Troopers

I value UR at about 2 cents per based on my average redemptions rounding up due to UR flexibility and desirable transfer partners.

Hyatt is typically the highest HOTEL redemption UR transfer partner.

Also, redemption rate is independent of earning rate.

ETA: added HOTEL

TravelinSperry

Did you read my response? I even specifically said I don't know if TPG is correct. Surely that doesn't mean I quote him as "gospel". I am trying to learn about value and redemption and simply challenged some of what you said so I could learn more. Sorry you feel that you are above being questioned in any regard. Enjoy.

TravelinSperry

What do you value Hyatt points at? For example, for Starwood points, I currently value them at 2.7 cents per (although this will be changing in August). I value Marriott at .009 cents per and Hilton at .006 cents per (just showing different examples). I have very limited experience with Hyatt so that's why I ask what you value them at (this will help me properly value a UR point).

Earning and redemption are tied together. Here's an example why: if a Hilton cc were to provide 3 points per $ spent on everyday spend and you valued each Hilton point at .006 cents per... you'd end up with 1.8 cents per in value per dollar spent. Now if a Marriott card were to provide 2 points per $ spent on everyday spend and you value them at .009 cents per... you'd end up with the same 1.8 cents per in value per dollar spent. So you can see if one just looks at redemption value without looking at how much they would earn - they would erroneously believe Marriott is worth more than Hilton. But if Hilton is going to give us more of their points for the same spend - they can equal it out.

Troopers

Most value UR (and other currencies) within a couple tenths of a cent. Some redemptions are higher while are lower than it's value. It's value is solely dependent on how you redeem them. Most value UR and SPG more because of their flexible and desirable transfer partners.

Troopers

I haven't transferred into Hyatt so I don't have a valuation based on redemption. But I'm sure I won't be far off from the general consensus of a per Hyatt point.

The earn rate is based on the card and spending. The redemption value varies based on how points are redeemed for each unique redemption. Earn rate and redemption value changes independently of each other.

Note, the 33% devaluation is a earning rate drop...one will earn 33% less points in August than today. The redemption stays the same (ignoring the new merged program).

krazykanuck

IMO only if you're earning the points solely through a co-brand CC. Say you're transferring UR points to Hyatt. You can't really make the argument that Hyatt redemption values are impacted by how you earn the UR points, because a UR point is a UR point regardless of how it's created, via a CSR or a Freedom or whatever. You can earn 3x on dining with a CSR and 1x on a Freedom, that doesn't change what it's worth when you transfer the points, because you still have 3x and 1x points, respectively.

conde

Ultimate Reward Points are overrated in their value. Some bloggers such as The Points Guy will claim that Ultimate Rewards Points are worth ~2.1-2.2 cents each. Maybe there are redemption opportunities out there to gain outsized value. That is true of all flexible currencies such as Amex Membership Rewards Points and Citi ThankYou Points.

The Points Guy (other bloggers are guilty of this too) does not elaborate on the methodology to determine valuation; none of the valuations of the transfer partners' points currencies he rates are valued that highly. For example, Hyatt is supposed to be one of UR's better redemption partners. The Points Guy recently stated Hyatt points were worth 1.8 cents per point.(I factor their value at about 1.6-1.7 cents/point, although a range of 1.6-1.8 seems reasonable), I like to accumulate Hyatt points to use for redemption, and I have made use of redemptions at valuation rates better than the bloggers' valuations. Basically, for Ultimate Rewards points, transfer flexibility is priced in, to make the values higher (if one sells reward points to someone else, the buyer might pay high prices for less restrictions). One will not see that value returned when the points are redeemed. If pricing in flexibility, the value should still not exceed the redemption value.

It all comes down to preference in redemption partners, pattern of earnings, and which will work best for each person. Anyone is free to value each currency as they choose. One should not take bloggers' points valuations as gospel.

Troopers

Beyond the redemptions in determining UR value, there's value in the currency due to its flexibility (transfers partners, travel portals, gift cards) and the ability to shield it from devaluation/expiration. There's value there...is it worth a tenth of cent? Two tenths of a cent? Would you rather have 95,000 UR or 100,000 Hyatt or 100,000 UA, etc?

conde

I would rather have Membership Rewards points and Citi ThankYou points, as I prefer the selection of redemption partners. I can accumulate Hyatt points without Ultimate Rewards, and much prefer the airline partners from Membership Rewards and Citi ThankYou. Although flexible currencies are often preferable, I could never value them more than the highest transfer partner valuation. A better way to value individual partners like Hyatt would be discount the individual partner's point valuation (in order to factor in devaluation risk, program change risk, etc) rather than increasing the valuation of the flexible currency.

Troopers

I would include co-brand CC as earn rates are not fixed.

Troopers

I don't understand the logic as UR earning ability is much higher.


The discussion is how to value UR (or flexible currency). In absence of a known transfer partner and redemption, how would you value a flexible currency?

TravelinSperry

Agreed. My analysis and posts in this thread are solely related to and describing earning via cc's (not in-stay earning at hotels, hotel promos, etc). I am seeking a new cc due to the upcoming devalue of SPG Amex and this was the impetus in trying to understand UR values via this method.

Thank you for your response. This is what I have come to believe as well. It appears that no matter where I search or where I ask questions no one provides a rational reason why they are valuing UR at >2 cents. Sure, isolated redemptions may be. I sometimes got >5 cents on C&P at Starwood. But I still value them on average at 2.7 cents per currently. You can't just take your top redemption and use that to value. You have to take the average of all your redemptions over the years. One has to come up with a value in order to compare all these credit cards. It appears to me that Hyatt at 1.7 (just took your middle #) is the high end, unless you redeem for airline biz/first and want to assign a personal value higher than that. It's legitimate to do that way, but for me at least, I'd never pay for biz/first so that rate is not exactly fair and wouldn't be how I'd compare.

As to the other poster who wants to assign value for flexibility, I understand that point. But if you're going to assign value for extraneous things, one could then start to do so for things like "no blackout dates" or "expected future devaluations" or "transfer speed", etc. In a tie-break scenario I think one may err towards the currency where they value this sort of stuff... but if there is a significant difference between MR & UR values for instance, then I don't think these things come into play (unless you are willing to forgo $ value for something that matters to you more personally). That seems a stretch although I can see scenarios where it would come into play. For example, I recently applied for Hilton's Aspire card... the currency is worth similar value to UR yet is less flexible (as it's locked to one chain). However, it comes with top tier Diamond Status, which I prefer over flexibility. That is obviously a personal and not $ related choice (similar to how flexibility is for the poster who values such).

Troopers

@TravelinSperry, I suggest you Google "Chase UR value" or similar.

Super Mario

The best way to get a "valuation" is to figure out how you would use them. Are you going to transfer to Delta? Hyatt? None of the above? Don't let the internet tell you what they are worth, by basing their number off of a few transfer partners and redemptions that you will never use. In my scenario, I don't care if I can get business first class for 5 cents a point. I consider my points to be like my money. I wouldn't buy that flight because of a "valuation" unless it was a crazy deal.

I believe on average, the two cards are a lot closer than we think. Add in the insurance for the CSR, and that's another important factor. I couldn't imagine booking premium flight options without insuring them.

conde

One can accumulate Hyatt points through stays and also the Hyatt CC. The Hyatt CC offers a competitive if not superior value proposition to the Chase Sapphire Reserve and other UR earning channels if redeeming for Hyatt. The Hyatt CC's annual Cat 4 free night cert, free Discoverist status, and MLife Pearl match (I am Explorist without the card, however the Hyatt card's status provides that additional value) more than makes up for better bonus earn on the Chase Sapphire Reserve. I have no desire to utilize any other of the Ultimate Rewards transfer partners.

The value of a flexible currency still lies in the redemption ability in the underlying partners. On a basis to state universal value, at best I would value the flexible currency at the value of the highest rated partner. To be conservative, perhaps the value could be aggregated. I would never rate the flexible currency's value higher than any single transfer partner because that redemption value would never be realized. In the case of Ultimate Rewards, I don't see the rationale to rate the value at ~2.1~2.2 cents per point. I would rate UR ~1.8 cents per point, about the same as I value Membership Rewards.