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Third runway at Hong Kong International Airport ‘going to be needed’ - Cathay Pacific

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Old Jul 6, 2011, 4:55 am
  #121  
 
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HK Government (aka the indecisive U-Turn boys) uses flawed information from sub par employees to accurately cost any major project whilst blowing the people's money to greedy developers and before any variation claims even exist.
HK Government estimates are frequently massively wrong - apply this fact to their airport 3rd and (now) 4th runway calculations.

The fact remains - there is no available current PRD takeoff and landing capacity and getting that released from competitor airports and the Chinese military to make UK owned CX more profitable on Chinese soil is pie in the sky. (that is if they even get past the EIA report stage)

www.scmp.com
East Asian Games costs 'grossly underestimated'
Lai Ying-kit 2:12pm, Jul 06, 2011
The Legislative Council’s Public Accounts Committee on Wednesday criticised the government for grossly underestimating the cost of hosting the 2009 East Asian Games.
In a report tabled to Legco, the committee said it was “inexcusable” that the Home Affairs Bureau had failed to prepare accurate estimates of the cost of the games when seeking funding.
..................... some expenditure items differed significantly from amounts estimated by the government in a document it submitted to the Legco Finance Committee in January 2006. .For example........the actual cost of the opening and closing ceremonies were 81 per cent higher than the original estimates.
The cost of work on temporary sporting venues was HK$48.2 million – about six times more than the estimated cost of HK$6.2 million.
“The accuracy of expenditure estimates prepared by the Home Affairs Bureau was far from acceptable. This committee thinks this is appalling and the authorities should take responsibility,” Wong said.
The report also said the Home Affairs Bureau had not taken any initiatives to inform the Finance Committee or the Panel on Home Affairs of the large variations in income and expenditure estimates after obtaining funding approval in 2006.
..............follows an Audit Commission report in April, which said the government had underestimated the expenditure – which came to HK$291 million – by 21.3 per cent.
Ministers in charge of organising the games, including Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, were also called to discuss the cost of the games before the committee
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Old Jul 6, 2011, 4:57 am
  #122  
 
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I don't like the idea of dual airport system either. However if the third runway can only give capacity growth for another 10 years it would be a worry.

Maybe the only other option is to build a brand new airport half way between Hong Kong and Macau and connect with the Hong Kong - Macau - Zhuhai - Shenzhen bridge/rail system to service all 4 regions. Of course it would cost like 1 trillion HKD ......
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Old Jul 6, 2011, 7:17 pm
  #123  
 
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www.scmp.com
Air cargo continues to slide for third month Fall in imports, mainly from quake-hit Japan and the mainland, drives down first-half figures Anita Lam Jul 07, 2011
Air cargo processed by Hong Kong airport's largest cargo handler dropped for a third month in June, bringing down the first half's cargo throughput by 4.7 per cent to 1.33 million tonnes. Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals handled just 220,726 tonnes of air cargo last month, a year-on-year drop of 10.3 per cent, compared with a drop of 12 per cent in May and 9.3 per cent in April.
Most of the drop came from imports, with June recording a year-on- year decline of 16 per cent, accentuating a generally slack second quarter.
Hactl blamed the slower imports on Japan and the mainland, especially the former as March's earthquake and tsunami cut the import volume to the city by more than a fifth in the first six months of the year. Imports from the mainland dropped by 6.3 per cent during the same period.
"Domestic demand from the mainland has surged since the beginning of the year," Hactl executive director Lilian Chan said. "That might have something to do with the drop in imports from the mainland." Local importers may have started procuring more from the Middle East as imports from that region registered a strong growth of 23.8 per cent in the six months to June. Hactl chief executive Mark Whitehead had earlier said the company was counting on a rebound in cargo volumes in the second half of the year, when new smartphone models such as Apple's iPhone 5 are expected to hit the market.
Export volume in June was 12.2 per cent lower year on year and down 7.6 per cent in the first six months........... The decline was driven mainly by a fall in cargo volume to Japan, Europe and the US.............

meanwhile, Air China and other Mainland airlines will require more airspace
www.scmp.com
Air China aims high with plans to boost fleet size The world's most profitable carrier has global ambitions and it wants to increase its number of wide-bodied aircraft from 40 to 100 by 2015 Daniel Ren in Shanghai Jul 07, 2011 Air China .... announcements, news) plans to more than double its fleet of wide-bodied aircraft in five years, reinforcing its ambition to become one of the world's top carriers, according to He Li, the company's vice-president. The mainland's flagship carrier, the world's most profitable airline and the one with the biggest market value, expects to own 100 wide-bodied planes by 2015, compared with more than 40 now.
Air China became the world's most profitable carrier when it reported net profit of 12 billion yuan (HK$14.44 billion) for last year, narrowly beating strategic partner Cathay Pacific Airways........... which earned HK$14.05 billion. The rising affluence of mainlanders benefited mainland airlines, which took a lion's share of the domestic market amid the increasing demand for business and leisure travel. Domestic services accounted for about 60 per cent of Air China's business.
He said Air China, the biggest carrier among the mainland's Big Three, was adamant about going global. The company expects its revenue to reach 140 billion yuan in 2016, up from 82.49 billion yuan last year. The Beijing-based company also plans to expand its fleet from the current 400 planes to 700 in 2015. .................Mainland airlines are facing competition from high-speed railways after the Beijing-Shanghai bullet train began services on June 30.
He admitted that competition from the high-speed trains would affect airline profitability on the most lucrative routes. ..... country's gross domestic product expanded 10.3 per cent last year, making it the world's fastest-growing major economy. Analysts predicted the revenue of the country's major airlines could beat that growth rate in the next five years. Air China received approval to set up an airline in Dalian, Liaoning province, recently as part of its efforts to boost its domestic businesses. It spent 800 million yuan to take an 80 per cent stake in the new carrier while the Dalian government owns the remaining 20 per cent share......... the Dalian subsidiary would begin operations this year.
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Old Jul 6, 2011, 8:00 pm
  #124  
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if anyone still trust the HK gov't, here's a link on the Transport and Housing Bureau saying they've had mutual consent with their counterparts in china and macau in increasing flights. http://news.mingpao.com/20110707/gwb1.htm
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Old Jul 6, 2011, 8:16 pm
  #125  
 
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Originally Posted by kaka
if anyone still trust the HK gov't, here's a link on the Transport and Housing Bureau saying they've had mutual consent with their counterparts in china and macau in increasing flights. http://news.mingpao.com/20110707/gwb1.htm
here is a rough translation of above:
That there is a consensus and the National Bureau of Air Hong Kong flights allowed by the future

[Ming Pao] AA previously released "the Hong Kong International Airport Master Plan 2030" in which a program is to build the third runway, and that the actual maximum per year after completion of flight movements at about 62 million. However, the Legislative Council Members pointed out that the surrounding areas such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen is expanding airport facilities, but no further open Mainland airspace is available , fearing failure to make full use of the runway. Transport and Housing Bureau stressed that there was a consensus with the National Civil Aviation Authority which has agreed to take care of our future demand for additional flights.
Legislative Councillor Alan expressed concern, if the Mainland does not relax the current restrictions on civil aircraft of airspace, together with the policy of cross-strait direct flights are expected to fully implement in the near future, the Hong Kong airport's capacity will be affected aircraft movements, but may not reach the levels anticipated in the planning brief.
However, the Acting Secretary for Transport and Housing Yau Shing-mu Said that since 2004 the Hong Kong Civil Aviation Department and the National Civil Aviation Authority of Macao Civil Aviation Authority formed a working group, to reach a consensus on the Pearl River Delta airspace optimization, we have common interests, and even Guangzhou, Shenzhen and expansion of the airport, but also to the national Civil Aviation Authority discussions, the State Civil Aviation Authority also undertook to take care of additional flights to Hong Kong's future needs. The existing two runways will be saturated in 2020
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Old Jul 6, 2011, 8:19 pm
  #126  
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Originally Posted by Cathay Boy
The fact of the matter is nobody likes to check out luggage and endure another line of re-check-in again.
This is my biggest beef with HND-->NRT, SEL-->ICN, PVG-->SHA, etc. Both JL and NH are fond of selling HND/NRT connections these days, but they often forget to mention that "you're on your own". But, it doesn't have to be this way, especially in cases of, yet to be built, infrastructure.
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Old Jul 6, 2011, 8:41 pm
  #127  
 
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Originally Posted by moondog
This is my biggest beef with HND-->NRT, SEL-->ICN, PVG-->SHA, etc. Both JL and NH are fond of selling HND/NRT connections these days, but they often forget to mention that "you're on your own". But, it doesn't have to be this way, especially in cases of, yet to be built, infrastructure.
recent reports shown above in this thread from a journalist and from the former director of Civil Aviation both favour a third runway at a new airport in the new Territories, (god knows where - Tuen Mun on Lau Wong Fat's land ?). Given HK's got the best transport systems in the world this seems no disadvatage and a better option which is not even considered in the AAHK's 2030 plan. Why not we must ask if this was a thorough study ? For the cost of dredging and treating the toxic mud and reclamation we could have our nice new runway elsewhere.
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Old Jul 6, 2011, 8:48 pm
  #128  
 
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Legco members have a point: they are ignoring the growth of our neighbouring airports : see what the world's major courier companies are doing -

Bao an's new runway and 2nd terminal are already under construction and should be ready to open in 2012.
http://www.cdeclips.com/en/business/....html?id=39351
UPS opens Asia-Pacific hub at Shenzhen's Bao'an airport Published: Feb 10 2010 9:12
UPS launched its inaugural flight at Shenzhen's Bao'an International Airport yesterday, marking the opening of its new intra-Asia hub, replacing operations at the former Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines. The new UPS Asia-Pacific hub cost an estimated $180 million and its 400 staff will be capable of sorting 18,000 packages an hour, according to UPS. The hub will provide overnight delivery services between Asia-Pacific countries. China, Japan and South Korea now account for more than half of the company's total intra-Asia volume .................... added that existing operations at Clark would be refocused to serve as the main import and export gateway for the Philippines.
According to Loi, China-to-Europe volume grew by more than 15 percent, while intra-Asia volumes increased by more than 5 percent. "Of course the Chinese market has always been a top priority for UPS and with the official opening of our Asia-Pacific hub we are the only logistics and supply chain solutions provider with two hubs in China
In February 2009, FedEx opened a $150-million Asia-Pacific hub in Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport. Its main Asian hub was also previously based in the Philippines.
Prior to that, UPS opened an international air hub in Shanghai in December 2008 with a total investment of $125 million. DHL has also announced plans to spend $175 million to build its north Asian hub in Shanghai, with the facility to be completed in the second half of 2010.

meanwhile
http://postandparcel.info/40194/news...rcraft-in-asia June 22nd, 2011
DHL has invested EUR 100m by adding three Boeing 747-400 Converted Freighters (BCFs) to its air network in Asia, in its latest move to bolster its portfolio across the region.
In a joint venture between Cathay Pacific and DHL, the three aircraft will be operated by Air Hong Kong. With a payload of 100 tonnes each aircraft will service three high capacity routes six days a week: Tokyo-Hong Kong, Singapore-Hong Kong, and Shanghai-Hong Kong.
A DHL spokesperson said: “Currently, two A300-600 General Freighters (GFs) each with a 45-tonne payload, ply direct routes between Tokyo-Hong Kong and Shanghai-Hong Kong. By September 2011, these two A300-600GFs will be redeployed to service five weekly services between Beijing-Hong Kong and Manila-Hong Kong, replacing two 24-tonne B727-200Fs planes which will be retired.” The latest investment comes as DHL looks to exploit the rapidly growing parcels market across Asia.
The company also revealed last month that it is building a North Asia Hub at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, due to be completed in early 2012. Furthermore, Post&Parcel reported earlier this week that DHL had thrown its weight behind the bid to build a third runway at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA), stating the development is “crucial to meeting the territory’s future need for cargo capacity and stay economically competitive

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guangzh...tional_Airport
Guangzhou New Baiyun airport (operates 24 hours)
Future developmentIn August 2008, the airport's new expansion plan got approved by the National Development and Reform Commission of China.[1][2] According to the expansion project, the airport will build a third runway located 400 metres east of the existing east runway. The new runway will be 3800 metres long and 60 metres wide. Other facilities of the expansion plan include a 531,000-square-metre Terminal 2, a new indoor car park and an outdoor car park, a transportation centre and a metro station which will serve Terminal 2. The total cost of the project will be ¥14.036 billion. Construction of the third runway is estimated to start in 2011 and finish in the first half of 2013. When the whole project is finished by the end of 2015, the airport will be able to handle 75 million passengers and more than 2.17 million tonnes of cargo a year.
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Old Jul 6, 2011, 9:07 pm
  #129  
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Originally Posted by Marco Polo
Legco members have a point: they are ignoring the growth of our neighbouring airports : see what the world's major courier companies are doing -
At least you guys still have HK Post.
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Old Jul 6, 2011, 9:45 pm
  #130  
 
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Originally Posted by moondog
At least you guys still have HK Post.
damn right - along with the transportation in this city they are excellent.
They even frank all incoming airmail letters as well so you know when they actually received them and their EMS Speedpost system is excellent.
Whereas I sent a small package to a partner in Holland which departed the same day as posted and it took the Dutch post 11 days to deliver it in Amsterdam.
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Old Jul 7, 2011, 7:08 am
  #131  
 
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The 3rd runway is definitely a must as the need for landing at HKG is growing a lot.
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Old Jul 7, 2011, 7:56 am
  #132  
 
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Originally Posted by derek2010
The 3rd runway is definitely a must as the need for landing at HKG is growing a lot.
Well it is best to direct your opinion to the AAHK by filling out the questionnaire they are asking everyone to participate. I'm sure many of us here agree that the third runway is a must and need to address the majority opinions to the people who oppose the project
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Old Jul 8, 2011, 12:31 am
  #133  
 
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LCQ4: Hong Kong International Airport Master Plan 2030
http://7thspace.com/headlines/388449...plan_2030.html

Hong Kong (HKSAR) - Following is a question by the Hon Alan Leong Kah-kit and a reply by the Acting Secretary for Transport and Housing, Mr Yau Shing-mu, at the Legislative Council meeting today (July 6):

Question:

It is projected in the "Hong Kong International Airport Master Plan 2030" (the Master Plan) that if a third runway is constructed, the practical maximum annual runway capacity will be about 620 000 air traffic movements (ATMs). It has been reported that if the Mainland does not relax its prevailing constraints on airspace for civil aviation, which include the restrictions on access tothe airspace within the Pearl River Delta region, coupled with the full implementation of the policy on cross-straits direct flights ("direct flight policy") hopefully in the near future, the runway capacity of the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) will be affected and it may not be able to reach the level as projected in the Master Plan. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council:

(a) on what basis the aforesaid runway capacity has been estimated, and if it includes the impact of whether the airspace of the Mainland is fully open; whether the authorities have reached consensus with the relevant mainland authorities with regard to the opening up of the airspace; if not, of the measures the authorities will take to ensure that the runway capacity will reach the projected level;

(b) whether the authorities have studied the impact of the full implementation of the direct flight policy on HKIA's passenger and cargo throughput; if they have, of the details; if not, the reasons for that; and

(c) given that in the planning outline for HKIA in 1992, it was originally expected that its runway capacity would reach 75 ATMs per hour, but according to the report of the experts from the United Kingdom quoted in the Master Plan, the practical maximum runway capacity of the existing runways in HKIA can at most be increased to 68 ATMs per hour, which falls short of the original projection by seven ATMs, and in reply to a question raised by a Member of this Council in 2010, the authorities also indicated that "the operating environment of HKIA is unique, with high terrains together with a complicated and restrictive airspace surrounding the airport", whether the authorities have considered such factors in estimating the runway capacity of HKIA after constructing the third runway; if they have, of the details; if not, the reasons for that?

Reply:

President,

(a) During the Hong Kong International Airport Master Plan 2030 (Master Plan 2030) Study, the Airport Authority Hong Kong (AAHK) commissioned National Air Traffic Services (NATS) in the UK as professional expert consultant to carry out airspace and runway capacity analysis.

NATS is an experienced provider of air traffic management services, providing air traffic control services to aircraft flying in UK airspace and over the eastern part of the North Atlantic.

At present, the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) adopts an independent segregated mode of operations, i.e. one runway exclusively for departures and the other exclusively for arrivals. The maximum capacity of each runway is not limited by the other runway.

The practical maximum capacity that can be achieved with two runways will be 68 movements per hour.

Even if the existing segregated mode of operations is changed to a mixed mode of operations (i.e. both departures and approaches can take place on each of the two runways), the practical maximum capacity of the two runways will not be increased. It is because, in accordance with the standards of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and having regard to the terrain constraints surrounding the airport, a consistent approach spacing of eight nautical miles has to be applied to both runways, if the mixed mode of operations is adopted, resulting in an hourly capacity of 34 movements for each runway or a total of 68 hourly movements for both.

According to the Technical Report of AAHK's Master Plan 2030, the projected practical maximum capacity of the three-runway system is about 620 000 movements per annum.The basis of this projection is as follows:

(i) in accordance with the ICAO standards and having regard to other relevant factors (including the terrain, airspace, traffic mix, weather, etc.), AAHK's consultant recommends that the best arrangement and handling capacity of a three-runway system is as follows: the third runway recommended for arrivals, with a the capacity at 33 movements per hour; the second runway recommended for departures (i.e.

the existing north runway) at 35 movements per hour; and the first runway recommended for mixed mode (i.e. the existing south runway) at 34 movements per hour, totalling 102 movements per hour;

(ii) on the basis of 102 movements per hour, AAHK's consultant estimates the practical maximum movements to be about 1 800 per day. This is based on the historical flight movement pattern of a typical busy day, having regard to a number of factors, including the runway closure at night for routine maintenance; the matching of slot availability at the Hong Kong International Airport and destination airports; typical hourly fluctuations of a busy day; and the provision for recovery periods to cater for operational delays;

(iii) the practical maximum movements of about 620 000 per annum can be derived on the basis of the daily practical maximum movements of 1 800 and having regard to the historical seasonal adjustments in flight movements (with reference to the flight schedules published by airlines twice a year for the summer and winter seasons).

The Civil Aviation Department has been discussing with the Civil Aviation Administration of China and the Macao Civil Aviation Authority to enhance the Pearl River Delta (PRD) airspace.

The tripartite working group has reached consensus on the target and measures relating to the planning of the optimisation of the PRD airspace structure by 2020. The three sides have agreed to adopt the principles of joint airspace planning, use of common standards and harmonised flight procedure design. To enhance airspace planning and air traffic management in the region, the three sides have agreed to jointly pursue comprehensive airspace regime interface procedures and standards, which cover measures to rationalise airspace design, enhance flight levels allocation, standardise interface and protocols of air traffic control systems, and establish additional civil aviation routes for flights to and from the northern part of the Mainland.

To achieve the targets, the three sides have begun to progressively enhance the air traffic management operations and rationalise the PRD airspace management, air traffic control and flight procedures.

Through the concerted efforts of the three sides, an additional handover point and a corresponding air route have been established between the Guangzhou and Hong Kong Flight Information Regions since end 2006 to cater for flights overflying Hong Kong and landing in Guangzhou. The assessment relating to the airspace adjustment proposals of the Zhuhai Terminal Area was completed in 2010 and the proposals were implemented in April this year. Apart from addressing the forecast air traffic movements in the PRD, the relevant enhancement measures have adequately taken into account the three-runway operating mode at HKIA and provided sufficient airspace for the practical maximum capacity of about 620 000 movements per annum, as envisaged in the three-runway system in the Master Plan 2030.

(b) The Mainland and Taiwan signed the Cross-Strait Air Transport Agreement in November 2008, formally establishing weekday charter flights.

The Agreement has since been expanded several times, establishing scheduled flights and gradually increasing frequencies and the number of points served. The Government has been paying attention to the development of Three Direct Links between the Mainland and Taiwan, in order to assess its impact on Hong Kong and to seize opportunities arising from the new circumstances. Our assessment at the time was that the number of passengers transferring via HKIA between the Mainland and Taiwan would be affected to a larger extent.

The cargo that originally went via Hong Kong between the Mainland and Taiwan would also be affected to a larger extent because such cargo was only transhipment at HKIA without involving other logistics processes in Hong Kong.

At present, cross-strait direct flights cover most of the major points on the Mainland. Before the commencement of the cross-strait direct flights, the passengers and cargo between Hong Kong and Taiwan in 2007 represented 18% and 13% of HKIA's total throughput respectively. In 2010 (last year), the passengers and cargo between Hong Kong and Taiwan increased by 4.1% and 14.2% respectively, compared with 2009, while last year the Hong Kong-Taiwan passenger and cargo traffic represented 15% and 11% of HKIA's total throughput respectively.

The air traffic demand forecast of the Master Plan 2030 adopts a GDP regression based forecasting model.

After assessing various market change factors (including the cross-strait direct flights), AAHK's consultant has adjusted the regression-based traffic forecast for 2030.

The increasingly frequent economic activities between the Mainland and Taiwan help to stimulate new demand for air travel, and the above-mentioned short term negative impact on the passenger and cargo volume has been mitigated. The Mainland's relaxation on individuals' travel to Taiwan and the increase in cross-strait tourism and trade activities are expected to stimulate further growth in the passenger and cargo market between Hong Kong and Taiwan.

(c) The claim about some 70 movements per hour is an ideal number assuming no terrain constraints on operations. In the 1992 New Airport Master Plan, the practical maximum capacity of the two runways in the independent segregated mode was 52 movements per hour while the practical maximum capacity of the two runways in the dependent mixed mode was 69 movements per hour.

However, as HKIA is subject to the actual nearby terrain constraints, the hourly 68 movements per hour at HKIA is the practical maximum capacity of the existing two runways.

AAHK's consultant also confirms that in both the independent segregated mode and dependent mixed mode of operation, the practical maximum capacity of the two runways is 68 movements per hour.

When assessing the practical maximum runway capacity of the three-runway system, AAHK's consultant has, in accordance with the ICAO standards, comprehensively analysed the terrain surrounding HKIA, navigation equipment and airspace.


Source: HKSAR Government
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Old Jul 9, 2011, 12:54 am
  #134  
 
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Originally Posted by moondog
This is my biggest beef with HND-->NRT, SEL-->ICN, PVG-->SHA, etc. Both JL and NH are fond of selling HND/NRT connections these days, but they often forget to mention that "you're on your own". But, it doesn't have to be this way, especially in cases of, yet to be built, infrastructure.
I'm not sure about the other two but for ICN-GMP if you're flying the same airline (KE or OZ that is) they'll check your bags through. Not sure if that works for OZ/*A or KE/SkyTeam.
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Old Jul 9, 2011, 11:30 am
  #135  
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Originally Posted by stupidhead
I'm not sure about the other two but for ICN-GMP if you're flying the same airline (KE or OZ that is) they'll check your bags through. Not sure if that works for OZ/*A or KE/SkyTeam.
im sorry but how does that work? my luggage and i will separately make our own way to the airport? how likely will i not meet my luggage on teh other end?
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