other empty seat (four empties total).

06/21/2008 Continental 1715U TUS-IAH 2 empty seats in F - thought it was strange at the time.

I have been tracking IAH-DCA flights in the evening - which used to be always booked. These flights are now going out many times with empty F seats.

For today, 7/8/08, IAH-DCA (this is a Tueday):
Flight 1558: 9/12 occupied, 3 empty
Flight 658: 4/12 booked, and only 4 on the standby list - likely will have 4 empty.
When 658 is a 738 - then I see even more empties.

Maybe gov't contracts changed and are no longer Y.

No, some are still Y. There are two types - capacity controlled and unrestricted. Capacity controlled book into various midrange coach buckets depending on carrier; unrestricted book into full Y and have "last seat" availability. Both types can be changed without penalty, but for the capacity controlled, space must be available in the capacity controlled fare bucket. If there is no such space, you must upfare to a Y (but no change penalty). Some carriers (like UA?) restrict the ability to Y-up using the unrestricted fares, but they still count for 150% EQM bonuses and high priority for upgrades.

CO does not have the contract for DCA-IAH - AA currently does (have to connect in DFW). CO has very few, if any, government contract city pairs these days. People who fly CO on government business usually are flying on regular (i.e., non-government contracted) fares.

In any event, I have had several surprising five-day EUA's this year on DCA-IAH-DCA. Friday afternoon flights still have 70% elite passengers, though.

I fly CO regularly on tickets booked through COs federal government business ticket engine. I haven't seen Y fares lately (especially on the DCA routes), its been a bunch of H's with the exception of LAX. Mind you this travel is originating from MFE so that could have some affect. I do notice that Y fares pop up for govt. intra-Texas flights but I am rarely on those for official business except occasionally to IAH. Our travel policy, or at least mine, allows for travel on any airline of our choice with the rule that we must book a government fare.

EWR-ANY and ANY-EWR is still filled to the gills.

For those of you who are not familiar with ANY, it is Anywhere

Some markets are hard - no doubt about it - but u/g's still do happen.

Today two of the three transcons to PDX went out with empty seats and the last one went out with 4 u/g's. Granted today is a Tuesday, and we're talking PDX and not LAX/SFO, but u/g's can happen.

I flew MCO - EWR recently with only 5 out of 16 seats in F occupied (752 w/ BF config). However.... that is a leisure market, and it was July 4th. Still it surprised me that there were not more elites around to fill seats. Perhaps they are smarter than me and don't travel on a holiday.

There are Flyertalk techies like us here that are elite, but the vast majority of elites are business travellers, who are home on the holidays. Plus frequent leisure travellers also tend to be at their destination on the holiday.