traveldreams11

I have insufficient funds and am saving money for trips to places like Australia. If I was to buy a ticket in let’s say 3 years what do you think chances are they’ll be similar to what I see in let’s say cheapoair? If I was to estimate I’d multiply the current price by 1.025. Please reply to this too but I fear if people find good deals for a certain time of year I fear the prices for that time will cause it to soar. An example would be like 1.5% more next year than this year. Which is ridiculous considering lower prices may mean more buyers and business. What is the likelihood of the latter? That’s a concern I have too.

obscure2k

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Obscure2k
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Romelle

Interesting questions.

I'm not in any way an expert, but have come to understand there are some regular waves for airfare. Time of year, with higher during good weather, school vacations, holidays, events, etc. Higher during business travel days. Time of day. Etc., Etc. These are sort of predictable. Both for your origin and for destinations.

With a tight budget, one can work at finding ways to avoid the high points of the above. "Shoulder seasons" like spring and fall when weather still good but kiddies back in school. Weekends and mid-week for avoiding business travel. Being willing to take the painful 4am flight, or the "red-eye" overnight. Just plain staying away from holiday and event travel times. I know perfectly well the airlines in my origin (MSP) know the exact vacations of all the local schools and the fares are higher most anywhere nice from here for those dates. I don't travel then if it can be avoided.

Then there are a whole different set of "cross currents" to the above. Price of fuel, political events, inflation, natural disasters, too many or few new planes, etc. For these one has to just face them. Go someplace else on travel list, wait, ??

Airlines adjust rates even minute by minute to fill those planes.

For your suggested 3 year frame, the odds are pretty slim you'll find a fare within the 2.5% range of today you mention. For starters, average annual inflation in the US over the long term is something like 3% a year. Then the above "waves" kick in.

I think your long term plan for travel should be to set up that kitty today. Pick a date out in the future (your 3 years down the road) when you know have travel time available. Make up a list of exciting possibilities, including both near and far. Then start filling that kitty as best you can, while still enjoying other things in life. When the date gets closer - say 6 months, you'll have a better idea of how much $ you might have in that kitty.

Airfare is only part of the equation. Lodging and food are two other big ones. Length of trip, recreation choices like entrance tickets, clothing, etc.

But at the 6 month point you can start actually figuring out a specific trip. LOTS of research. You can see what airfare might be out there. Trim your sails to fit that budget.

For the record, this discussion won't change more general airfares a bit. The really hot short term sales sometimes posted here can make tickets sell out quickly, but this is nothing like that. Both people and airlines have a pretty good understanding of the broad general patterns. Airlines price accordingly, and people know to seek those lower points when their plans permit.

If the kitty really didn't get filled well, forget that plane ride for this 3-year interval and do something exotic locally. Right in my immediate area are restaurants, museums, cultural centers from most countries in the world. Nearby are small town festivals of Irish dance and food, German breweries, and many other actually fairly authentic experiences. I know a casino in Las Vegas that, while it smells better, will do a pretty good job of convincing you you are in Venice.

Maybe right now research the airfares for the different times of year to there (sounds like you already have). Find those "shoulder seasons". Plot out a dream trip, including $ for the rest of it. Travel planning can be a great part of the fun.

An Australian junket could really inspire one to save. Go for it!

LondonElite

I'm not sure I fully understand you question, but you need to keep two things in mind:

1. You can only buy tickets for today to 11/12 months in the future (some airlines sell 330 days, some up to 355), so you couldn't buy a ticket today for three years from now.
2. Nobody has a crystal ball. Oil prices might go up or down, capacity might go up or down, exogenous events may cause pricing changes. Australia is most expensive during their summer, generally.

ft101

You don't mention where you'd be flying from - that would be a good start. Some of my flights from the UK have come down in cost over the last few years but that's not to say the same will happen in the next few.