Impact of extended lockdown on BA June schedule

I think July flights were about to be cancelled anyway, regardless of the most recent announcement. Maybe a few more will be now, but most would have gone anyway.

Pretty sure we'll see the policy backtracked or amended ("air corridors") when the rest of Europe opens up in mid/end June. Whether the airlines will hedge their bets on that happening or just cancel schedules regardless will become clear in the next week or two.

The quarantine policy is being introduced to be effective from 8 June with renewal every 3 weeks so by 29 June and 20 July.

I cannot imagine it will be introduced then terminated after just three weeks as this would require notice to be given to the airline about not being renewed almost immediately after it launched - which would undermine the whole thing.

20 July is the start of the school holiday period in England.

It would take a very gutsy government to renew the policy from 20 July and say all foreign holidays are effectively cancelled, look after the kids at home or stay in the UK this summer.

It would appear that the entire UK population was paying for the government's early negligence by having their summer holiday taken away.

I suspect the quarantine will end on 19th July (with just one renewal)

On the subject of airbridges... the UK is clearly one of the highest-risk countries in the world

Which (low-risk) country is going to want an airbridge with the UK ?

lots will.

portugal and spain for sure. Need the money

My guess is there will be three weeks and then another further three weeks but not for countries with a similar R rate and a reciprocal arrangement such as most if not all of europe.

Other high risk countries like Brazil will be included in the second three week quarantine arrangements.

Can we keep in mind that Scottish schools will be in holiday by the end of June? So plenty up here will get hurt by this much sooner.

Brazil today renewed the 30 day ban on foreigners - a week early though so the new ban now goes until 22 June. So I would expect the GRU resolutions resumptions to be pushed to 01 July now?

Just need it to be pushed past 10 July and I'll get my cancellation.... really need this!

I think it's just a matter of time until matters come to a head in tourist destinations. Saying "stay away" in the off-season at the start of a lockdown might be easy. Saying "no" in peak-season, having already incurred losses and now knowing that significant revenue is at least 12 months away, can be controversial. If locals took matters into their own hands, could it do long-term, structural damage to the tourism industry in Scotland?

There are further reductions for short-haul service in the first week of June. For example CDG is down from daily to 4 weekly.
Remaining weeks seems not yet affected.

With the announcement of the UK implementing a 14-day quarantine for passengers arriving outside from the country, there would be further modifications to the June schedule.
Also, anyone flying these days/weeks should have a plan B for last-minute cancellations and schedule changes.

So is June pretty much set in stone now? Despite the UK quarantine and the Brazilian renewed ban on foreigners (until at least the 22nd), LHR to GRU is still seemingly restarting on 16th June. It's barely two weeks away now so I am surprised this hasn't been changed yet.

It's still almost three weeks until the beginning of the second half of June. In the present circumstances, the cloud of uncertainty between now and then is still quite dense. Cancellations and changes are highly likely, but you might have to wait until the weekend or the start of next week.

The 14-day quarantine seem to apply to flight cancellations as well.

More seriously, the final cancellation adjustments seem to take place roughly 2 weeks before a flight.

Most countries. Britain being a notable exceptions, imposed entry restrictions on anyone but citizens/permanent residents from March, possibly April. BA international flights have been "repatriation" flights in either direction, even if not officially called that. By now, most have repositioned and traffic on the few BA international flights in May has dwindled to a trickle, except possibly from the countries last hit by virus like South Asia.
By June, any sane European still in Brazil would have flown back, and Brits would certainly not wait for the 8 June UK quarantine. I can't see how BA can fly a daily GRU from 16 June. By next week they will probably/certainly cancel most BA247.

Exactly 7 days after the final payment for the holiday was due...

Am hoping to avoid Brazil in July and not have to take a voucher so fingers crossed cancellations continuei July too!