Couldn't find any info as re the likelihood of these upgrades going through in practice. I'm buying a one way ticket LHR-IAH. A full fare Y on Air NZ LHR-LAX (plus tack on in cheapo Y to IAH) is significantly cheaper than a B fare on CO LHR-IAH in mid-June.

For mid-June, which do you think would be more likely to actually result in the upgrade? CO Gold, if it matters.

I know that the *A upgrades are by segment - I don't care, just want to get state-side in J, and don't mind going out of the way for a nice J product like NZ's+extra miles.

I've asked this on the NZ forum to no avail.

Thanks!

Unfortunate, as they are likely to know best.

One of the biggest "problems" with the *A awards is that there is no waitlist. This applies across the board. You'd have to find a flight that has the upgrade inventory available or stalk it pretty much every day until it open up. It does appear that ExpertFlyer supports the NZ Z bucket - the one that upgrades come from - so you could set an alert with that but that front cabin is in quite high demand so it will be a tough one to grab.

As a CO gold you're able to waitlist and that increases your chances of clearing a lot, though still not certain.

The other thing that I'd be potentially concerned about is that the cheap fare you are seeing is likely the YGB3OW or YGB30OW fare. Even though it does actually start with a "Y" in the fare basis there is a chance that you'll not be able to upgrade it since it isn't a full fare. I'm really not at all certain about this but I recall people reporting similar issues with other partner carriers. You might want to ask about that potential issue in the *A forum to see if one of the regulars there has more insight on that aspect of the *A upgrade program.

Thanks, sbm12. You're right - it is the YGB30OW fare, though I did call NZ Reservations and requested the full fare Y and that was what they quoted me!

I thought 800 USD one way was a little low for full fare Y... Especially since everything else ex-EU was several thousand $.