travelswithmybriefcase

A recent post (mostly) and some "Galley FM" (much less, given it's lack of reliability) got me thinking.

The post was the one (now rightly moved as it wasn't really BA related other than a link to using Avios) which highlighted how QR is having to jump through hoops to add additional capacity to MEL due to the Australian Government's refusal to allow extra capacity into "main" ports such as SYD/ MEL / BNE etc.

As someone who divides his time between homes in the UK and Melbourne I am very familiar with this story, as other posters in a similar situation will be.

Essentially for those not familiar with the post QR has had to schedule a flight which is marketed as DOH - ADL (Adelaide) - to which extra capacity IS allowed - which routes DOH - MEL with a very late night arrival in MEL and then a 6h stay on the ground in which passengers for ADL are not allowed to exit the transit area, and spend the time in a virtually closed airport (no Lounge access in the wee small hours of the morning )

It routes ADL - MEL - DOH on the return, albeit it with a shorter "transit" time.

Essentially it is a "ploy" to add extra capacity to MEL without falling foul of the restrictions - Aussies or anyone with a valid ETA for Australia can exit in MEL (especially if they only have hand luggage, and the point of this post is not to into a discussion about short checking luggage etc)

It's more because I wondered whether with the extensive Code Share Agreement between BA and QR to Australia (think it stops short of a full blown JBA?) would allow BA to operate LHR - DOH - MEL, including on the basis of a lot of seats being made available to QR for the DOH - MEL sector (which would of course enable them to capture traffic transiting in DOH after originating right around their network)?

I am pretty sure BA still has traffic rights to MEL (and many other Australian destinations) that it is currently not using ?

(Please correct me if this is not the case).

The above would be a way for QR to increase capacity to MEL, and given the closeness of the relationship between QR and BA I wondered if there might even be some form of "cross subsidy" from QR to BA? (if this still meant the route would be profitable for QR)

I have no idea if there are regulatory limits on what % of capacity can be allocated to a codeshare, or if there is even regulatory oversight to this?

(For example if the Australian authorities would see a "disproportionate" % of the seats available on a BA metal flight between DOH and MEL being given over to QR Code Shares as being against the spirit of the current Qatar / Australia Bi Lateral, or even if they would have visibility to this?)

I probably wouldn't have paid too much attention to this if on my last LHR - SYD flight on BA about 6 weeks ago the (very experienced and excellent) IFL hadn't mentioned to me that the Captain on that flight had said he believed BA would be starting flying to MEL.

I also don't necessarily believe that "Cockpit FM" is any more reliable than "Galley FM"

But the two "strands" did get me thinking and I was keen to see what others might think - in the specific context of QR being obviously keen to increase DOH - MEL capacity to the extent it is currently jumping through absurd hoops to do so.

(I am well aware as to why BA currently only flies to SYD, in terms of aircraft utilisation etc but am asking the question in the specific context of the above where QR might see a way to a "win / win by making it worthwhile for BA to do so. I am under no illusions that an LHR - BKK - MEL or an LHR - KUL - MEL is happening anytime soon)

I obviously have a vested interest given my Aussie base is in Melbourne and getting direct flights in BA metal would be very advantageous.

If that has clouded my judgement please excuse me

But in the context of the specific QR situation outlined above I thought I would see what people thought.

13901

This was rumoured a lot in the past winter. The fact is, BA is short of pilots and planes. A LHR-DOH-MEL/BNE/PER (delete as applicable) will take about 3 frames to do. They're also short of the right planes, if you see what I mean, for such a route.

Dave Noble

The whole premise seems flawed though. People don;t have to just hop off early from their Adelaide booking - QR will sell MEL-DOH-LHR and v/v on the flight anyway. There is seemingly demand for ADL-DOH services since QR also runs a non stop service on that route too

Whether QR was only granted access based on also serving a lesser destination with the service, I don;t know

Also, this hopping off early only really works for passengers that have a one way ticket to Adelaide - those buying a r/t to Adelaide would find their inbound cancelled due to the no show and those trying to hop on in Melbourne with an Adelaide ticket would not be allowed through to board

travelswithmybriefcase

The earlier thread on the QR DOH - MEL - ADL is quite informative on what was / wasn’t possible for MEL passengers, so I won’t go into that aspect.

I can however absolutely confirm that QR was only allowed to put on this flight due to serving a “lesser destination”.

They originally looked at DOH - MEL - Canberra to take advantage of the same “loophole” before alighting on the Adelaide solution, and I think there are a few Aussie / Brit posters who can confirm that.

From memory I think the Qatar / Australian Bi Lateral allows 28 flights / week to SYD/ MEL/ BNE / PER and any extra flights have to have another port as their ultimate destination.

But I do take your point that QR will still sell tickets to MEL on that flight - my thinking was just that the economics of a “tag” to ADL with 6 hours on the ground at MEL and then coming back ADL - MEL - DOH can’t be great.

Incidentally the DOH - ADL flight I think continues to AKL unless things have changed.

travelswithmybriefcase

Yes I do see that, including the lack of the “right” type of plane. Perhaps when (if) things ease in that regard….

One can but hope !

lcylocal

QR have leased frames and crew to BA before, but it does need CAA approval.

SW7London

Can QR code share on BA flights to the main Australian cities if it has no more capacity under the bilateral ? Not sure if the bilateral only applies to operating your own flights or all flights, including codeshares.

Qantas in its recent results again mentioned the direct LHR-PER flight is by far the most profitable on the network, with almost all of pax originating in PER (the flight originates in MEL) and most of the J cabin full of travellers from the mining companies in Perth, all of which would have corporate deals with BA too (BHP, Rio, S32 etc). I wonder if BA has considered this.

travelswithmybriefcase

I’m really not an expert on the bi laterals and would welcome the views of someone who might be.

I think you might be right in so far as I don’t think QR can code share on the BA flights to Sydney (of course the only Australian port that BA currently serves), which might prove your hypothesis.

As Australian based posters can confirm there was quite a “commotion” here when the Australian Government - under pressure from QF according to some media reports here - refused QR’s request for more capacity.

I do also think your point about the PER - LHR flights is a good one - it originally originated in MEL with the same 787 configured with long haul business class operating throughout.

Now QF offers connections to the PER - LHR flight on narrow bodies (mostly) from MEL, which would support your theory about your yield mostly coming from the WA corporate businesses you mention.

oldfolky

I can’t see it myself. The Australia to Europe market workers on a couple of levels. A few key route with high yields in premium cabins where point to point speed is valued and then a massive amount of demand that is a bit more price sensitive. The high yield is paying j fairs AUD12k and higher a lot of the time, the low yield is around AUD 6k. QF and BA focus on the high yield, and whilst the likes of QR and EK get some of this they have lower costs and fill more planes at lower yield. They make money because they have lower costs.

BA planes cost more to run, if BA thought there was money in Melbourne they’d be flying there. It seems unlikely that filling a plane with transfers in Doha would be the best way they could utilise the assets.

Finnair would be a more likely candidate, they are already flying wet leases for QF, but without a JBA, Finnair would have to take the risk of it not working and I’m not sure they are in much of a position to take that kind of a risk.

email2markt

Would a new route cannibalise BA15/16 traffic and put it at risk?
Also, SYD will get the "Project Sunrise" flights in about 18 months, and then there's WSI which won't have overnight runway closures. Opportunities and risks...

Finland Station

Back when BA and QF had a JV, the Australia proposition just about worked for BA. But that is history. Frankly, I think we should all rejoice that we still have SYD on the network.

cauchy

This will upend everything, because every high-yield customer will book the nonstop. Then there's one of three outcomes:

1. BA reijgs its A350s so they too can fly nonstop and attract high yield passengers. The ME3 and Asia-based carriers can't offer nonstop UK <-> AU service, so there's only QF for competition, and margins are protected. This might mean a return to MEL.

2. BA remains one stop, decides to turn a profit based on flyers who, in the context of UK <-> AU flyers, are medium or low yield. Given the constrained supply of flights to/from Australia, this could still be profitable.

3. BA quits AU.

My money is on 2, perhaps followed by 3. But let's hope for 1.

orbitmic

To me the whole notion that BA could step in because that would be useful to QR makes no sense. Ultimately, for a new route to work as a codeshare, it has to be of interest to both the prime carrier and the code sharing one, and I think that opening DOH-MEL/BNE/PER would make exactly zero sense for BA.

QR convinced BA to open flights to DOH from London as it adds capacity for them and BA are happy to have that destination.
QR convinced AY to open flights to DOH from CPH and ARN because AY had spare frames and crew due to the slow recovery in Asia and it makes AY quite happy to be able to steal some customer from SK.

By contrast, BA has no interest in flying DOH-MEL/BNE/PER and already too few frames and crews for its own desired expansion plans. Those are simply not the right routes for BA and BA are simply not the right partner for QR for that.

Finland Station

I don't think that "Project Sunrise" is going to be the game changer that some seem to think.

I'd rather not do LHR-SYD (or vv) without a stop. I certainly wouldn't pay a premium for it.

Then there is the environmental issue, that QF appears to be trying to downplay. No doubt the A350 is a great deal more efficient than the 747s of yesteryear, but this aircraft will be burning a lot of fuel simply to carry the fuel.

Strawb

BA resuming the MEL route which it last operated in 2006 is never going to happen despite the crewmours. It makes no sense for a non-Arab based carrier like BA to operate direct flights via DOH to MEL or even SYD. The current BA15/16 goes via SIN which makes it just about viable. Qantas flight QF1/2 on the Kanagroo route operated via DXB from 2013. It was never going to be a long term success.

Success on the Kangaroo route came with Singapore Airlines. Operating 5x daily departures between SYD/SIN and the same frequency (including seasonal) up to 5x daily MEL/SIN this provided a multitude of connections. How do you compete with that? Qantas can't even provide its own aircraft and crew on this sector (apart from QF1/2) and has wet leased aircraft and crew from Finnair. Same for their BKK route.

I've just redeemed 90K and £188 on Qatar from MEL-DOH-LHR in Business for next February. Good availability in early Feb on both daily rotations on various dates. I opted for the late evening flight which gets me into LHR at lunchtime the following day. Booked via Privilege Club.