LBA Night Stop
Oct 24, 2017, 2:13 pm
#1
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LBA Night Stop
Hello all
Galley gossip from tonight's 1345 LBA-LHR - apparently as there is such a demand for an earlier service BA considering night stop at LBA for early morning departure.
I am sure a few of the LBA regulars would like this very much
Galley gossip from tonight's 1345 LBA-LHR - apparently as there is such a demand for an earlier service BA considering night stop at LBA for early morning departure.
I am sure a few of the LBA regulars would like this very much
Oct 24, 2017, 2:23 pm
#2
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I think there was some discussion of this possibility in this thread:
LBA morning rotation dropped from Feb '18?
LBA morning rotation dropped from Feb '18?
Oct 24, 2017, 2:26 pm
#3
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I certainly would, but am not holding my breath.
Interesting that the early morning LHR-LBA-LHR rotation has been renumbered as BA1346/47, from the previous BA1340/41 with effect from next week. I don’t know whether that’s some sort of precursor to a schedule change of some sort.
Interesting that the early morning LHR-LBA-LHR rotation has been renumbered as BA1346/47, from the previous BA1340/41 with effect from next week. I don’t know whether that’s some sort of precursor to a schedule change of some sort.
Oct 24, 2017, 2:57 pm
#5
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Thanks our_kid. I am sure no one is surprised I am commenting on this thread 
Coincidentally I have been discussing the possibility over the last few days on another forum. I haven't heard anything recently but I have previously heard such suggestions. Also there have always been rumours when the route started that there was a promise of a nightstopper at some point, but again no idea whether this has any basis.
Another thing to consider is that the airport has just been sold. The previous owners Bridgepoint Capital bought the airport in 2007 from the five local councils, and the airport has now been sold within the last week to AMP Capital. AMP own NCL. Also we now have a new CEO in David Laws appointed in May who previously was CEO at NCL (I imagine cws must know him). In fact there seem to be a number of senior people who have left LBA in the last 6 months and replaced by senior people from NCL. It is not beyond possibility that LBA with it's new owner could share some of the cost of a nightstopper for a set period to determine viability, again this is purely speculation on my part.
The main issue (mentioned in my comments below) is that early arrival slots at LHR are scarce, so even if any of the other stars align I don't know whether BA are willing to move something else to make way for an early arrival from LBA - possibly not I would have thought since it would be a speculative move.
http://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.u...fund-1-8811675
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.u...dford_Airport/
The route is coming up to it's fifth anniversary on 9 December, it may not surprise anyone to know I will be on the first southbound on that day. Last year the airport marked the 4 year anniversary.
http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/...-connectivity/
and since there was free cake on offer I was there like a flash!
I am also coming up to my 200th flight on this route which looks like it will be in January.
Here are the figures - for load I have used the information on thebasource.com for number of flights and I have noted the number of seats I am using for my calculation. Since domestic CE came in from April I have assumed 5 rows of CE which seems reasonable in my experience.
I think LBA want the route to succeed but I must admit I would be surprised if we got a nightstopper at this stage.
If I may reproduce my comments from the other forum here as they are relevant:
Coincidentally I have been discussing the possibility over the last few days on another forum. I haven't heard anything recently but I have previously heard such suggestions. Also there have always been rumours when the route started that there was a promise of a nightstopper at some point, but again no idea whether this has any basis.
Another thing to consider is that the airport has just been sold. The previous owners Bridgepoint Capital bought the airport in 2007 from the five local councils, and the airport has now been sold within the last week to AMP Capital. AMP own NCL. Also we now have a new CEO in David Laws appointed in May who previously was CEO at NCL (I imagine cws must know him). In fact there seem to be a number of senior people who have left LBA in the last 6 months and replaced by senior people from NCL. It is not beyond possibility that LBA with it's new owner could share some of the cost of a nightstopper for a set period to determine viability, again this is purely speculation on my part.
The main issue (mentioned in my comments below) is that early arrival slots at LHR are scarce, so even if any of the other stars align I don't know whether BA are willing to move something else to make way for an early arrival from LBA - possibly not I would have thought since it would be a speculative move.
http://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.u...fund-1-8811675
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.u...dford_Airport/
The route is coming up to it's fifth anniversary on 9 December, it may not surprise anyone to know I will be on the first southbound on that day. Last year the airport marked the 4 year anniversary.
http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/...-connectivity/
and since there was free cake on offer I was there like a flash!
I am also coming up to my 200th flight on this route which looks like it will be in January.
Here are the figures - for load I have used the information on thebasource.com for number of flights and I have noted the number of seats I am using for my calculation. Since domestic CE came in from April I have assumed 5 rows of CE which seems reasonable in my experience.
I think LBA want the route to succeed but I must admit I would be surprised if we got a nightstopper at this stage.
If I may reproduce my comments from the other forum here as they are relevant:
The route has a long way to go to become established based on current numbers. The overall load figure is dragged down by the late southbound which is often somewhere around 40-50% full. This isn't specific to the LBA route - I have been on the last southbound from MAN before and it is similarly lightly loaded - but compared to MAN it represents 1 out of 6 flights a day rather than 1 out of 16.
Despite August being a very good month for passenger numbers and being the second busiest month ever on the route the load factor was probably around 65% (23408 seats available, 15198 sold). Obviously that doesn't tell us what the yield is and we won't know that since it is commercially sensitive, however there are few routes that are profitably sustained these days at 65% load.
The good thing is that passengers numbers keep growing and it looks at the moment like numbers will be up around 5% this year over 2016 so it continues to head in the right direction.
Despite August being a very good month for passenger numbers and being the second busiest month ever on the route the load factor was probably around 65% (23408 seats available, 15198 sold). Obviously that doesn't tell us what the yield is and we won't know that since it is commercially sensitive, however there are few routes that are profitably sustained these days at 65% load.
The good thing is that passengers numbers keep growing and it looks at the moment like numbers will be up around 5% this year over 2016 so it continues to head in the right direction.
Out of all BA domestic routes apparently LBA has the highest proportion of connecting passengers and the lowest proportion of point to point. Some of that is simply because the other Leeds-London point to point options are very competitive on cost and timing (obviously for a route like EDI the plane is much faster than the train overall), some of it is because there is no early southbound and late northbound so day trips are a bit tricky, and some of it is because the transport links to LBA are frankly quite poor.
I think that trying to push the route on point to point over connecting traffic is a really not a good idea for all the reasons I mentioned. Anyone not living to the north side of Leeds is going to find it difficult to justify the trek to LBA over getting the train instead. The location of the airport and competition from the train mean you are fighting a very difficult battle. The more important issue of having a night stopper and therefore a very early southbound would be that you open up connection possibilities for all the morning long haul departures from LHR which are simply not available atm. The earliest departure you could currently connect on to at LHR would be around midday from T5 and more like 12.30pm if connecting to a T2/3/4 flight which misses out quite a lot. I am daft enough to fly down on the night before and incur the extra cost of staying in a hotel near LHR partly because I want to help support the route, but most people are not going to do that.
EDIT: just to add the comparison in terms of distance to London is MAN, but MAN has good transport links with the M60, M56, M62, and M6 all close, a train line with regular services to the city centre and other places, and a tram line. All of this makes the MAN route more viable as a competitor against the train on point to point traffic.
If the loads get regularly to the 80%+ level they may well think about it - however you immediately run in to the other obvious problem that there are no spare early morning arrival slots anyway. If LBA is to get an early morning arrival slot in to LHR then something else need to be moved so LBA has to prove a case to show it would be more profitable then whatever is being moved out. At 60-65% loads which is what we have had through 2017 so far it simply isn't there yet.
EDIT: just to add the comparison in terms of distance to London is MAN, but MAN has good transport links with the M60, M56, M62, and M6 all close, a train line with regular services to the city centre and other places, and a tram line. All of this makes the MAN route more viable as a competitor against the train on point to point traffic.
If the loads get regularly to the 80%+ level they may well think about it - however you immediately run in to the other obvious problem that there are no spare early morning arrival slots anyway. If LBA is to get an early morning arrival slot in to LHR then something else need to be moved so LBA has to prove a case to show it would be more profitable then whatever is being moved out. At 60-65% loads which is what we have had through 2017 so far it simply isn't there yet.
Last edited by KARFA; Oct 24, 2017 at 3:19 pm
Oct 24, 2017, 3:01 pm
#6
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I think 1340/1341 has been used for a 0930 departure from LBA and 1346/1347 for a 0920. You are right that from next week it now seems to be all 1346/1347 for the first rotation of the day, but from April we are back to 1340/1341.
Oct 24, 2017, 4:06 pm
#7
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There has been a BA1346/1347 for a while now as well as the BA1340/1341. Checking my records it seems I was on a BA1346 and 1347 in early 2015.
I think 1340/1341 has been used for a 0930 departure from LBA and 1346/1347 for a 0920. You are right that from next week it now seems to be all 1346/1347 for the first rotation of the day, but from April we are back to 1340/1341.
I think 1340/1341 has been used for a 0930 departure from LBA and 1346/1347 for a 0920. You are right that from next week it now seems to be all 1346/1347 for the first rotation of the day, but from April we are back to 1340/1341.
Oct 24, 2017, 4:47 pm
#9
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1340/41
1342/43
1344/45
Oct 25, 2017, 1:07 am
#11
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Thank you Karfa for your contribution to the thread - really interesting reading.
You are completely right about the LHR arrival slot definitely the elephant in the room
Best thing that could happen to LBA now is some decent public transport into Leeds - if they could get a rail link in place that would be a game changer.
You are completely right about the LHR arrival slot definitely the elephant in the room
Best thing that could happen to LBA now is some decent public transport into Leeds - if they could get a rail link in place that would be a game changer.
Oct 25, 2017, 2:19 am
#12
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But surely BA would be worried about a night stop at Leeds resulting in the aircraft being grounded for days on end due to the frequent windy weather at LBA causing all flights to be grounded? (I know this isn’t true, but might as well perpetrate the myth some more!)
On a more serious note, where would the crew stay on their night stop? Is there a reasonable hotel nearby. I’m not familiar with LBA.
And as Has been pointed out uo thread, LBA appears to be fairly heavy for connecting passengers. An early flight may make this figure increase further. Would it be more profitable than some of the other short routes into LHR early in the morning? I’m sure revman would have looked into this and will be constantly watching the situation.
(I know this isn’t true, but might as well perpetrate the myth some more!)On a more serious note, where would the crew stay on their night stop? Is there a reasonable hotel nearby. I’m not familiar with LBA.
And as Has been pointed out uo thread, LBA appears to be fairly heavy for connecting passengers. An early flight may make this figure increase further. Would it be more profitable than some of the other short routes into LHR early in the morning? I’m sure revman would have looked into this and will be constantly watching the situation.
Oct 25, 2017, 2:32 am
#13
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Oct 25, 2017, 3:24 am
#15
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The transport infrastructure in Leeds is terrible. In any other European city of comparable size they have a direct rail, tram or underground link to airport. Think DUS or VLC.
The main road from the city centre, leading up to the airport has been narrowed to make way for a cycle path that very few people use.
I often drive along this and ponder that in Prague they would have run a tram line up to the airport using this space.
The main road from the city centre, leading up to the airport has been narrowed to make way for a cycle path that very few people use.
I often drive along this and ponder that in Prague they would have run a tram line up to the airport using this space.