Well, for starters, Express Mail can always be tracked by the number on the label, and the same goes for Fedex et al. You can also purchase tracking for Priority Mail as an add-on. I guess the moral to the story here is not to count on the USPS for travel related advice. ETA: It should go without saying that you should write down the number on the airway bill if you fancy taking advantage of the tracking feature.

The consulate drops it in the mail (or gives it to the Fed Ex guy) by the day they promise, sometimes a day or two earlier. From that point on, much depends on what service you paid for (e.g. early morning FedEx and you'll have it the next day by 10a).
See post 2.

Just enclose a #10 envelope with a 44 cent stamp on it and your return address.

I know I did not use a #10 envelope but I used an envelope that was big enough for the passport to fit and I also put a 61 cent stamp on it, so I think I should be fine. It is not like the USPS will lose my mail...

#10 is big enough, and 44 cents is enough unless you have a 48 page extension. I am not worried about the USPS losing my unemployment checks..and that's more important than a visa to China.

Are you of Chinese origin, or at least appear to be of Chinese origin?

I could have sworn you were being facetious. Whether or not you were, I hope the OP doesn't take your advice.

Look at it this way:

A. your unemployment check
B. passport with newly issued Chinese visa

If item A is lost, a simple phone call will result in a replacement (I'm assuming). If item B is lost on the other hand, the concerned party will need to fork over $75 for a new passport, $130+ for a new visa, and wait at least a week (and that's a very aggressive estimate) before he can travel anywhere (i.e. a really bad proposition for persons that travel as a part of their work).

At this point, it's worth noting that during one of my mailback experiences, I used Express Mail to retrieve my passport from the PRC consulate with a Thursday mail date and a flight (back to China) the following Monday. Guess what? My passport didn't show up on Friday,.... but, did make it on Saturday. Needless to say, that ordeal imparted a fair amount of anxiety on this moondog (though I won't complain too much because I did get my $14 back from USPS).

In closing, here's my advice for the OP:

-ask your dad, or an older friend who works for or owns a company with a FedEx account, to give you an airway bill and envelop with his account number on it
-fill in your address
-select your service level (personally, I'd go with one of the slower options since your trip isn't until next month)
-write down the tracking number
-send it to your friend along with your passport and visa application (for the money part, I suggest you give your friend a check for $135 and let him put the fees on his credit card)

44 cents vs $14.00

You are paying a 3000 % premium that still doesn't guarantee against loss.

Yes and with an infamous surname!

OP - listen to Moondog. Ann shoots posts from the hip and without much thought

I'll second moondog's advice. I've had to replace a lost passport before and it is not fun. Fedex may cost a little more, but it is traceable and, unlike the Post Office, when in the rare instance that something gets lost, Fedex will actually look for it.

shoot from the hip

the instincts of the individual make it unnecessary to stop and analyze the situation in order to choose the right course of action. Instead, the instincts quickly draw on the collective experience of the individual and make it possible to arrive at the proper course of action immediately.^

Since you're going to be in HK (and area) for a long period, suggest you register your passport with the state department on-line, and then physically update at the HK consulate once you get set up with living arrangements, local phone number(s), etc. after arrival.

Second - make copies of your passport, carry one with you and keep one with someone stateside in case of emergency.

Not critical, consider applying for a "passport card" - it was concieved as acceptable ID for land crossings to Canada and Mexico but can also act as excellent backup to a photo-copy.

And last, get extra passport photos to bring along - they come in useful.

My friend received the package late yesterday and I think she will deliver it either later today or tomorrow.

Since my flight to Hong Kong is about a month and a half from now I think I will be alright if the return mail is delayed a little bit and I think there is a very good chance the USPS will deliver my mail. I just hope a regular stamped envelope is acceptable...

I already asked the bank to write a cashier's check for $135, written to the Chinese Embassy, and I mailed it with the visa application/passport/etc. so it is too late however I think I am alright since the Chinese Embassy-Consulate website says that a cashier's check is an acceptable form of payment.

LA office takes VISA/MC also at pickup window.

I think you could even get a prepaid Fedex label printed at any Kinkos these days.