Playing the odds
Jan 15, 2012, 2:45 am
#1
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Playing the odds
Traveling from EWR to SFO in a few months to celebrate w/ the wife, and would like to surprise her by bumping us up to the front cabin. I'm trying to figure out my odds of doing so via a couple different options (yes, I know if I REALLY wanted it, I could just buy - but I'm cheap!)
A few key points:
What % chance of success would you give to each of the following scenarios?
Any other scenarios I should be thinking about?
A few key points:
- We're flying out on the last flight Wednesday night and returning on the early afternoon flight on Sunday.
- Equipment is a 738 w/ 16 seats up front in both directions. I know it's 3 months out, but the Wednesday flight looks to be empty up front right now (seat map view - admittedly not perfect), and the Sunday flight has 10/16 seats open (seat map view again)
- I'm Prem. Platinum, she has no status, and I have 2 RPUs.
What % chance of success would you give to each of the following scenarios?
- I get a CPU, she comes up as my companion
- I get a CPU, use a RPU for her
- I use a RPU for both of us
Any other scenarios I should be thinking about?
Jan 15, 2012, 3:44 am
#2
Join Date: Feb 2003
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Upgrading with miles?
Jan 15, 2012, 5:49 am
#3
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Option 1 has very little chance. Option 2 is what I would do to save one upgrade. But I would apply it only after the 3 or 5 day mark has passed. This way you can see if cpu would have taken care of you.
Jan 15, 2012, 6:53 am
#4
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That's pretty much what I was thinking as well - not that I have anything else planned for that 2nd RPU right now, but I'd really rather not have to use them both up.
Jan 15, 2012, 7:31 am
#5
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I would actually apply them both now. You can always pull them closer to flight and take changes with CPU. I don't think you'll get a companion upgrade on that route. If it were me, I would apply both to my wife's reservation and then take my chances with CPU. I fly all the time up front, she doesn't.
Jan 15, 2012, 11:15 am
#6
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Take PS from JFK, best option of them all!
Jan 15, 2012, 11:46 am
#7
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Jan 15, 2012, 12:09 pm
#8
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Jan 15, 2012, 1:20 pm
#9
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I faced a similar challenge last year (I was 1K, wife had no status) SFO-MIA. I decided to upgrade with miles as I didn't want to take the chance of not getting it. (took a chance on UDU on the return flight from MCO and got it but would have been OK w/E+.) I have a similar trip coming up in a few months and will likely use miles again. I realize I may be "throwing them away" (especially as a GS now) but peace of mind beats all.
Jan 15, 2012, 1:21 pm
#10
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If this is a special trip and you really want to surprise your wife, go with PS SFO-JFK-SFO and apply your regional upgrade. You have a good chance at upgrading on Wed and Sunday and it is business class which trumps CO domestic F anytime (even transcon CO F)
If you sit in the back it is all E+ (not as nice as the reclining exit row on CO)
Jan 15, 2012, 1:29 pm
#11
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One big consideration is do you want wifi or DTV? If you go PS you'll definitely have wifi, if you pick CO you'll most likely have DTV (on a 738/9) or a very good AVOD selection on the 752.
There are two CO 752s (which will have E+ and possibly flat beds) which operate EWR-SFO on a random Wed in March and 2 on SFO-EWR for a random Sun (though one is operated by UA).
Jan 15, 2012, 3:25 pm
#12
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Thanks for the recos!
RE ps - I had thought about that, but she'll be working in NJ on Wednesday, and so a JFK departure was basically out. Thought about it for the return as well, but the return times (4pm and redeye) were less than ideal on a school night.
We're sitting in the 2nd (reclining) exit row in both directions right now, so that's a pretty solid fall back.
Not crazy about using miles to upgrade as my/our stash has gotten pretty low after a few big redemptions (recent and to be made prior to our trip to SFO).
Sounds like the option that best balances %chance of success w/ my admitted cheapness is to wait to see if I clear at 72 hours, and if I do, try to use a RPU for her.
RE ps - I had thought about that, but she'll be working in NJ on Wednesday, and so a JFK departure was basically out. Thought about it for the return as well, but the return times (4pm and redeye) were less than ideal on a school night.
We're sitting in the 2nd (reclining) exit row in both directions right now, so that's a pretty solid fall back.
Not crazy about using miles to upgrade as my/our stash has gotten pretty low after a few big redemptions (recent and to be made prior to our trip to SFO).
Sounds like the option that best balances %chance of success w/ my admitted cheapness is to wait to see if I clear at 72 hours, and if I do, try to use a RPU for her.
Jan 15, 2012, 3:31 pm
#13
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Good options.
Make sure you have aisle/window seats, in case neither of you clear**. And assign your wife the "better" seat in case you get upgraded, and she doesn't, as you'll be giving her your upgrade and sitting in her seat.
**Less likely for someone to sit in the middle of you versus to the right or left.
Make sure you have aisle/window seats, in case neither of you clear**. And assign your wife the "better" seat in case you get upgraded, and she doesn't, as you'll be giving her your upgrade and sitting in her seat.
**Less likely for someone to sit in the middle of you versus to the right or left.
Jan 15, 2012, 10:56 pm
#14
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I think it is easier to upgrade a PS flight to Business than a CO SFO-EWR flight using regional upgrade voucher.
Jan 16, 2012, 7:06 am
#15
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