In looking at past posts it appears the best time to snag CX awards via AA is as far out as possibble. Although there are mentions of last minute availability around a few weeks out. I understand it varies based on the rev mgmnt but does anyone have a good guestimate as to how close to departure is the best time to check ?

Thanks

You have to factor in the obvious.... time of year travelling, weekend travel, gateway point, how many seats, in what class etc.

CX releases award seats as and when it is needed. For some routes like the JFK route, it is rare for F seat to be made available at all, and only a number of J seats too.

But generally, seats are limited .. and CX does release them about 10 months in advance. When they're gone, the 'reserve' goes to their own Marco Polo and Asiamiles members who can waitlist CX awards.

This has been covered several times so it should have been in the past threads that you found.

CX seems to release seats at the 2 week mark and again 3-5 days before flight date. This year CX seems to have zeroed out certain flights and/or days of the week (eg. may be zero awards on any friday JFK-HKG, etc.). Checking different flights and dates for the same route often has a lot different availability. The zeroed out flights do seem to have a better chance of getting seats less than a week before. CX is pretty good for last-minute travel but terrible for booking a year ahead.

Final point, Asiamiles members can waitlist for CX awards, so when they do come available it goes to AM requests first. Using AM if you have it, even without MPC status, will effectively get you priority over the AA requests.

I'm waitlisted for 2 seats in U Jul 1st on 889 and Jul 16th on 888. I'm not expecting much movement, but I want to keep my chances alive for as long as possible. Currently they've given me a Jun 21 ticketing deadline, so if they release seats 3-5 days before the flight date, would they extend my ticketing deadline in the likely chance that nothing will be confirmed by Jun 21?

Is yours a full redemption? If so, the normal deadline is 10 days before the first flight. (Upgrade is four days.) You can call to extend the deadline. The problem is that even extending the deadline may not help as you need two tickets.

My redemption booking is a roundtrip upgrade booking from Y-J for both my son and I. Yes, I figure it's a longshot, but why not at least try? As the deadline approaches then, I'll probably call to extend. Oh, meant to ask, is the CX seatmap online (for dummy bookings) a good predictor for actual available seats?

No, lots of ticketed pax don't have seats assigned for various reasons, so the seat map overstates availability by a large factor.

There are also a lot of passengers who travel on last-minute arrangement. The fact that both travelers have elite status will help, but JKF is one of the worst routes.