badoc

Never seen this before and am now getting a bit worried...

On this flight tomorrow to visit friends and 2 days ago the whole flight was WIDE open (F9,A9,J9,C9,D9,R9,I2,W9,T9,Y9,B9,H9 etc..)

I could have used miles to UG to F but decided against it - but this implies they opened up redemption seats last minute due to underselling.

Now on ba.com they are not selling any seats in any class and the flight does not appear on flightstats.

Does this mean the flight is likely to be cancelled - if so will they ring me in advance to re-route? Don't have a massive issue regarding this but am only going for a week so will be a bit miffed if itinerary cut by 1/7

DYKWIA

I'd suggest that you phone them ASAP rather than waiting. I've no idea where BA49 goes to/from, but you may be at the front of the queue for reroutes if you contact them early.

Globaliser

No. It's just been successfully sold. The chances are that even a couple of days ago it was pretty heavily booked. Remember there's only a limited amount you can tell from availability displays that are all or mostly 9s.

Currently F1 A1 J1 C1 D1 R1 I1 W0 EC TC Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 LC VC SC NC QC OC G0

Swanhunter

Indeed. I suspect it is over by lots and lots down the back and there will be op-ups galore. That would explain why there was redemption space - hoping to get you to offload miles instead of giving it away for free.

badoc

Just phoned them, thanks. Very odd as now flight completely full. Never seen seats sell that fast - good news for BA I suppose.

badoc

Doubt it - 2 adults, 2 children and only me a GCH - others make the rusty grade though this trip.

Nice thought though, that would pass the time a bit faster as a good route for NF

Swanhunter

This has been normal on BA for a while. They are revenue maximising by overselling even cheap economy fares on certain flights, certain routes and at certain times of year. I've seen it on HKG, SIN and BKK at low business travel travel periods where a flight will suddenly jump from 9's to 0's 1-2 days before departure.

As for your op-up chances. It's not an elite heavy route (v JFK or LAX for example), it's a light time of year for business travel. It might just happen.

Globaliser

Remember, to get from F9 A9 J9 C9 D9 R9 I2 W9 T9 Y9 B9 H9 etc to F1 A1 J1 C1 D1 R1 I1 W0 EC TC Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 LC VC SC NC QC OC G0, you only need to take 8 bookings - and that assumes a linear removal of inventory as seats are booked, which is not necessarily true.

badoc

Didn't realise that - can you expand on this a bit more as I'm not sure I completely follow. Thanks

LHRFlyer

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I was on the 49 and return 48 a couple of weeks ago in WT+ and got an op up to J both ways due to oversold cabins.

hsmall

My take (Globaliser please correct if wrong) is that 9 is the maximum number that is revealed as saleable in a given fare bucket. But there might be many more than nine available. If for example the plane is half full in economy the airline will be more than happy to sell, say, 50 seats in Y. So if someone buys nine Y seats expertflyer will still indicate "Y9", because those nine have simply been replaced by another nine from the 50.

Or to put it another way 9 means >=9 .

corporate-wage-slave

Indeed 9 means at least 9 in the this context. It's not a different 9 in all the buckets, it could be the same 9 available across multiple buckets, or even all buckets.

This pattern is so normal on long hauls that I would actually be a lot more surprised if it was any other story. Seattles, Vancouvers, SanFrannies, LAXes, NYCs - generally the same story: wide open upto T-48 then a big fat zero across the buckets overnight.

I stopped looking at these tools for exactly this purpose, I also see no discernable pattern from the above (or indeed any other) as to whether an OpUp will come one's way, with one exception: if you have a point to point booking, MMB gives an interesting upgrade offer, then OLCI gives a very interesting offer. But then you need the nerve to decline them.

Globaliser

This close to the flight, at a low time for business travel, the airline may just want to get 9 more reservations in any cabin, as there are going to be op-ups in any event. Don't forget that this is 9 more reservations before reaching the overbooking limit, as something in the order of 10% of reservations simply fail to show up at check-in.

So if you start with this (hypothetically), perhaps indicating that the airline will take 9 (but no more than 9) reservations, but not much caring which cabin they're in:-
F9 A9 J9 C9 D9 R9 I9 W9 E9 T9 Y9 B9 H9

Suppose two reservations are made in the W cabin. This reduces the required number of reservations by 2. So availability could then change to this, showing that the airline will now take 7 (but no more than 7) reservations, but is still prepared to take them in any cabin:-
F7 A7 J7 C7 D7 R7 I7 W7 E7 T7 Y7 B7 H7

Then two reservations are made in the J cabin. This reduces the required number of reservations by 2 more, but also reduces the space available for op-ups. So the airline becomes less keen to take W or Y cabin reservations and shows:-
F5 A5 J5 C5 D5 R5 I5 W1 E1 T1 Y1 B1 H1

Suppose two more reservations are made in the J cabin. The airline now decided that it definitely does not want to take any more W or Y reservations because of the number of op-ups, so availability changes to:-
F3 A3 J3 C3 D3 R3 I3 W0 E0 T0 Y0 B0 H0

Then two more reservations are made in the J cabin. This then leaves:-
F1 A1 J1 C1 D1 R1 I1 W0 E0 T0 Y0 B0 H0

All of this is purely hypothetical, but it shows how you could get what you have seen starting with a display that wrongly gives the impression that the flight is "wide open" - when in fact it was only ever 9 seats short of the overbooking limit.

badoc

Ah - totally get it now. I was naive to assume it meant there were at least 9 seats in each of the booking classes, which did strike me as odd. Thanks again.

hsmall

Thanks. That is much more sophisticated than my effort.