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CX's future ULR fleets?

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Old May 5, 2005 | 4:06 pm
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Originally Posted by panjabi
As it stands now DFW has lost (since 9/11) Air France, Sabena, Swiss Air and a daily JAL flight. It hoped to make up (by now) with Air India, CX, SQ and KLM. None of those happened.
What is the attraction of DFW as a destination, other than to connect with/fed by AA flights? IAH seems to have the oil market.

Did/does CX have any 345s on order?
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Old May 5, 2005 | 4:14 pm
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DFW is a huge AA hub (the largest). In addition DFW is now the fourth largest concentration of S. Asian and SE Asian immigrants. Currently this market is hugely underserved. However there is a problem. Most airliners today cannot fly from DFW to any major S Asian or SE Asian hubs. And since a one stop flight to DFW is a no-no (because a customer would rather fly to JFK, LAX or SFO and connect), this quirk of geography has left this gold pot untouched. Many airlines come and look at the numbers and try to think as to how to make it work. With the introduction of the 777-200LR (if the numbers hold up), this will finally work for the airlines. Air India has already announced that they will use their 777-200 LR for a non-stop DEL or BOM to DFW service. Look for Malaysia, SQ, Thai and CX not to be too far behind. Their are also rumors that PIA (which is the launch airline for the Worldliner) has either DFW or IAH in their sights.
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Old May 5, 2005 | 6:41 pm
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Originally Posted by panjabi
DFW is a huge AA hub (the largest). In addition DFW is now the fourth largest concentration of S. Asian and SE Asian immigrants. Currently this market is hugely underserved. However there is a problem. Most airliners today cannot fly from DFW to any major S Asian or SE Asian hubs. And since a one stop flight to DFW is a no-no (because a customer would rather fly to JFK, LAX or SFO and connect), this quirk of geography has left this gold pot untouched. Many airlines come and look at the numbers and try to think as to how to make it work. With the introduction of the 777-200LR (if the numbers hold up), this will finally work for the airlines. Air India has already announced that they will use their 777-200 LR for a non-stop DEL or BOM to DFW service. Look for Malaysia, SQ, Thai and CX not to be too far behind. Their are also rumors that PIA (which is the launch airline for the Worldliner) has either DFW or IAH in their sights.
CX would better off to do ORD rather than DFW, or either make DFW with a 1-stop flight at ORD, so that aircraft have enough range and serve both cities. ORD would get plenty of connection traffic from both AA and UA, since ORD is the hub for both airlines, whereas DFW only have AA. But now CX is getting harder to get to ORD, with UA is going to start the three times a week 2nd daily nonstop ORD-HKG very soon.
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Old May 5, 2005 | 7:35 pm
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There seems to be something about both DFW and ORD and long-haul service. QF bought 744ERs expressly to serve AKL-DFW non-stop, had the press release announcing the route, and then decided not to (using them SYD-LAX instead). Also announced SYD-LAX-ORD service 3 times a week, then a week before launch, after selling tickets on the flights, canned it (preferring to leave the 744s on the ground all day at LAX instead). This happened twice. The economics of these midwest to SE Asia/Australia flights must be quite intricate.
The 772LR does seem like a great plane, but I've heard that CX is much more interested in the 773ER which suggests it is more a 346 replacement and frequency boost for existing routes than opening up new ones. Plus the 744Adv seems to be a sure thing now with at least 5 airlines serious about it. The A380 delays are really ticking SQ off and it seems ready to sign up for the 744Adv now, if rumours are to be believed.
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Old May 5, 2005 | 8:21 pm
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Number_6, you are so right on DFW. It is one of the most frustrating targets for the major international airlines in the Asian/Pacific region. It is one of the largest metro areas in the country (6.5 million), has the fourth highest Asian immigrant population, has the worlds largest telecom industry, is the fourth largest software center and is the second largest oil and gas center. Yet it is also geographically at the bottom and middle of N. America. So whether you come from the Pacific or the Atlantic, it is pretty much the farthest spot on the continent (along with IAH). And till the 345 came along, no plane could hit it non-stop from anywhere in S. Asia, SE Asia or Australia.

Due to the horrific economics of the 345 it did not work out, but with the 777-200LR you will see airlines adding this sector very fast. Also keep in mind, that unlike ORD, JFK, LAX, MIA, SFO, BOS and EWR, DFW has NO direct service to S. Asia, SE Asia or Australia. Each of the above mentioned other airports already has a major (domestic or international) that has direct flights. Thus the first guys into DFW will basically have a monopoly.

Keep in mind that ORD has UA which is a heavy Asia player. On the other hand DFW has AA which is almost non-existent in Asia (except for Japan).

You are correct on the 747ADV. But I have a feeling that it will complement the 777-200LR as some of the airports would not be able to support a full load of the 747ADV

Last edited by panjabi; May 5, 2005 at 9:14 pm
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Old May 5, 2005 | 9:43 pm
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Another factor which I'm sure is making the aircraft decision even harder is CX's preference for 4 engines over the pacific. It will take that mindset to change before ordering the 772/3ERs. The 744 Advanced would of course fit into their current thinking very well if Boeing would give the green light...
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Old May 5, 2005 | 10:38 pm
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Who offers direct (not having to get of the plane) service between MIA and SE Asia? I dont feel that Korea or Japan is considered to be SE Asia. CX would make a killing on DFW-HKG when teaming up with AA. The load factors on NRT-DFW are very hight with over 20% of the traffic just connecting in both Japan and Dallas.
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Old May 6, 2005 | 6:43 am
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Originally Posted by number_6
announced SYD-LAX-ORD service 3 times a week, then a week before launch, after selling tickets on the flights, canned it (preferring to leave the 744s on the ground all day at LAX instead). .
OH really? I thought they did launch the service but after 1 month they canned it? So the Kangaroo never made it to ORD?
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Old May 6, 2005 | 7:10 am
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I know it's getting off-topic, but I wonder about the future of KE's ICN-DFW service. While there's a substantial Korean community in the Dallas area, DL has disassembled its hub at DFW, so KE has lost all its connecting traffic there. Wonder if they'll switch to IAH and connect with CO instead. But the Korean community is much smaller here in Houston.

PIA already flies IAH-MAN-Pakistan. But I think they'll probably use their upcoming 772LR for non-stops to New York, and keep IAH as one-stop. Or maybe they'll fly to JFK 4 times a week, IAH three times, or something like that.

Another non-stop Texas-Asia possibility is China Airlines. They do have IAH-SEA-TPE three times a week right now with 340s. CI doesn't have ultra-longhaul planes right now, but I think they can certainly order 772LR for non-stop TPE-New York and TPE-IAH, at least to try to catch up with EVA on their N. American service.

Last edited by rkkwan; May 6, 2005 at 7:13 am
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Old May 6, 2005 | 7:20 am
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Originally Posted by newcx12345
OH really? I thought they did launch the service but after 1 month they canned it? So the Kangaroo never made it to ORD?
QF never started the ORD service. The 2nd time it was cancelled about a week before it was due to start, and pax rebooked onto AA ORD-LAX (quite a change to move from QF F on a 744 to AA F on S80). Obviously preparations were well advanced; and the problem wasn't aircraft availability (QF has up to 6 744s spending 12 hours a day on the ground at LAX). Obviously QF decided the route wouldn't be profitable, and codesharing on the hourly LAX-ORD flights on AA was good enough. More intriguingly QF has had signs up at MIA for QANTAS for several years now (and never flown to MIA, though they do codeshare on AA LAX-MIA). Maybe that is QF's secret plan.
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Old May 6, 2005 | 8:54 am
  #26  
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Originally Posted by panjabi
CX is interested in the 787. As far as the 747ADV goes, they are (along with BA and possibly Virgin) going to the launch customers. In fact, it can be safely said, that Boeing had pressure from BA and CX to develop this aircraft. Odd!
That is certainly an interesting bit of information. I thought Boeing has been reluctant in pushing forward the B747ADV program because of a lack of interests. I guess interests from BA & CX alone are not sufficient for Boeing to move forward. If BA and CX are indeed pushing for the B747ADV, it most likely means they are not interested in the A380. Unless there are no other alternatives (if the B747ADV doesn't pan out), BA & CX may not even order the A380! That can be a big problem for Airbus since there aren't too many carriers with hubs like LHR/HKG that can use a few A380.

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Old May 6, 2005 | 12:27 pm
  #27  
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But

But I guess if Boeing 747ADV program does not go through, CX will have to purchase A380s... the slot problems at LHR will not likely to go away anytime soon. CX is already running thrice daily flights, as well as BA. But I guess for BA, A380s can be more useful than CX. BA have more prime routes like LHR-NRT or LHR-LAX/JFK, LHR-JNB, or LHR-SYD/MEL, and CX only has a handful... HKG-LHR, or HKG-LAX, or HKG-SYD.

Anyway, I still feel that CX is going to continue to be conservative in its fleet planning department... it will possibly not order any A380 or Boeing 787 till the product is finishing its testing phase or even some airlines are already using them. I also wonder if 747 Advance does not go through, will CX go ahead with Boeing 777-300ERs to replace 747-400s or will go with Airbus A340-500/600s, since CX seems to commit to the ideas that 777s for regional, 330 for thinner regional/medium haul, and 340s for long haul. Those 744s are aging very quickly, but CX keeps us waiting... and this waiting seems to be taking forever.

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Old May 6, 2005 | 9:13 pm
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You are correct on Boeing being very conservative before launching the 747ADV. They want to make sure that they have commitments for atleast 50 aircraft before they launch. Here is an interesting thing that I heard three weeks ago. Boeing is pressuring Virgin to accept the 747ADV instead of the 744. However Richard Branson told Boeing he is happy with the 744 and would gladly order more if they reduced the price. Boeing, sensing a loss in a potential 747ADV order here has refused to accede to his demands. Thus the stand off.
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Old May 7, 2005 | 6:18 pm
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There is no BOS to ASIA

Due to the horrific economics of the 345 it did not work out, but with the 777-200LR you will see airlines adding this sector very fast. Also keep in mind, that unlike ORD, JFK, LAX, MIA, SFO, BOS and EWR, DFW has NO direct service to S. Asia, SE Asia or Australia. Each of the above mentioned other airports already has a major (domestic or international) that has direct flights. Thus the first guys into DFW will basically have a monopoly.

What airline serves BOS taoASIA? NONE I am aware of. Korean Aier served BOS as a 1 stop through IAD and JFK for a while a long time ago. AA announced and loaded the res system a few years back BOS to NRT on the 77-200ER but never flew it as a non stop as they could not get the NRT slots. They did fly it as a one stop with an MD11 the rough SJC for a while about 10 years ago but then changed it to a change plane when the MD11's broke down.
The most not understood -Why CX or AA does not fly ORD to HKG. They both have the planes to do that route.
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Old May 8, 2005 | 5:39 pm
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Originally Posted by zman
What airline serves BOS taoASIA? NONE I am aware of. Korean Aier served BOS as a 1 stop through IAD and JFK for a while a long time ago.
I've heard BOS's runways are reputedly too short at some 10,000' for heavily-loaded a/c to fly n/s to Asia. I believe SJC used to suffer from this until the main runway was extended to 11,000'. Too late to bring back/save AA's SJC-NRT service.
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