Please forgive my ignorance...we are lowly silvers and don't often get upgrades.

My son (CO Silver) is flying EWR-ATL this afternoon, on an X-fare. When I checked him in online yesterday, the system asked if he wanted to be upgraded. (Duh!) However, when I printed his boarding pass, it said he was added to the upgrade list, and it looks like he's number 1.

There are 2 seats available in first-class, so what are they holding them for?

They are holding them in case anyone wants to purchase a first-class ticket. Maybe they'll get released at the three-hour window (that's happened to me a lot this year) and maybe they'll wait until has checked-in, run it again, and give out a couple battlefields. That's happened to me too, though nowhere nearly as often as getting upgraded at the 3-hour window.

I don't think it says anywhere what your place on the upgrade list is. It does show a sequence number which indicates the order he checked-in for the flight, but that sequence number is the third criteria in CO's upgrade algorithm (see below).

They're probably hoping somebody will buy them at the last minute. If they don't sell, they'll give them out at the gate. First in line will be any elites on Y-fares, then any plats, then any golds, then any silvers on fares higher than "X," and only if all those categories have been exhausted will they call your son's name and hand him the coveted battlefield upgrade. Good luck!

Thanks...my mistake. He's been upgraded before on this route, so I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Not often? It's often for me! I'm also a lowly Silver, but I get upgrades about 70% of the time. ^ In fact, upgrades are so easy I'm beginning to question my goal of becoming Gold next year. I mean, it's twice as "hard" as getting Silver, and it's not like I can get upgraded 140% of the time! (I know there are ancillary benefits to Gold status, companion upgrades, to name one. And, what's that? Did someone say bragging rights?)

So, Silver ain't so lowly to me. Yes, I know the disclaimer: my experience may not be typical. But it might be more than dumb luck. Perhaps the places I typically fly to and the days and times I typically fly are more conducive to upgrades. Hmmm.

On that note, I have a hunch. I think, on average, flights from CLE (my home base) have less elites on them than those from EWR or IAH. How can we determine if that's the case?

I think getitng upgraded depends on where and when you fly. Obviously, if you are flying IAH-EWR IAH-ORD, IAH-LAX, etc. on Friday/Sunday evening or Monday morning, you aren't getting UG'd unless you are a Plat. I fly ELP-IAH all the time, and choose the mainline service where possible (sometimes it's not in the evenings ELP-IAH), and I get UG'd probably 90% of the time.

Your experience proves it... there are routes, particularly transcons out of EWR, where Plats rarely get upgraded. I'm managing 0% to/from EWR, 33% to/from IAH and 100% to/from CLE as Gold. (Caveats: the IAH sample is much bigger (21 upgradeable segments), and I fly off-peak, so I'm sure there are others with worse records.)