navylad

Given the effect on future availability for BA destinations and given the report in today’s telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...T1KSi2bsYIjHcI highlighting a politician in Belgium and environmentalists criticising the EU reintroducing their slot rules at 50% (highlighting the environmental impact of flights with low pax numbers/ghost flights), I was wondering where we are currently at and what people’s predictions are for a return to 80/20 in the U.K.?

To be clear, this is not a pro or anti EU post, so no need for political commentary, just wandering whether we will see more BA destinations return if slot rules are brought back.

IMHO, the U.K. rules will have greatest effect for BA- given the number fo slots at LHR and the extent Euroflyer will be rolled out at speed.

lcylocal

I’d be surprised if 80/20 comes back for the next season. Firstly, the UK government is going to be sensitive to environmental criticism arising from ghost flights. Secondly, Gatwick in particular has been one of the hardest hit airports in Europe by the downturn (hopefully some signs this is changing), thirdly I’ve only really seen WizzAir and Ryanair being vocal about returning slot rules and I wouldn’t regard either as particularly influential with the government. I suspect there will be some voices inside government keen on them returning though.

mikeyfly

Well BA certainly don’t have the flight or cabin crews to operate anywhere near the schedule they did in 2019

Dan72

I presume the EU rules will apply to BA's EU routes. Although I'd have hoped that 50% would be manageable this Summer.

navylad

interesting point, I guess hypothetically that could presumable lead to short ghost flights if they did come back to hold on to the slots.

mikeyfly

Unlikely at the rate (and with short notice) they’ve been cancelling short haul flights, especially those requiring night stops to free up crew

unconfirmedsource

I believe 70:30 is on the cards for this summer

navylad

i guess. But primarily is BA is a money driven organisation and if risk loosing £bns in slots, my guess would be they would cancel a destination and use the available crew to do circuit ghost flights if it kept the slots. Hopefully a more sensible approach to reintroduce slots will be used in any case, so it’s just a theoretical risk.

WRT EU rules, 50% is low enough I think for BA to use with the current demand for the airports where slots are an issue.

lcylocal

I think EU is 50% for this season and 67% for Northern Summer 22?

I’m guessing 67 or 70% for Heathrow and Gatwick would be pretty hard work for BA given the need for some operational flexibility. The summer season starts 11 weeks today.

I believe the EU rules apply to BA at slot constrained airports in the EU, so in reality the bigger cities. Also BA can also presumably use swaps to cover them across IAG.

Akoz

The airports have been pretty vocal about wanting the rule restarted. Each slot a company has that is not used, is a slot that could be used by someone else and thus revenue. Slots that are unused but sat on gets the airport nothing.

Akoz

Thats is probably the reason BA has leased Easyjet a bunch of slots at LGW this summer. Neither of them want to see Wizz or FR get more of a foothold, and given the number of slots EZY have it would not be too difficult to operate at 70% even including the leased slots.

lcylocal

Thanks. Had missed this, interesting development.

navylad

thanks for highlighting, do we know how long BA has leased them for?

Akoz

I read it a month or so ago so can't be too sure, but I think it was only for S22.

ords

You tend to forget, it's two sided so it's not just the UK you need to look at. There's been agreement on S22 slot relief globally between the Industry groups (IATA, ACI, WWACG). How regulators outside the EU will look at this will be interesting.

https://www.iata.org/en/policy/slots/covid-19-slots/