not if it's a codeshare.

BF from EWR-HKG-EWR is very tough to get as an upgrade because they can sell almost all of the seats at any time of the year. This is my personal experience and confirmed by Elite line. My wife and I were planning to fly HKG-EWR on 1/29 in BF using upgrades. We are both Platinum and bought our tickets (B) in October when BF had 48 empty seats. We have watched as the seat availability is now down to about 6 seats and about 30 people on the standby list.

We rebooked on CO 6 (NRT-IAH) and should get our seats in BF. Had to buy a full Y ticket on ANA to make the connection however. Since I have to be in the ER on the 30th, I need to get some good sleep. I don't want to make a mistake caring for a patient due to sleep deprivation.

I was on the same flts as Vulcan and 99 cleared just after his. I am a Plat. The rtn, yesterday on 98 cleared about 2 weeks before dept.

There was a large list of stdbys for upgrades but of course dont know their fare class or status.

I noticed that on both flts the FAs were stellar. All very senior and they were all very classy and nice. On 98 I swear my FA was a mind reader. No sooner did I finish a bottled water than she brought one to me without being asked.

I was in the exact same position a few years ago. Booked and waitlisted EWR-PEK...two days out the upgrade still didn't clear and 9 to NRT was available.

I ended up paying the $250 change to switch to 9, then waited 4 hours in the Worldclub to take a short hop on NW to PEK.

My non-elite travel companion stayed on the original flight to PEK and cleared BF at the airport 45 minutes before departure.....I should have just left it alone!

I'm in a similar boat for a flight I'm taking at the end of February. Purchased the ticket last week. Flying SFO-EWR-TLV and I am waitlisted for the BF upgrade outbound using the 30,000 miles + $500 co-pay option. Confirmed on the upgrade for the return, which is a week later.

Keeping my fingers crossed since those EWR-TLV flights are usually quite full.

I keep checking the itinerary but it gives me a little comfort that they're holding onto the inventory a bit longer.

The SFO-EWR segment has 0/20 booked in first class, so 100% seats are unsold.
EWR-TLV segment is booked 16/50 seats in BF, so 34 seats still available....

Availability on the domestic upgrade shouldn't affect whether I score the overseas segment, right? That's really the one I care about.

Sometimes they can, sometimes they can't. There are several extensive threads here on the topic of BF upgrades to HKG. There are plenty of flights that go out with 10 or more upgrades cleared. Of course depending on what's going on in HKG, they may have all been Platinums and there may have been 30 upgrade requests on the list.

And you know this how?

I was told that by the CO Elite folks when I called to check on my chances of getting BF.