CUN Bump Chances
Jan 27, 2007 | 11:10 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Eville, MD, USA
Posts: 125
CUN Bump Chances
I did a search but didn't get any results. My wife and I are booked to CUN for a second honeymoon on Isla Mujeres and will return in early March, which I understand is high season. What are the chances for a bump from CUN to IAH? Any info would be appreciated.
Jan 27, 2007 | 11:28 pm
#2
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Bay Area, CA
Programs: UA Plat 2MM; AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 35,092
Here's how to find out for sure:
1. Make sure the flight is zeroed out in all classes.
2. Locate the aircraft type, and identify the number of seats (n)
3. Get someone at CO to spill by how many the flight is overbooked (o)
4. To validate, contact each passenger and count the number you can get to promise to make the flight (p)
5. If p - n > 0, then you got yourself an oversale.
Seriously, though, there's no way to predict. They overbook the flight by the amount of pax they think will no show or cancel. If they get this wrong, they either leave money on the table (they didn't sell enough seats), or they end up bumping people (they sold too many). In reality, CO knows the history of the flight, the season, etc., so they hold all the cards and are really good at this.
In my experience, many oversales are a function of something wacky happening (e.g., flight cancelling and a mad rush of rebookings), and many "potential bumps that look good" often fail because of something unforeseen (e.g., traffic on the freeway, misconnects from a delayed inbound flight, a long line a customs causing misconnects, etc.).
My gf had one of these "potential bumps that look good" until the flight went mechanical and delayed 3 hours. They started rebooking people onto other routes, essentially resolving the oversold situation.
Just get there, volunteer, and hope for the best.
1. Make sure the flight is zeroed out in all classes.
2. Locate the aircraft type, and identify the number of seats (n)
3. Get someone at CO to spill by how many the flight is overbooked (o)
4. To validate, contact each passenger and count the number you can get to promise to make the flight (p)
5. If p - n > 0, then you got yourself an oversale.
Seriously, though, there's no way to predict. They overbook the flight by the amount of pax they think will no show or cancel. If they get this wrong, they either leave money on the table (they didn't sell enough seats), or they end up bumping people (they sold too many). In reality, CO knows the history of the flight, the season, etc., so they hold all the cards and are really good at this.
In my experience, many oversales are a function of something wacky happening (e.g., flight cancelling and a mad rush of rebookings), and many "potential bumps that look good" often fail because of something unforeseen (e.g., traffic on the freeway, misconnects from a delayed inbound flight, a long line a customs causing misconnects, etc.).
My gf had one of these "potential bumps that look good" until the flight went mechanical and delayed 3 hours. They started rebooking people onto other routes, essentially resolving the oversold situation.
Just get there, volunteer, and hope for the best.
Jan 28, 2007 | 9:56 pm
#3
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Houston
Programs: AA EXP; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott Lifetime Platinum, Hilton Diamond, UA 1.56MM (fmr UA1K)
Posts: 5,774
In my experience, many oversales are a function of something wacky happening (e.g., flight cancelling and a mad rush of rebookings), and many "potential bumps that look good" often fail because of something unforeseen (e.g., traffic on the freeway, misconnects from a delayed inbound flight, a long line a customs causing misconnects, etc.).
I have found that the more I want the bump that the less likely it is to happen. I was a volunteer this afternoon for a flight back to IAH that had been zeroed out for weeks. I volunteered, she had me fill out the card, she took my bp, and she protected me for the next flight....it was looking good at this point--normally when I'm asked I just get the 'no I think we'll be fine'. But alas I heard my name called--too early for it to be good news--and sure enough I was thanked for volunteering, given a drink coupon and invited to board the plane
As Channa said, just volunteer, and be ready...but don't dream too much of what you'll do with the voucher until that door shuts and you're still in the gate area