More flights [ex-China to N America and Europe]
Jul 15, 2023, 9:01 pm
#46
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I think it's more likely the PRC government is only permitting tourism to countries that are not hostile. Canada, U.S. and Australia (and might as well throw in the other "Five Eyes" nations, U.K. and N.Z.) are deemed hostile so at the receiving end of what is essentially a trade embargo.
Yes inbound tourism in Australia is way down, but it's not all due to politics. To my surprise, NZ still has a mandatory seven-day self-isolation after testing positive.
Jul 15, 2023, 9:22 pm
#47
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And what better way to embargo or at least discourage tourist trade by restricting supply and jacking up prices? Reportedly group tourism (albeit supposedly falling out of favour) is only approved to 60 countries and the U.S. is stated to be not one of them (I suspect Canada is another).
Jul 15, 2023, 9:37 pm
#48
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Jul 15, 2023, 9:50 pm
#49
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Apparently, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, et al didn't reject the offer (or modifications were minimal). It's not China's fault that the US DOT bends over backwards for US carriers and their lobbyists.
Jul 15, 2023, 10:03 pm
#51
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U.S. politics is U.S. (always protectionis but that's o.k. as it's American Exceptionalism).
Jul 16, 2023, 12:35 am
#52
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Airfares between China and Australia are back down to pre-pandemic levels, unlike the prices between China and North America. I just flew to Australia from China on a business class return ticket for around CNY15,000.
Yes inbound tourism in Australia is way down, but it's not all due to politics. To my surprise, NZ still has a mandatory seven-day self-isolation after testing positive.
Yes inbound tourism in Australia is way down, but it's not all due to politics. To my surprise, NZ still has a mandatory seven-day self-isolation after testing positive.
Jul 16, 2023, 1:55 am
#53
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I want to throw out a theory that could partially explain why France is more keen on adding flights than Canada. (I'm choosing France because they also only have one airline that flies to China.)
In both cases, turning up the volume entails opening the door to at least four Chinese airlines that each has the ability and interest to ramp up.
Canada has 3 o&d cities v 1 for France; fares on these invariably drop like a rock when market forces are permitted to guide business decisions.
In addition to YUL, YVR, and YYZ, AC offers connecting service to about 30 other cities, including the top 10 in the US. These routes might be lucrative enough to offset the reduced profit margins on o&d if they can scale. On the other hand, maybe that's not the case.
Meanwhile, AF has already taken the plunge, so its period of generating extremely high profits on 4 flights per week is over. The trade-off is that it is now able to connect China to its entire network (including Boston, New York, DC, Toronto, and Montreal) at scale. If they hadn't done this, they would have lost out to other European carriers. The Chinese carriers that are beating them down on China-CDG routes don't have the onward connections card.
In short, France opening up seems to be a sensible decision, and I can sort of understand why Canada's calculus could be different.
In both cases, turning up the volume entails opening the door to at least four Chinese airlines that each has the ability and interest to ramp up.
Canada has 3 o&d cities v 1 for France; fares on these invariably drop like a rock when market forces are permitted to guide business decisions.
In addition to YUL, YVR, and YYZ, AC offers connecting service to about 30 other cities, including the top 10 in the US. These routes might be lucrative enough to offset the reduced profit margins on o&d if they can scale. On the other hand, maybe that's not the case.
Meanwhile, AF has already taken the plunge, so its period of generating extremely high profits on 4 flights per week is over. The trade-off is that it is now able to connect China to its entire network (including Boston, New York, DC, Toronto, and Montreal) at scale. If they hadn't done this, they would have lost out to other European carriers. The Chinese carriers that are beating them down on China-CDG routes don't have the onward connections card.
In short, France opening up seems to be a sensible decision, and I can sort of understand why Canada's calculus could be different.
Jul 16, 2023, 4:41 am
#54
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I believe AF and MU have a joint venture agreement, it makes sense that the CDG - PVG route quickly gets revived as it helps both sides. So passengers profit from connections on both ends in this case, and AF KLM and MU probably have some profit sharing going along with it.
Jul 16, 2023, 4:54 am
#55
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I believe AF and MU have a joint venture agreement, it makes sense that the CDG - PVG route quickly gets revived as it helps both sides. So passengers profit from connections on both ends in this case, and AF KLM and MU probably have some profit sharing going along with it.
Jul 16, 2023, 6:51 am
#56
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I believe AF and MU have a joint venture agreement, it makes sense that the CDG - PVG route quickly gets revived as it helps both sides. So passengers profit from connections on both ends in this case, and AF KLM and MU probably have some profit sharing going along with it.
Jul 16, 2023, 7:38 am
#57
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I think the biggest stumbling block to increased US/Canada flights to China is the Russian airspace issue.
As long as US/CDN airlines cannot overfly Russia, regularly scheduled service will not resume.
These flights will remain a casualty of the Ukraine war.
As long as US/CDN airlines cannot overfly Russia, regularly scheduled service will not resume.
These flights will remain a casualty of the Ukraine war.
Jul 16, 2023, 7:52 am
#58
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Did west coast North American flights to China used Russian air space?
Jul 16, 2023, 8:01 am
#59
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I've said this previously here, but I believe the Chinese carriers would be willing to give up Russia overflights, at least on new routes, if the US would reaffirm the reciprocity model that was the result of hundreds of meetings over 2+ decades. But, if the cap was set at ~70 frequencies/side/week, the Chinese carriers would have no problem maxing out their allotment, and United could presumably cobble together at least 35. But, AA and DL aren't ready to re-enter the arena yet, so their fares would be depressed AND UA's position as the dominant US carrier would be cemented for the next several years, at minimum... basically a lose-lose for AA/DL.
Last edited by moondog; Jul 16, 2023 at 9:28 am
Jul 16, 2023, 8:04 am
#60
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