F cabin full? BA007 15 Dec
Dec 5, 2017, 4:33 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2017
Programs: Eurostar CB, HH D, IHG Spire, Easyjet Fight Club, Ryanair...oh, wait.
Posts: 47
F cabin full? BA007 15 Dec
I will be taking BA007 on the 15th, LHR-HND in F. I just had a look on the seat map and it shows the cabin to be full, with no seat changes available. I know that an IDB or downgrade is unlikely, but how nervous should I be?
Dec 5, 2017, 4:39 am
#2
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Gloucestershire
Programs: BA Gold (ex-GGL, maybe future Silver), Hilton Diamond
Posts: 6,201
BA will only oversell by one.
So: assuming no aircraft changes or cancelled flights, there's a 1/8 chance even in a 789 (less on a 777, 380 or 747) if BOTH the flights are oversold (no idea, but let's say 50%) and everyone turns up on an oversold flight (probably <25%). So being pretty conservative, as a baseline, 1/64. I suspect revenue management is more switched on than that, but I'm deliberately being conservative here.
If you have gold status or above I'd say the odds drop. If you are on a revenue A fare, they drop, and on an F fare they drop again.
If you have bronze or below, and/or on a 2-4-1 then I'd say your odds increase, but not in any way that I would actually expect one.
So: assuming no aircraft changes or cancelled flights, there's a 1/8 chance even in a 789 (less on a 777, 380 or 747) if BOTH the flights are oversold (no idea, but let's say 50%) and everyone turns up on an oversold flight (probably <25%). So being pretty conservative, as a baseline, 1/64. I suspect revenue management is more switched on than that, but I'm deliberately being conservative here.
If you have gold status or above I'd say the odds drop. If you are on a revenue A fare, they drop, and on an F fare they drop again.
If you have bronze or below, and/or on a 2-4-1 then I'd say your odds increase, but not in any way that I would actually expect one.
Last edited by Cymro; Dec 5, 2017 at 4:27 pm
Dec 5, 2017, 5:41 am
#4
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Falkirk, Scotland,VS Red, BA Gold, HH Diamond,UK Amex Plat
Programs: Master of the Privy Purse des Muccis
Posts: 17,916
Hi.
do you have a seat assigned just now?
I had no seat assigned on a b789 to Toronto in august and even at T-24 I olcid to no seat and it took a call from check in to flight control to get a seat
in the ccr prior to the flight a couple had been pages and seemed to be talking to special services
regards
tbs
do you have a seat assigned just now?
I had no seat assigned on a b789 to Toronto in august and even at T-24 I olcid to no seat and it took a call from check in to flight control to get a seat
in the ccr prior to the flight a couple had been pages and seemed to be talking to special services
regards
tbs
Dec 5, 2017, 5:46 am
#5
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2017
Programs: Eurostar CB, HH D, IHG Spire, Easyjet Fight Club, Ryanair...oh, wait.
Posts: 47
We're on 241 with no BA status...so that makes things a touch more interesting :-| We have seats assigned at present. I will set an alarm to make sure we check in promptly.
Dec 5, 2017, 6:21 am
#6
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2014
Location: UK
Programs: BA Gold
Posts: 12,262
Despite what is said around here, I don't think checking in at T24 will make any difference to two blues on a 2-4-1.
If the other seven passengers are on revenue and even Silver or above, you will be the ones with a possible situation. The time you check in will not make a difference
If the other seven passengers are on revenue and even Silver or above, you will be the ones with a possible situation. The time you check in will not make a difference
Dec 5, 2017, 6:25 am
#7
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: London
Programs: Mucci. Nothing else matters.
Posts: 38,644
Dec 12, 2017, 11:01 am
#9
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: London
Programs: Mucci. Nothing else matters.
Posts: 38,644
Dec 12, 2017, 11:07 am
#10
Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club, easyJet and Ryanair
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK/Las Vegas
Programs: BA Gold (GGL/CCR)
Posts: 15,928
Dec 12, 2017, 11:07 am
#11
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2017
Programs: Eurostar CB, HH D, IHG Spire, Easyjet Fight Club, Ryanair...oh, wait.
Posts: 47
and the 16th like this
So it does look a little out of the ordinary to me.
[img][/img]
[img][/img]
Dec 12, 2017, 11:09 am
#12
Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club, easyJet and Ryanair
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK/Las Vegas
Programs: BA Gold (GGL/CCR)
Posts: 15,928
Why is it out of the ordinary? Airlines hope to sell all seats on an aircraft, most of my First flights have a full or virtually full cabin.
Dec 12, 2017, 11:16 am
#13
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: GLA
Programs: BAEC: Silver. Nothing else as TopCashBack trumps all hotel programs
Posts: 801
What actually happens if you are downgraded? Has that ever happened. I can only imagine the compensation is huge if that were to happen. Seems unthinkable.
Dec 12, 2017, 11:23 am
#14
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: BA Gold
Posts: 12,046
Maybe in the sales department, but not in revenue management. About 90% or so is probably revenue maximising and there is always some value in having a few seats available for duty travel, rebate travel, re-protection and re-accommodation. 
Dec 12, 2017, 11:29 am
#15
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: London
Programs: Mucci. Nothing else matters.
Posts: 38,644
The 14th looks like this
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...4d9d15c72f.png
and the 16th like this
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...2cde1f26c7.jpg
So it does look a little out of the ordinary to me.
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...4d9d15c72f.png
and the 16th like this
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...2cde1f26c7.jpg
So it does look a little out of the ordinary to me.