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A business proposal for Continental

 
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 12:12 pm
  #16  
 
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Capital costs (i.e. airplane seats) aside, how much do you really think it costs

Wouldn't the cost of a first class also include the loss of seats due to the fact that you have 12 F seats where you may be able to stuff in 24 Y seats? Isn't that also a revenue losing action?
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 12:24 pm
  #17  
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Originally Posted by radonc1
Capital costs (i.e. airplane seats) aside, how much do you really think it costs

Wouldn't the cost of a first class also include the loss of seats due to the fact that you have 12 F seats where you may be able to stuff in 24 Y seats? Isn't that also a revenue losing action?
Not if you intially planned it that way.

-Vincent
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 12:30 pm
  #18  
 
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Originally Posted by radonc1
Capital costs (i.e. airplane seats) aside, how much do you really think it costs

Wouldn't the cost of a first class also include the loss of seats due to the fact that you have 12 F seats where you may be able to stuff in 24 Y seats? Isn't that also a revenue losing action?
On an MSNBC Business report,3-30-06, Boeng said it will cost 10 times more for an airline to install a FirstClass seat than an economy one on the 787.
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 12:39 pm
  #19  
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Originally Posted by ama208
On an MSNBC Business report,3-30-06, Boeng said it will cost 10 times more for an airline to install a FirstClass seat than an economy one on the 787.
Methinks those will ALL be BusinessFirst seats, hence no FREE UG, so that is a moot point. IF the flight continues somewhere in the US, then some lucky person may get an UG to the said seat, but it will cost miles and/or $ on int'l flights.

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Old Apr 23, 2006, 1:24 pm
  #20  
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Originally Posted by ama208
On an MSNBC Business report,3-30-06, Boeng said it will cost 10 times more for an airline to install a FirstClass seat than an economy one on the 787.
Continental's won't have First Class on thier 787s Not unless they plan on going back to a three cabin configuration...

-Vincent
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 2:23 pm
  #21  
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According to Larry the cost of a F seat is 2x that of a coach seat, because of the extra galley space, extra width, extra leg room and extra closet space.

Mark Bergsrud told a couple of people at the post-dinner discussion that the riff-raff elites are actually their 'worst' customers in that they cost CO the most to service while they pay very little for it.

However, when they are dealing with a plane (high fixed cost), and a fixed schedule, if they publish cheap fares on T/W/S, where a riff-raff pax can fly SFO-FLL for <$200 RT, they aren't taking a seat from a Y/H/K passenger. While that passenger isn't on an average basis creating 'profit', they are adding revenue that otherwise wouldn't be there (its harder to fill planes on T/W/S). So aside from the additional fuel to transport and feed/liquor a plat, the cost isn't so bad.

By doing the upgrades by fare class, they let the truly valuable fliers (the Y/H/Ks) get a higher upgrade percentage and keep them happy. The riff-raff get them when available (Which is increasingly less these days).

Finally, the 50% EQM is important in controlling costs on the el-cheapo tickets. With the cost of booking at co.com essentially 0, versus about $10 on GDS, on a $200 ticket that's 5%, and quite a big difference. In addition, if you look at fares outside the US, say, EWR-TLV and TLV-EWR, while there are differences in the fare itself, most of the relatively cheap (~1000$) fares out of the US are booked in N class, or U class, with 100% EQM, while the same level fares out of Israel are S/X/W, because travel agents get 9%, that's a huge chunk of money, and so CO has a much bigger interest in getting those sales on co.com. In addition, the dollar amount is bigger but also the mileage is huge.
If you book a T fare TLV-EWR-SFO ($1000) with a travel agent you'll get 8200 EQM, co gets $900.
T fare on CO.com, 16,400 EQM, co keeps the whole $1000.
H fare ($2000) TA/CO.com, 24,500 EQM, CO gets 1800/2000, but still at least $800 more.
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 3:37 pm
  #22  
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Originally Posted by Vulcan
Larry alluded to the real reason that CO cannot go more to a revenue based program at Do #1.

CO cannot afford to give its corporate customers the impression that it will reward thier travellers if they spend more money.
Well, if EUAs processed by fare class (sub-Y) within a status level and 50% EQMs on less expensive (but not always "cheap") fares through the required corporate TA aren't two critical "rewards" for spending more money with CO, then I don't know what is...

On AA, fare class does not play into upgrade priority, and (virtually) all fares earn 100% EQM's. The EQP(oint) system which penalizes deep discount fares is only an issue if you are mixing them with high fares (First, Biz, Full coach), in which case its most likely that the discount fares are for personal travel anyway, so the corporation doesn't have anything to worry about.

Last edited by ijgordon; Apr 23, 2006 at 3:43 pm
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 9:58 pm
  #23  
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Refocusing

Originally Posted by vincom
This topic has been discussed more than we like to think about. Mainly when Continental introduced reduced EQM on tickets purchased at other channels than thier own continental.com.
I found discussions on changes to EQM etc. but nothing that was congruent to what I posted.

Originally Posted by vincom
All fares U fare and higher earn 100% and up to 150% EQM based on that fare purchased no matter the channel from which it was purchased. Lower than U fares recieve 50% EQM if the ticket is purchased any other place than continental.com; if purchased at continental.com the ticket recieves full EQM.

This was done to drive lower fare buyers to continental.com where the cost of sales was cheaper; obviously its more expensive to sell through travel agents and telephone agents.
I am well aware of this change. My position is that it's just not enough. Continental is rewarding people on which the company is losing money; that doesn't make any sense to me. I think the move was a positive one--though it had the potential to hurt me at the time--but I understand why it was done; I just think it's not enough.

Originally Posted by vincom
Some airlines like British Airways only reward those who buy higher fares - Continental could do this, but has not - I believe thier compromise was this 50% EQM on none continental.com purchased cheap fares. The American market is much different, screw us once you've lost a customer base for ever. There are many people who buy lower fares and get Platinum, and they are reward accordingly.
I have gone back on this point. I just don't know if it's true. In fact, my instinct tells me that the model would probably work better in the US than in the UK. I think that Continental has a legacy issue with the Elite program it created. It's flying people at a loss and at the same time giving them loads of miles so that they can (decreasingly ) trade for BusinessFirst seats on transatlantic or transpacific lights. If truth be told, one could hit Platinum spending $5k a year, get over 100k miles, then hit Continental with a $5k opportunity cost by flying BF round trip to Europe. Does anyone else not see how absurd this situation is? Then we, the tax payer, get the privilege of bailing airlines out because the business model doesn't work. We get to do it directly as happened after 9/11, or indirectly through the equally ludicrous use of reorganization under bankruptcy ("Chapter 11")

Originally Posted by vincom
This is why EUAs are done by fare class within thier own Elite Level. Continental reward those who fly most and pay most more. just because someone buy high fare, and flies 50k a year doesnt mean they are more important then someone who buys cheap fares and flies 75k a year. Obviously someone else spent more time butt in seat, but that person should be rewarded after those who fly similar amounts but paid more.
I'll just echo my position that the perks should be lean very heavily in the direction of customers that help the airline generate a profit.

Originally Posted by vincom
I have found myself buying more FC seats and Higher Fare Class tickets lately - because of my travel patterns. This works for me and Continental reward me in an H fare as a Platinum before a Platinum on a Q fare - seems fair to me.
I have too. In years past--public confession--I now realize that I have been a freeloader. In the late 90's, I was paying between 30 to 40 cents a mile; last year, it was under 6 cents; this year it's likely to be close to 20. I take advantage of a Z fare to Europe when I can; I also find I buy H, partially because it's priced a little lower, there's a better chance of an upgrade, plus I have more EQM's. Naturally, my motivation is one of self interest. My concern is that through the current structure of the Elite program, Continental is rewarding behavior that detracts from its ability to run at a profit.

Originally Posted by vincom
Seems to me:

1. Continental has figured out a way to thin its ranks. [although they claim the change hasnt been much at all]

2. They already know how to reward thier higher fare paying customer.

and

3. Continental knows a revenue based method of Eliteness would not work.
I frankly don't think anything has changed. One still can get 100% EQM through purchasing a ticket online from Continental. The way to fly under cost and still obtain benefits exists. I don't know about the third point, since I don't have information. I know that if I were CEO of Continental (please, no one hold your breath ) heads would fly over the current structure of the Elite program. The more I have looked at it, the crazier it seems to be.

Originally Posted by vincom
Continental STAR program is an internal tracking method and should not be discussed as a method of loyalty rewardment at all.
I think my point wasn't clear. My point is that Continental should learn from its CO* program and restructure it's Elite program to recognize and reward people that help the carrier generate a profit.

Originally Posted by vincom
I perosnally hate revenue based Elite Programs - for BA it works, but not for an American Carrier.
If truth be told, I would probably hate it too, but I would understand why it's necessary. I just don't buy the argument that it's not for an American carrier.

Originally Posted by vincom
BTW: I think you would have found this was discussed at great great length before, a search would most likely have yieided some results.
I'd also suggest a more descriptive title for your thread. Next time try directing business propoals directly to Continental - they'll be more recptive I'm sure. As someone who knows many people who make elite on cheap fares I wouldn't be in favor of any change to the Elite Program Qualifcation method at all.


-Vincent
I will dig through the archives again, but I did see it. Thanks for changing the title. Just to be self-consistent, there's no way I would give Continental free advice on how to be profitable
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 10:01 pm
  #24  
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I have started to find other pieces of information

Originally Posted by iriefrank
I believe there are negative tax consequences for a revenue-based program. At least some of us have something intelligent to say in reponse to this post.

The notion that a search would have yielded this same discussion is silly. The OP makes at least a few novel points. If you don't want to discuss them, then ignore the thread. Seems pretty easy to me, easier than constructing a scathing 466 word post.

Edited to add: The tax consequences would be by and large negative for us, the memebrs, than the company, is my understanding. I'll let you guys know after I take Tax class!

In fairness, I have started to find other discussions that touch on the issue. I don't think that the post was scathing at all. It's clear to me that a lot of people have a treasured relationship with Continental.

I don't think that there would be any tax consequence. The IRS has looked at and decided not to touch frequent flyer miles (though, when you read the tax code, they clearly fall under the definition of income).
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 10:04 pm
  #25  
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I am talking about Continental

Originally Posted by ijgordon
Yes, but what do any of them really have to do with CO? The OP could be asking about any US FF program, the issues are practically identical. Maybe the thread should be moved to MilesBuzz or whatever.

I am talking only about Continental. Frankly, it's the only major carrier that I care about. I want Continental to be successful, highly profitable and a benchmark for the industry--that helps all of us.
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 10:06 pm
  #26  
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How about opportunity cost

Originally Posted by vincom
Cost between Coach and First Class I would place somewhere between 10 to 15 dollars domestically. [e.g. upgraded food, hot towels, nuts, soda, drinks, and headsets] I understand your are hypothesizing with the 50 dollar figure, but I'm just saying the cost of rewarding a Platinum with an upgrade is really minimal.

Don't forget when looking at one customer - you are not just looking at one person. I as a customer influence many different people who fly - where do I point them? Continental. Several of my clients ask me to handle travel for them, as a result who gets the business? Continental. You see keeping even a cheap Elite happy benefits, because that cheap Elite supports often times various revenue streams.

Cheap Elite = [at the very least] free word of mouth advertising.
Cut off Cheap Elite= no more free word of mouth advertising.

Never forget the human factor - this was frank Lorenzo's one flaw - he knows number great (actully was quite the financial wizard), but he doesn't know how to deal and understand the human factor.

-Vincent
The real cost is the opportunity cost. If someone is upgrade 5-days out, as I have been many times, that seat is no longer available for sale. I know that CO has a yield management program in place, but how can they really know the opportunity cost of filling FC a day before the flight?
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 10:08 pm
  #27  
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That would be fine

Originally Posted by oopsz
There are other airlines which have a more strict revenue-based elite program (BA and CX come to mind.) The problem is if CO makes it hard to become an elite, people will just credit their flights to NW or DL instead...

I would do exactly that. I would fly on cheap seats in Northwest or Delta. The full fare folks would stay with Continental. Tightening up on the Continental Elite program would sift out the budget-minded Elite flyers (like me most of the time). Why not? The airline can work harder on targeting higher revenue passengers.
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 10:10 pm
  #28  
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That's the direction

Originally Posted by WearyBizTrvlr
Nitpicking mode engaged: BA's program isn't really revenue-based, it's a more extreme version of what you find on CO. That is to say, if you buy a cheap I-class business class ticket, you get the same amount of tier points (needed for elite qualification) as when you buy a J-class one. Not only that, since the tier point thresholds are based on mileage, you could buy a cheap $300 I-class fare and get 40 tier points for a short hop like LGW-AMS. Equally, you get only 40 tier points for a four-hour, expensive J-class from London to IST. The difference in fare could be ten-fold. Where the revenue aspect kicks in is that the cheap economy fares do not earn any tier points, WHY-like fares get 20, and business get 40 (for short-haul). You can actually get more tier points on a cheap I-fare than on a fully flexibly Y-fare in the extreme case.

Continental needs to think about something like this program. I wonder if the IT system would be a bottleneck. Sounds like adding more dimensions to the Elite program could be a programming nightmare.
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 10:11 pm
  #29  
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Good point

Originally Posted by Vulcan
Larry alluded to the real reason that CO cannot go more to a revenue based program at Do #1.

CO cannot afford to give its corporate customers the impression that it will reward thier travellers if they spend more money. The corporate customers would immediately bolt, knowing that their people would find a way to spend more money.

The closest CO has been willing to go to revenue based rewards is the Upgrade Policy on the day of travel at the airport:

"Full Economy (Y) Fares - Upgrades for Elites traveling on a full Economy (Y) class fare will be based on Elite status and time of check in.
Discount Fares - Upgrades for Elites traveling on fares other than a full Economy (Y) fare will be based on Elite status, then fare class and finally time of check in. "
I take the point on corporate travellers; that's an interesting perspective. I think that Continental would have to be creative in the way it implements a change.
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Old Apr 23, 2006, 10:14 pm
  #30  
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Cost per mile is a challenge

Originally Posted by Syzygies
Cost per mile is the simplest model that can be entered into a conversation. It's useful for comparing airlines to each other, but not routes within an airline. The next simplest model is fixed cost/variable cost, which would better explain the less expensive per mile domestic long hauls.

Also, a price war is like any war: Inflict harm on oneself, hoping to inflict greater harm on one's enemy. If you don't like wars, please tell my government that every civilization that starts wars comes to ruin.



Ever see the words dimensional weight when shipping UPS? You can't be serious with this estimate!

I agree with the comment you make. CPM is really a gross average. It certainly depends on equipment and route. However you cut it, the revenue per mile should be higher than the cost per mile.

I am not talking about a price war in the way you seem to suggest. I am talking about a subtle leveraging of the the loyalty of Elite members through driving them to higher (not lower) tickets.
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