Post Merger Predictions
 

What will the impact of the merger be on the new United Airlines?

Will the new airline look more like the UA of today, or the CO of today?

And if it will be a combination of the two, which features will survive the merger?

So far, we know that CO has adopted SWU's, a 4th elite level (PPE), and ELR. Oh, and they are dropping their marketing arrangement with American Express.

On the UA side, they added UDU, their version of EUA.

We know the airline's new livery will be the current CO colors with the United name.

We know precious little more, so I thought a little idle speculation might be fun:

1. Fleet: Which planes are most likely to go bye-bye? My vote is UA's 744, because of their general age, and CO's 762, because of their inefficiency. Will UA's large fleet of Airbus planes be retained?

2. Aircraft Interiors: Although the livery is a combination of the two carriers, it seems improbable that they would apply this approach to interiors.

Personally, I find the newest UA interior to be nicer and more comfortable.

Given the debacle with CO's seat provider of choice, Koito, perhaps the decision to keep UA's interiors would be logical.

3. Economy Plus: Obviously all are wondering what the outcome of this sub-cabin will be.

My guess is that it's history. My prediction is rows will be added back in all UA cabins. On the A-319/320 series, I believe they will compensate this by adding one row of FC.

4. International First: Will Smisek retain international first class? And if yes, this implies that all the current BF-equipped CO fleet would be reconfigured to F/J/Y?

I'm on the fence on this one, although I think they might keep international F on certain a/c or routes only, as many foreign carriers do.

5. IFE: Here, CO has the clear advantage. The question is whether UA's domestic fleet will all be fitted with LiveTV receivers and screens or whether this deal (made by Kellner) will be scapped entirely by Smisek in favor of...something else (AVOD and WiFi?

On the overseas fleet, one would certainly hope that UA's current fleet would be fitted with CO's AVOD.

6. Uniforms: Purely based on convenience and cost, one would imagine that UA's uniforms would be retained, since there are more UA employees than CO employees. Personally, I find the UA uniforms slightly spiffier...

7. Website: While many here poopoo UA's website, it actually has a couple of features that could enhance the usability of CO's website, such as the ability to select and price a roundtrip itinerary all on one page. I hope the combined website is able to use the best features from both.

8. Airport Lounges: Will these end up more like the PC's or the RCC's? Will booze be free or not? Will the new carrier keep the overseas locations of the RCC's open, or shut them down and make reciprocal agreements with *A partners?

9. Which Hubs Will Gain/Suffer? ORD and IAH are pretty solid no matter what. But you have to wonder if EWR will see flight volume go down, not so much because it isn't doing well financially, but because the facility is totally maxed out. And what of DEN, CLE, SFO?

10. WE CARE: Can the new UA, in all good conscience, retain the current iteration of 1-800-WE-CARE?

11. FF Program: Will *net blocking continue? Will award travel be a hard to book as it currently is on co.com? Will they retain the nebulous UA GS or the more concretly-stated OP PPE? Will elites receive UA's 6 SWU's, or CO's 4 SWU's?

12. Rhapsody in Blue: George Gershwin's classic composition has been a part of United's marketing for now three decades. It doesn't cost them a penny since a outright, perpetual license was acquired for $500,000. But does the new company retain this iconic tune? My hunch is no, that it's too identified with the old United and that it is history as well.

13. Jeff Smisek Welcome Video: Some here have had a field day with Jeff Smisek's version of the by-now traditional welcome video recorded by each CO CEO since Gordon Bethune. Does the new UA retains Smisek's welcome video, however irritating it may be? My guess is yes, because Jeff Smisek wants the world to know he's the main man of the world's largest airline (I don't begrudge him that in the least, he deserves, I just wish the copy were a little less annoying).

14. RJ Scope Clause: Will Smisek be able to raise CAL ALPA's scopr clause, or will RJ's larger than 50 seats be flown by mainline pilots, as CAL ALPA has suggested?

Many of you know know a lot more about the inner workings of both airlines, and some of you know about as little as me, but, in any case, I would be curious to hear your views on the new UaCo...

Wow...a Baker's dozen of questions previously debated ad nauseum in many other threads and to which no one can publicly state the answers because no one knows.

Actually, I added one more category...:D

Check it out...

I thought uniforms were already decided. They're going to get new uniforms early next year.

You can find authoritative guesses to these and probably many other questions right here:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...er-thread.html

I'm going to actually say IAH is going to suffer some minor shrinkage over time.

Reason being is that CO is funneling quite a bit of traffic through IAH, a lot of which is inefficient given IAH's location. It's great for Latin America and Texas, and such, but not so great for coast-to-coast where I think a lot of traffic lies.

Obviously UA is doing the same via ORD or IAD (to Florida, Texas, Caribbean etc.), which would be better served via IAH, but UA is much weaker in those regions, so the volume by which CO is having people fly the V-shaped pattern across the country is disproportionately higher, and much of that coast-to-coast traffic on CO will be routed through DEN or ORD in the future just because it's quicker and more efficient.

I believe...

744s, 762s exit fleet within 3-5 years. 757s not far behind. A32Xs and 737NGs both stay. No VLA order. E+ is gone. EUA/UDU grow meaningless as virtually all domestic F inventory goes to buy-ups or SWUs. International F on a handful of flagship routes only. IAH, ORD, IAD, SFO are secure while EWR, DEN, CLE decline. No more free booze in clubs. Rhapsody is history for the reason you cite. *net blocking continues. Pilots win on RJ scope.

Net: a bigger, worser airline.

With AA's recent move, I'm pretty sure the lounges will have the cheap booze for free. I think the practice of selling F fares last minute will win out, but to avoid too much blow-back, I'm wondering if United will reintroduce some limited level of guaranteed upgrade devices. Perhaps a mini-SWU or just more SWU's at more levels?

I vote for Gershwin's Rhapsody in Blue to stay. It's a timeless classic hit!

Why is it so many on the CO board seem to root for E+ to go away? For United it makes their elites happy, generates significant income and sets them apart from other legacy carriers. Adding six FC seats really doesn't offset the 40 or 42 additional leg room seats on the 319/320 (including the exit rows).

I say get rid of international F, or at the very least, do not expand it, its really substandard F to foreign carriers anyway. There are carriers with better business class than United F. Just concentrate on a really nice lie-flat international J product and improving service across the fleet.

I really hope E+ does not go away.... but we are not the ones crunching the numbers here.

I do forsee a reduction in award availability on UA/CO metal flights, but hopefully not an implementation of a three level scam like Delta.
But with a very wide selection of partners, the loss of UA/CO availability would mainly hurt the domestic redeemer.

1. Fleet: The 744 sticks around for a good long while. It's too iconic a bird to retire. DL is already using the NW 744 planes as the centerpiece of their advertising. The 762's and anything Airbus are history.

2. Aircraft Interiors: UA kept for economic reasons.

3. Economy Plus: Kept for economic reasons. It is a softer upgrade from E- to E+ than from E- to BF or DF. Besides Economy Plus is a decent product and differentiates UA/CO from DL and AA.

4. International First: Kept on the Asia routes.

5. IFE: What ever it becomes has to be from the CO side.

6. Uniforms: New.

7. Website: Best of both. @:-)

8. Airport Lounges: Free booze yes!! ^ and Lifetime CO PC Members grandfathered in. Domestic lounges become a best of both situation. Owned and operated overseas clubs reduced over time.

9. Which Hubs Will Gain/Suffer? ORD and EWR are the most solid. IAH sees slight decrease due to more efficient traffic routings and the headquarters move. IAD and SFO about the same. DEN decreases and CLE gutted.

10. WE CARE: Some new watered down version.

11. FF Program: *net blocking continues. Award travel will only get harder to book. SWU's get reduced/eliminated in favor of an EUA/UDU scheme.

12. Rhapsody in Blue: Kept in the medium term (5 years).

13. Jeff Smisek Welcome Video: Kept; but rotated among different C-Level employees from both companies.

14. RJ Scope Clause: No insight or opinion here.

If the powers that be keep the best of both mentality this can really turn into a very decent airline. In any case it will certainly be staffed by the most professional men and woman in the industry... ;)


SunLover

I wish, but they won't retain old, fuel-hungry airplanes that are wrong-sized for most routes and seem to have grim dispatch reliability (judging from the agonies reported in the UA forum from people trying to go to Australia) just because they're "iconic" and look good in TV ads. I foresee 777s/787s as the longhaul mainstays systemwide.

EWR is far from maxed out. As noted in other threads, Terminal A has a lot of potential once its received its scheduled renovation (resurrection?). Assuming CO/UA moves all XJ/Dash service to terminal A (along with mainline overflow), capacity at C will be freed up.

SFO is safe - it provides a solid west coast alternative to LAX, and has good connections with *A partners (and LCCs). DEN & CLE are questionable, but will stick around for the moment; if I had to hazard a guess, I'd say DEN is safer than CLE, given UA's commitments and CO's historical link to the Denver market (it's a former CO HQ).