When Does CX Return to Normalcy?
May 18, 2020 | 12:43 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NYC
Programs: CO Platinum/1K, SPG Platinum/Ambassador
Posts: 1,759
When Does CX Return to Normalcy?
Wanted to get peoples thoughts/guesses/uneducated guesses on the dates for:
When Pier F reopens
When all JFK nonstop flights resume
When masks won’t be required onboard anymore
When new F appears
I know this is all contingent upon how covid goes and if a vaccine is found but can’t help but be curious as I rebook my 2020 travels for 2021.
Also, one other flight service Qs to refresh my memory...
JFK-HK departing at 1A on 9/1...does it have the September catering and wine or the August one because it left HK (with wine for the return, I think) on 8/31?
When Pier F reopens
When all JFK nonstop flights resume
When masks won’t be required onboard anymore
When new F appears
I know this is all contingent upon how covid goes and if a vaccine is found but can’t help but be curious as I rebook my 2020 travels for 2021.
Also, one other flight service Qs to refresh my memory...
JFK-HK departing at 1A on 9/1...does it have the September catering and wine or the August one because it left HK (with wine for the return, I think) on 8/31?
May 18, 2020 | 4:55 am
#4
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Anywhere
Posts: 7,063
May 18, 2020 | 7:05 am
#9
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AVP & PEK
Programs: UA 1K 2MM
Posts: 7,847
May 18, 2020 | 8:50 am
#12
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Earth. Residency:HKG formerly:YYZ
Programs: CX, DL, Nexus/GE, APEC
Posts: 11,078
May 18, 2020 | 9:06 am
#13
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 150
What was "normal" in 2019 / early 2020 will never be normal again.
Health checks at airports may remain in place for many years or permanently.
Something similar to the yellow fever vaccination and card my be needed for COVID
Aircraft loads will take may years to build back up to the levels of early 2020.
Businesses have learnt that meetings do not have to be held face to face - this means the demand for business travel will not quickly recover. As a consequence airlines will have excess capacity. the airlines have two options
decrease supply - fly less often often with smaller more economical planes
increase demand - Make their airline the one people chose (better bus class product, better FF schemes etc)
I don't think this will happen, but remember the peak of FF schemes and bus class product was when airlines had excess capacity and wanted to fill seats. These have both been reduced as carries fly with high loads.
More airlines and hotel chains will go bankrupt before the COVID situation recovers
This could mean mergers or even just the outright closure of these businesses.
Governments will go into massive debt trying to support their failing economies.
When the COVID situation is over, COVID recovery taxes will be introduced to cover this debt.
I don't think the airline and travel industry will ever be what is was before.
There will be no recovery of the airline industry if there is no vaccine and borders are not reopened.
But that's enough optimism for one day
Health checks at airports may remain in place for many years or permanently.
Something similar to the yellow fever vaccination and card my be needed for COVID
Aircraft loads will take may years to build back up to the levels of early 2020.
Businesses have learnt that meetings do not have to be held face to face - this means the demand for business travel will not quickly recover. As a consequence airlines will have excess capacity. the airlines have two options
decrease supply - fly less often often with smaller more economical planes
increase demand - Make their airline the one people chose (better bus class product, better FF schemes etc)
I don't think this will happen, but remember the peak of FF schemes and bus class product was when airlines had excess capacity and wanted to fill seats. These have both been reduced as carries fly with high loads.
More airlines and hotel chains will go bankrupt before the COVID situation recovers
This could mean mergers or even just the outright closure of these businesses.
Governments will go into massive debt trying to support their failing economies.
When the COVID situation is over, COVID recovery taxes will be introduced to cover this debt.
I don't think the airline and travel industry will ever be what is was before.
There will be no recovery of the airline industry if there is no vaccine and borders are not reopened.
But that's enough optimism for one day
May 18, 2020 | 12:10 pm
#14
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 21,268
May 18, 2020 | 12:19 pm
#15
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Programs: AA EXP 3 MM; Marriott Bonvoy Lifetime Titanium Elite
Posts: 18,588
To put it another way, air travel does not return to normal until the economy shows signs of recovery. The economy won't show signs of recovery until there is a vaccine or widespread immunity.
It is all inter-dependent.