OT: Rugby World Cup - go you good thing!
Nov 19, 2003, 11:02 am
#31
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: washington dc
Posts: 73
It's interesting to note which team was just voted team of the year (for the 2nd year in a row) by the International Players' Association.
And next time the ABs play the Wallabies, I wouldn't like to be in that dirty b*stard George Smith's shoes....he might find someone giving him the Buck Shelford treatment.
And next time the ABs play the Wallabies, I wouldn't like to be in that dirty b*stard George Smith's shoes....he might find someone giving him the Buck Shelford treatment.
Nov 19, 2003, 2:27 pm
#33
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 516
A man walks into a bar with a dachshund. The dog is wearing a England rugby jersey and is festooned with England pom-poms.
The bartender:"Hey! No pets allowed! You'll have to leave."
The guy begs: "I'm desperate! We're both big fans, the TV's broken at home, and this is the only place where we can see the game."
The bartender relents and lets them stay and watch the game. The Poms receive the kick-off, march down field, get stopped at the 22, and Wilkinson kicks a penalty goal. The dog jumps on the bar and walks up and down giving high-fives to everyone.
The bartender: "Wow, that is the most amazing thing I've seen! What does the dog do if they score a try?"
The owner: "I don't know, I've only had him for three years."
------------------
Better living through chemistry.
Nov 20, 2003, 3:35 am
#34
Join Date: Aug 2001
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<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by IainF:
The owner: "I don't know, I've only had him for three years."</font>
The owner: "I don't know, I've only had him for three years."</font>
[This message has been edited by NM (edited Nov 20, 2003).]
Nov 20, 2003, 6:32 pm
#36
Join Date: Aug 2001
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Bumped into Robbie Russell in London today and we had laugh about Saturday's game since he will have mixed loyalties - he was born in Brisbane but his Saracens team-mate Richard Hill will of course be playing for England. Looking closely, the scar under his left eye from the punch thrown by Martin Johnson is still visible. Worth remembering that England's captain on Saturday is lucky to be able to lead his side after that incident.
Still, I'm confident Australia can play dirty, too
[This message has been edited by ajamieson (edited Nov 20, 2003).]
Still, I'm confident Australia can play dirty, too
[This message has been edited by ajamieson (edited Nov 20, 2003).]
Nov 20, 2003, 8:26 pm
#37
Join Date: Sep 2002
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<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ajamieson:
Still, I'm confident Australia can play dirty, too
</font>
Still, I'm confident Australia can play dirty, too
</font>
I thought Scotland played France in the Qs?
Nov 20, 2003, 10:13 pm
#38
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Well, with just over24 hours left before the game, I would expect that the battle lines are drawn between FT'ers on who they are going to back.
Pucci Galore, trust HI arrived safely. Trust you put him on BA (the non-official airline of the RWC)...
ajamieson, good to see you arrived back in Scotland safely and back at work.
Interestingly, Mrs QF WP was born in London but emigrated 20 years ago. She backs the Aussies!
I agree, whilst it would be great to see the Aussies win, what I really want to see is another close match like the QF's were.
Here to a HP (regardless of where you are). That official beer of the RWC is pityful. Give me a real beer anyday...
Pucci Galore, trust HI arrived safely. Trust you put him on BA (the non-official airline of the RWC)...
ajamieson, good to see you arrived back in Scotland safely and back at work.
Interestingly, Mrs QF WP was born in London but emigrated 20 years ago. She backs the Aussies!
I agree, whilst it would be great to see the Aussies win, what I really want to see is another close match like the QF's were.
Here to a HP
(regardless of where you are). That official beer of the RWC is pityful. Give me a real beer anyday...
Nov 20, 2003, 11:07 pm
#39
Join Date: Oct 2001
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I'll be toasting the Wallabies from the only pub in SF showing the game live - Kezar. Starts 1am local time - beer gets turned off at 1:45am. Last week was kind of a blur after the first half....
Nov 20, 2003, 11:22 pm
#40
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Macquarie Research (Equities) put together a beautiful 2-page summation of who will win the RWC. To quote:
RUGBY WORLD CUP - QUANT STYLE
Why the Wallabies will win?
Event
The 5th RWC final will be fought out between Australia and England on Saturday, 22 November. We have developed a quant(itative) model for predicting who will win.
Impact
Our model suggests that Australia will come out ahead. The multi factor model has been developed using similar factors to our stock screening model.
Analysis
The Model is based on the following factors:
~ Revisions (the change in betting odds over the tournament)
~ Momentum (any recent trend of a dominant team)
~ Valuation (the team who has been more successful in the long term)
~ Certainty (consistency of performance)
~ Consensus recommendation (current view on who will win)
~ Rugby specific events (home field advantage, weather forecasts).
Explanation of individual factors
Valuation
Valuation is typically a longer term signal. Hence, we have defined it here as the team that has won more matches overall.
Australia comes out ahead on this factor, having won 58% of all matches played versus England's 39% (with 3% being drawn matches)
Revisions
To measure this we looked at the change in betting odds as the tournament progressed.
England started the event as clear favourite. However, support has eased off slightly.
Ausrtalia, on the other hand, started off down the pack but has experienced a sharp turn in sentiment.
Thus, we say Australia has experienced "positive betting revisions" and is the winner on this factor.
Momentum
Momentum is a measure of short term strength. Hence, we have defined it as the team that has won more of the most recent matches.
England has won the last four games against Australia. This trend can clearly be seen in the data of Australia's cumulative wins against England in all international matches played since 1909.
Certainty
Here we are measuring the confidence of a consistent performance being delivered.
This is proxied by Australia's two RWC titles (one of which was the 12-6 defeat of England in the 1991 RWC Final), whilst England has won zero.
Consensus recommendation
This is simply where the market sits on the game uotcome and is most easily proxied by the current betting odds on the match.
According to Bloomberg/William Hill, England is still favourite to win.
Home advantage
Historically, Australia has won over 82% of games played at home (this is significant at a 99% confidence level using a binomial test).
This stongly suggests that Australia has a proven host country advantage (although the stands will be awash with English jerseys tht may dampen this affect).
Weather Forecast
Warm conditions (similar to those of SF1) may be a disadvantage to English, who are more acclimatised to cooler rainy conditions (similar to SF2).
Unfortunately, the Bureau of Meteorology doesn't publish weather patterns more than a few days out. However, Friday's forecast is as follows: An area of high pressure below Western Australia is moving East. This suggests that Saturday's weather is likely to be similar, if not warmer, to Friday's warm, sunny conditions.
Pulling the model together
We have added these factors together to determine who comes out ahead overall. Australia comes out on top on five of the seven measures, hence we predict the Aussies to win!
Disclaimers, etc...
Unfortunately, I can't replicate the charts and weather forecast model, as although it is on MacquariE's web site, one needs access via ID and password...
RUGBY WORLD CUP - QUANT STYLE
Why the Wallabies will win?
Event
The 5th RWC final will be fought out between Australia and England on Saturday, 22 November. We have developed a quant(itative) model for predicting who will win.
Impact
Our model suggests that Australia will come out ahead. The multi factor model has been developed using similar factors to our stock screening model.
Analysis
The Model is based on the following factors:
~ Revisions (the change in betting odds over the tournament)
~ Momentum (any recent trend of a dominant team)
~ Valuation (the team who has been more successful in the long term)
~ Certainty (consistency of performance)
~ Consensus recommendation (current view on who will win)
~ Rugby specific events (home field advantage, weather forecasts).
Explanation of individual factors
Valuation
Valuation is typically a longer term signal. Hence, we have defined it here as the team that has won more matches overall.
Australia comes out ahead on this factor, having won 58% of all matches played versus England's 39% (with 3% being drawn matches)
Revisions
To measure this we looked at the change in betting odds as the tournament progressed.
England started the event as clear favourite. However, support has eased off slightly.
Ausrtalia, on the other hand, started off down the pack but has experienced a sharp turn in sentiment.
Thus, we say Australia has experienced "positive betting revisions" and is the winner on this factor.
Momentum
Momentum is a measure of short term strength. Hence, we have defined it as the team that has won more of the most recent matches.
England has won the last four games against Australia. This trend can clearly be seen in the data of Australia's cumulative wins against England in all international matches played since 1909.
Certainty
Here we are measuring the confidence of a consistent performance being delivered.
This is proxied by Australia's two RWC titles (one of which was the 12-6 defeat of England in the 1991 RWC Final), whilst England has won zero.
Consensus recommendation
This is simply where the market sits on the game uotcome and is most easily proxied by the current betting odds on the match.
According to Bloomberg/William Hill, England is still favourite to win.
Home advantage
Historically, Australia has won over 82% of games played at home (this is significant at a 99% confidence level using a binomial test).
This stongly suggests that Australia has a proven host country advantage (although the stands will be awash with English jerseys tht may dampen this affect).
Weather Forecast
Warm conditions (similar to those of SF1) may be a disadvantage to English, who are more acclimatised to cooler rainy conditions (similar to SF2).
Unfortunately, the Bureau of Meteorology doesn't publish weather patterns more than a few days out. However, Friday's forecast is as follows: An area of high pressure below Western Australia is moving East. This suggests that Saturday's weather is likely to be similar, if not warmer, to Friday's warm, sunny conditions.
Pulling the model together
We have added these factors together to determine who comes out ahead overall. Australia comes out on top on five of the seven measures, hence we predict the Aussies to win!
Disclaimers, etc...
Unfortunately, I can't replicate the charts and weather forecast model, as although it is on MacquariE's web site, one needs access via ID and password...
Nov 21, 2003, 12:15 am
#41
Join Date: Aug 2001
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Posts: 9,837
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by QF WP:
Weather Forecast
Warm conditions (similar to those of SF1) may be a disadvantage to English, who are more acclimatised to cooler rainy conditions (similar to SF2).
Unfortunately, the Bureau of Meteorology doesn't publish weather patterns more than a few days out. However, Friday's forecast is as follows: An area of high pressure below Western Australia is moving East. This suggests that Saturday's weather is likely to be similar, if not warmer, to Friday's warm, sunny conditions.
</font>
Weather Forecast
Warm conditions (similar to those of SF1) may be a disadvantage to English, who are more acclimatised to cooler rainy conditions (similar to SF2).
Unfortunately, the Bureau of Meteorology doesn't publish weather patterns more than a few days out. However, Friday's forecast is as follows: An area of high pressure below Western Australia is moving East. This suggests that Saturday's weather is likely to be similar, if not warmer, to Friday's warm, sunny conditions.
</font>
Hmm, perhaps that might just favour the wrong team
. At least if the Ausies do lose we will have an excuse - the weather! Its always handy to have a good excuse up your sleve just in case .
Nov 21, 2003, 2:53 am
#42
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: BNE, Australia...not too far from the nearest Qantas Pub err Club
Posts: 3,636
Here I am, in the Kingdom of UK, after our carrier pilot dumped BA26 on the piano keys and caught the 3 wire. (ScottC just making sure your favourite airline gets a mention 
)
The conditions greeting me: light rain and mist. Ahh - welcome to England.
Ideal conditions to enjoy the camaraderie that all Rugby fans, both pommie and aussie, will have tomorrow morning watching the final. Everyone I've spoken here to is looking forward to a great game.
Finally, another plug for WT+ - especially on the 13 hour HKG-LHR flight with a 1 year old and a 3 year old. Worth every $ or £.
) The conditions greeting me: light rain and mist. Ahh - welcome to England.
Ideal conditions to enjoy the camaraderie that all Rugby fans, both pommie and aussie, will have tomorrow morning watching the final. Everyone I've spoken here to is looking forward to a great game.
Finally, another plug for WT+ - especially on the 13 hour HKG-LHR flight with a 1 year old and a 3 year old. Worth every $ or £.
Nov 21, 2003, 8:59 am
#43
Join Date: Sep 2002
Programs: Mucci Gold Class
Posts: 2,045
I like the analysis QF WP . I'd love to see what their model does if you rework it using only data since 1995. I think England's presence in the final has more to do with the advent of professionalism in the North than any sort of once-in-a-generation greatness of the players/coach (and FWIW I think Woodward is getting more credit than he deserves). That's why I'm confidently predicting that whatever happens tomorrow, England will be in the final again in 4 years time. And I have been predicting England entering this final as favourites since 1997.
As for allegiances: well, I enjoy the bashing but with an Aussie wife, Aussie parents, lots of Aussie mates etc etc... Overall I want England to win because they haven't, ever. But I guess my support is more 60-40 than 100-0.
. I'd love to see what their model does if you rework it using only data since 1995. I think England's presence in the final has more to do with the advent of professionalism in the North than any sort of once-in-a-generation greatness of the players/coach (and FWIW I think Woodward is getting more credit than he deserves). That's why I'm confidently predicting that whatever happens tomorrow, England will be in the final again in 4 years time. And I have been predicting England entering this final as favourites since 1997.As for allegiances: well, I enjoy the bashing but with an Aussie wife, Aussie parents, lots of Aussie mates etc etc... Overall I want England to win because they haven't, ever. But I guess my support is more 60-40 than 100-0.
Nov 21, 2003, 9:05 am
#44
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: London. Edinburgh, Cornwall
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<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">posted by whmere: I thought Scotland played France in the Qs?</font>
Robbie got his injury last year in a Saracens v Leicester game. I was working for Sarries in the players' area sorting kit bags and the team doctor said he had never seen anyone left in such a bad way by another player. Robbie was very shaken up - and he doesn't exactly frighten easily. I'll remember that moment when Martin Johnson lifts 'Bill' tomorrow morning...
Nov 21, 2003, 10:21 am
#45
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Aberdeen
Programs: BAEC
Posts: 102
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">the team doctor said he had never seen anyone left in such a bad way by another player.</font>
Remember the way he laughed as he was sent off?