Yes, you can. But again, CO may decide a few days before the flight that there're actually not going to sell the J inventory and release them over to the award side. Regardless, the cheapest fare when you do decide to refund out of H into a lower class stands a good chance of being higher than what you would have paid originally.CO has a bad habit of kicking over inventory at the last minute and if you decide to wait out till the last minute because CO shows an inventory of J9 D0 Z0 R0 than you're stuck.

True, it takes work if you want to play the game.


You need to plan ahead. It's the good that the carrier tries to generate revenue from the front cabin. This year, I have found it difficult to upgrade with H fares; last year was easier. I sense that CO's financials will be strong this year.

I'm not certain how effective this strategy would be. I think the strategy would work only under a very narrow set of circumstances.

Assume the fares in J.Edward's earlier example, $500 X fare, $1300 H (refundable). You purchase an H fare three weeks out and monitor J capacity. Now, let's say J begins to fill up during the week after your purchase, so you decide not to gamble and refund the H fare and X is still available. Everything works out efficiently from a cost standpoint - if you get upgraded, you save $100 (but no bonus EQMs) and sit in J, and if you don't get upgraded, you're paying a rock-bottom price for your Y seat.

But in reality, the only way one would find an X fare still available after having purchased and sat on a H fare for awhile would be if the H fare was purchased several months in advance and one chose to wait it out for upgrade availability, or if the flight was scheduled during a very off-peak travel period, when international X fares are widely available (such as to Europe in January), AND it was a route on which CO typically releases J upgrade inventory in advance. 95% of the time, higher coach fares will be all that remain should you choose to wait it out. So, if all that were available was a V fare for $800, you would have just paid an additional $300 to sit in the same Y seat. If you have an itinerary that allows you to book far in advance and in the off season, it might be possible.

Also, it has been my observation that the filling of J cabins occurs disproportionately closer to the date of travel, i.e., J could be empty two weeks before your departure date and you could decide to keep the H fare, only to find that J filled up during the week prior to departure and you're SOL in Y. I think it is fair to say that the manner in which CO releases upgrade available J seats is opaque at best and varies widely by route and season. This is not an easy game to play.

Also consider the following common scenario with respect to EQMs. You need to go to Europe in Y on two weeks notice during moderate travel season and don't need a refundable ticket. The cheapest fare available is a B fare. No upgrades are available yet, but BF inventory looks promising. An H fare is only $450 more round trip, as is often the case these days. Why not just buy the H fare anyway, waitlist the upgrades, and if one or both don't clear, at least you got 150% EQMs out of the deal? To me, the bonus EQMs somewhat offset the out-of-pocket cash outlay at the time of ticket purchase. If your upgrade doesn't clear as an H, it would not have cleared as a B, so even if you find yourself seated in Y in this scenario, you know that your bought yourself a better shot of an upgrade AND some extra EQMs. I think this is a better gamble, because you can't lose the EQMs, only the upgrade.

Last year, I applied this tactic seven times. I canceled the flight three times and got a lower-priced ticket. Actually, if I had tried to upgrade that ticket, the total cost may well have been higher than an H fare. I got four H upgrades. One H fare cleared immediately. Three cleared within three weeks to two months. Of the canceled tickets, two upgrades were available on the return trip, but I favored the outbound. Only one trip was in the summer.

It does look like the front cabin is selling well this year. At least, I haven't had luck upgrading on H fares on domestic trips. I have bought two H fares this year, but neither was able to upgrade. I bought the tickets about a month before the flight; last year, I bought tickets four or five months before departure. Though I have noticed a greater availability of Z fares this year compared to last--a Z isn't that much more than an H!

These days, I can't imagine buying a higher fare class for a domestic trip in the hopes of increasing chances for an EUA or success using a mileage upgrade (I tend not to use domestic mileage upgrades anyway - prefer to save the miles for more expensive rewards). Why not just buy a Yup or Z if available - they're usually not much more expensive than Hs?

I don't use miles for an upgrade on domestic trips--I just take my chances. It hasn't worked out too well this year either; that's the reason, I end up flying JetBlue if I have to go east at the last minute.

Of course. I bought the tickets so fare in advance, they were a mix of H and K fares, K being the domestic, of course. Brings up an interesting point. The H fare (to GIG) was cheap (cheaper than V fares later), but I was able to upgrade the intern'l legs immediately (miles only). Waitlisted for domestic; but I guess the "lower" K fare cost me in the long run for domestic upgrades.

Obviously, much rather be upgraded on the intern'l legs. But there is something mentally unsettling that, after flying 12 hrs in BF, you then fly 3 hrs cramped in coach! (IAH-CLE).