pbarnette

I think $1,000 is about right, provided that it is not the West Coast. I will not pay a premium if it includes a 6-hour flight in regular domestic economy as part of the deal. I would just fly BA or VS to the West Coast. Can't comment on the $1,250, as I haven't personally tried BD's product.

TWA Fan 1

Excellent!

Silly me! How could I have possibly have missed that bit?

As I have never actually flown in seat 29D in a 738 and since I heard from our friend rkkwan that they are removing this row of seats, this would be my one chance to partake of this time-honored CO tradition...

sbm12

I thought that they were moving the lav and adding 29ABC in its place, not removing row 29. They're adding seats to the 738 not removing them, I thought.

Also, for everyone debating the fares for PE, remember that the numbers are all one way, not round trip. At least they were when I posted them

TWA Fan 1

You are, of course, right about the lav being moved, not the row, but the net effect is still no stink shield required...

bernardd

You were talking averages - I was talking about a range of prices. As an example you're talking about an average coach cost of $520 one way, ie $1040 round trip, but how many of us expect off-season fares IAH-LGW to be closer to $600 round trip with a decent advance purchase?

Based on this you're looking to price PE on this route in the $2,000 range. If CO really believes a PE seat is worth anything close to 50% of the BF fare on this route for the same restrictions, I suspect they'll end up with a lot of empty seats. IMO the cost has to be closer to Y than J.

IAH Oil Man

Have you ever tried to upgrade on CO with miles... without being waitlisted? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH

sbm12

Sure, averages. Still, someone has to pay the "full" price if you are going to get to pay the discount price. And there are seasonal variations as well. Still, based on the CASM and the reduced number of seats there has to be a certain amount of extra revenue that the PE section drives, and the number is not insignificant. For everyone on here to say that they'd pay $1000 for the PE and think that they are getting a R/T fare doesn't help the discussion of whether this is actually viable or not.

Lemurs

Also to keep in mind: This strategy for BF and Y+ by definition means for CO to be profitable, there will still be further reduced possibility of getting seats with miles, and may force CO to follow DL's lead and reduce your ability to get seats even at the SaverPass level. CO's RM is very effective, and having to derive more profit from fewer seats means RM will pull the strings even tighter. That means further diluting OP, which means they'll have to be creative in returning non-flight benefits to customers.

bernardd

Sure. As I pointed out the average price has to come out 40-50% higher to break even.

Lets put some number on it though. At present both BA & CO will seel you a round trip IAH-LGW-IAH in Feb/Mar for $448 + $144 tax = $592.

BA will sell you a WT+ (ie PE) fare at $798 + $227 tax = $1025, ie about a 60% hike over coach. If they tried to price that at $2,000 round trip I'd almost certainly take coach, or I'd think about a CO R fare or a BA I fare and try to work round the long purchase requirement. PE isn't worth much more of a premium than they're getting, though it's actually a good deal for them since $798/$448 is a 78% premium which is quite a bit higher than the break even requirement.

bernardd

I can't speak for CO but my experience with BA compared to AA is I was always waitlisted for upgrades on AA, and scored way less then 100%. On BA I've got every one I asked for at the time of asking. Maybe I've just been lucky and there's a nasty surprise around the corner....

Another interesting thing is a one way upgrade DFW-LON on AA is 25,000 + co-pay, while the round trip earned me ~21,000 miles.

On BA the one-way upgrade is 12,500 miles with no co-pay and I earn over 14,000.

If CO go for a PE cabin they may well structure this differently.

perezoso

A 40% premium is, I suspect, too high. At least it would be for me. In order for Y+ to be worth 40% more $, it would have to be pretty damn nice.

But if it was that really really nice at 40% over coach, then I imagine it would cannibalize some of the thriftier-minded BusinessFirst passengers.

Although, I suppose, they could use a few tricks to induce you upgraders (I don't buy upgrades) to go for it, like manipulating the miles / $ upgrade path from Y+ to J, or even offering the odd space-available free plat upgrades from Y+ to J (buy a Y+ ticket and then pray BF doesn't sell out).

Anyway, I think that in order to be successful and not too posh to hurt BF sales, Y+ has got to be a bit more modest - the premium for Y+ needs to be something on the order of 15% - 25%.

On the plus side, a couple of TATL or transpac Y to Y+ upgrade certificates in the annual platinum requalification pack would make me very happy.

rkkwan

If CO cannot get enough people to pay a 40% premium for PE over coach, then they will not introduce PE, period.

Like others have calculated, 8-abreast 38" takes up 40% more room than 9-abreast 31".

Clearly, the majority of passengers will not pay that premium, even though 100% of them complain about the lack of room in coach.

But that doesn't mean they can't do 2-3 rows of PE. Like QF on its A380, only about 3 rows of PE in that 400+ seat double decker.

I think a 40% premium is very reasonable. Plenty of people are willing to pay $1,300 on EVA's Evergreen Deluxe/Elite Class to Asia, compared to $900 in coach, for example. In fact, ED/EC often sells out before coach.

rolov

i would pay the premium for anything scheduled for 6:30 hrs and over

TWA Fan 1

The metrics are a little different (less competition) but NZ charges a 100% premium for its PE.

On its 777, PE consists of only two rows and always sells out before Y, but this can be attributed to the scarcity of supply as much as the price point.

On its 744's, though, there are 39 seats of PE and they sell out consistently before Y as well.

The point is, there is demonstrably a demand for PE, especially so if your Y has 31" seat pitch.

Salmoneous

Minor quibble...

Keep in mind that it actually does cost something to fly a person and their luggage. Assume you replace 11x9 = 99 seats with 9x8 = 72 seats. Looking just at revenue, you need to charge 37.5% more from those 72 folks to break even. But if you look at profit, the breakeven point is somewhat less.