Weather Disruption

Old Aug 9, 19, 12:46 am
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Weather Disruption

Looking at tomorrow’s (quite horrendous) forecast with ‘damaging winds’ should we be expecting some Heathrow disruption? Winds are planned to be South West but not an expert on that impacting runway ops?

Im on the late JFK flight in J but if there is weather disruption I’m hoping to use it to my advantage and switch to an earlier flight
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Old Aug 9, 19, 1:57 am
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There will be likely more spacing between aircrafts, thus leading to delays.

Some information about ATC Ops here:

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/27632906-post52.html
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Old Aug 9, 19, 3:17 am
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BA will only switch you if it helps them out. They won't do it out of the goodness of their hearts - unless you have a flexible ticket that allows it or pay the change fees!
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Old Aug 9, 19, 3:47 am
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Originally Posted by UKtravelbear View Post
BA will only switch you if it helps them out. They won't do it out of the goodness of their hearts - unless you have a flexible ticket that allows it or pay the change fees!
On long haul that is especially true.

When there is weather disruption often BA is now putting up signs in T5 to allow free changes to other flights on the same route on the same day, however this only applies to short haul.

If there need to be pro-active cancellations due to weather for the next day they will be targeted at short haul. Long haul is rarely targeted.
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Old Aug 9, 19, 4:30 am
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The 9.15 arrival from LHR into Leeds had to circle for the best part of an hour. Most of the return plane have missed connections as it arrived late but now 1 person not boarded with 3 bags in the hold.

Warned expecting weather delay into LHR on landing as picking up to be windy from the south west. Pilot said tomorrow is going to be worse.
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Old Aug 9, 19, 4:42 am
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We are now on a 12.55 take off slot from Leeds (it is 11.41) on a 10.00 departure as landings into LHR have now been weather restricted.
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Old Aug 9, 19, 4:43 am
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Forecast for Saturday is for winds of 24kts from the South West, with gusts up to 39kts.
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Old Aug 9, 19, 8:12 am
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Originally Posted by florens View Post
There will be likely more spacing between aircrafts, thus leading to delays.

Some information about ATC Ops here:

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/27632906-post52.html

If the issue is only wind, and it's a significant headwind component as opposed to tailwind, then the spacing between arrivals actually becomes smaller not greater.

Although the aircraft on final approach are flying the same Indicated Airspeed as ever it is the reduced speed of the aircraft over the ground due to the headwind component that then leads to the decrease in the hourly landing rate, albeit Time Based Separation on the final approach and TEAM (landing a set number of arrivals on the departure runway) recovers some but not all of the otherwise lost capacity.
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Old Aug 9, 19, 8:23 am
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No cancellations showing yet, apart from an Iberia Madrid service and BA215 BOS, which I think is a long dated cancellation.
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Old Aug 9, 19, 9:19 am
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There are a few cancellations now: DUS, MXP, CDG, MUC, DUB and maybe more.
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Old Aug 9, 19, 9:37 am
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Flight to NICE today cancelled - adverse weather
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Old Aug 9, 19, 9:49 am
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The trouble is this is not headwind, so TBS won’t help that much. Current metar shows the wind 200/22, a significant crosswind and reduced landing rates as a result. Heathrow schedule maximum landing rates most of the day, any bad weather leads to delay/cancellations.
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Old Aug 9, 19, 9:51 am
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Originally Posted by florens View Post
There are a few cancellations now: DUS, MXP, CDG, MUC, DUB and maybe more.
For today yes, there's also NCE, FRA and TXL, plus JED also cancelled along with PVG.

Nothing cancelled for tomorrow yet.
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Old Aug 9, 19, 10:01 am
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Originally Posted by atcodave View Post
The trouble is this is not headwind, so TBS won’t help that much. Current metar shows the wind 200/22, a significant crosswind and reduced landing rates as a result. Heathrow schedule maximum landing rates most of the day, any bad weather leads to delay/cancellations.
Is this likely to be as bad tomorrow, as from what I see it will be 230° so hopefully not? I already got caught up in the thunderstorms a few weeks ago and am visiting a friend in Helsinki and would rather avoid additional bad luck with flights!
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Old Aug 9, 19, 10:32 am
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Originally Posted by atcodave View Post
The trouble is this is not headwind, so TBS won’t help that much. Current metar shows the wind 200/22, a significant crosswind and reduced landing rates as a result. Heathrow schedule maximum landing rates most of the day, any bad weather leads to delay/cancellations.
It’s not just the surface wind that’s relevant, it is the wind all the way up the final approach. With a ~8kt headwind component at the surface and likely significantly greater headwind at 3,000ft TBS will offer a benefit.

For the controllers the challenge in a strong crosswind at altitude is accuracy in vectoring and merging two streams from different sides of the final approaches, and therefore significantly different ground speeds despite the same indicated air speeds, into a single stream at the required minimum separations.

If the controllers can still vector accurately TBS will offer a landing rate benefit.






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