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Do you think DFW will ever be reduced/eliminated as a hub?

Do you think DFW will ever be reduced/eliminated as a hub?

Old Oct 30, 2023, 7:40 pm
  #1  
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Do you think DFW will ever be reduced/eliminated as a hub?

We all know that, right now, DFW is AA's main and biggest hub, essentially the "bread and butter" of all its hubs. You can basically go anywhere from DFW. This is not dissimilar to how DL treats ATL, and how UA treats ORD/IAH (evenly, I think, although I'd give ORD a small inch over IAH).

This is purely speculation, but do you think AA will ever phase DFW out as a hub and focus instead on PHX, CLT, PHL, and maybe ORD/MIA, especially pmUS hubs, as they are a bit cheaper to operate than pmAA hubs? We've all seen how the merged airline seemed to favor pmUS amenities, meals, hubs, etc., and transformed AA into a basic airline that wasn't as deeply thought-out as pmAA. DFW is quintessentially AA and is what AA calls home, but I do wonder if AA will want to move away from DFW? It kind of seems like AA management are mainly pmUS and there's some kind of odd, underlying disdain to pmAA I sense from them, but they grudgingly kept some of pmAA's amenities, service, etc. because of complaints. It's hard to explain, just kind of a sense I get.

Just wondering what you think, and which hub you think will be on the way out next, if AA decides to eliminate a hub?
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 7:41 pm
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No. ORD and PHX would go first, if that ever were to happen.

The pre merger comparisons really arent valid anymore. Its been a decade, and the industry has changed quite a bit.
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 7:54 pm
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Absolutely not. Besides the fact that this is AA's headquarters, DFW is a critical mid-continent hub that can connect passengers anywhere in the US in <4 hours. Dallas is a booming city and one of increasing importance as a center of job and population growth, economic activity, etc., and a place where AA has a lot of economic and political sway. Why would they move away? There's just too much to lose and no other location that AA could objectively expand to the degree that would be needed to replace DFW.

Now, I'd like to see them come up with a more cohesive strategy for their international gateways and would expect to see more TATL growth in PHL and CLT as opposed to DFW, and hopefully a desire to rebuild LAX as their TPAC hub down the line.

Still DFW is AA, and AA is DFW and that will not change in our lifetimes.
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 7:54 pm
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Nope.
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 8:15 pm
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Originally Posted by USFlyerUS
No. ORD and PHX would go first, if that ever were to happen.
Why do you think ORD/PHX would be the first two hubs to go, if that were to happen?
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 8:52 pm
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Ever is a long time, but not in the foreseeable future. If more runways were ever built at jfk, I could see PHL being dehubbed.

Last edited by donotblink; Oct 31, 2023 at 1:36 am
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 9:04 pm
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Originally Posted by MrAndy1369
Why do you think ORD/PHX would be the first two hubs to go, if that were to happen?
Because AA hasnt done much with either in quite some time. Im not saying either will or should go. I like AAs existing hub make up as it is. I also dont have the disdain for PHL and CLT that others do, but Im also a legacy US Airways person and lived in those hubs for over a decade.
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 9:08 pm
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STL was TWA main hub. According to Wikipedia: "By September 1999, Lambert was TWA's main hub, with 103 destinations served by 515 daily flights: 352 on TWA mainline aircraft and 163 on Trans World Express flights operated by its commuter airline partners. Lambert became the eighth-busiest U.S. airport by flights." We all know what happened next: 9/11 and the TWA collapse. Today, AAL is trading at $11.18 and the nearly linear decline in the stock prices over the last few years is clear. The company has a large debt and the interest rates are high. Thus, it is not completely out of question if after some unexpected and large scale events the whole operation would collapse. In such unlikely but not impossible scenario, the AA assets may be purchased by still solvent UA. Then DFW will be taken over by lowcosters like Southwest while UA will concentrate on IAH.
Look, it is hard to predict the future of large corporations, McDonald Douglas is gone. IBM is still in business but its focus changed over the years. The way the things are going, AA may shift into a credit card signup business.
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 9:19 pm
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While AA has had limited to no vision and consistent strategy, even they're not stupid enough to dehub DFW.
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 9:24 pm
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Yes- when the sun expands to consume the planets
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 9:45 pm
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Originally Posted by Alex_I
STL was TWA main hub. According to Wikipedia: "By September 1999, Lambert was TWA's main hub, with 103 destinations served by 515 daily flights: 352 on TWA mainline aircraft and 163 on Trans World Express flights operated by its commuter airline partners. Lambert became the eighth-busiest U.S. airport by flights." We all know what happened next: 9/11 and the TWA collapse. Today, AAL is trading at $11.18 and the nearly linear decline in the stock prices over the last few years is clear. The company has a large debt and the interest rates are high. Thus, it is not completely out of question if after some unexpected and large scale events the whole operation would collapse. In such unlikely but not impossible scenario, the AA assets may be purchased by still solvent UA. Then DFW will be taken over by lowcosters like Southwest while UA will concentrate on IAH.
Look, it is hard to predict the future of large corporations, McDonald Douglas is gone. IBM is still in business but its focus changed over the years. The way the things are going, AA may shift into a credit card signup business.
That is not correct. TWA was acquired by AA in late 2000. 9/11 had nothing to do with TWA's demise.
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 9:52 pm
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LOL! Not a chance! AA controls way too much in DFW. Yes, it’s their main hub, home base for headquarters, training, etc. With the vast resources in the DFW metroplex available when it comes to hiring, cost of living for employees, business friendly state, no state income tax, etc., not a chance! Way too many companies still relocating to the DFW area. Throw in AA strong arms their way to shut down any airline they feel could be a threat and it’s allowed by the powers that be in Dallas, Ft Worth and Texas….no way would they give up DFW as their home. They are currently trying to shut down JSX. They leased gates at Love Field when that airport was expanded to prevent other airlines from being able to expand within this market. They shut down Legend Airlines. And if the mayor of McKinney gets his way and they build a commercial terminal at McKinney (TKI), I’m sure AA will jump in and lease as many of the proposed 16 gates to keep other airlines out. They might fly one flight a day to somewhere but that is it. And they would be allowed to do such.
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Last edited by DASRTR; Oct 31, 2023 at 11:26 am
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 9:55 pm
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AA's operation in DFW and the entire region is a fortress. I forget sometimes that UA even has hubs in DEN and IAH, which are generally not that much farther from where I am at, because the local service by UA to those hubs pale in comparison to what AA does with the regional airports to/from DFW. And once in DFW, you can pretty much fly anywhere.

Originally Posted by gophish11
Absolutely not. Besides the fact that this is AA's headquarters, DFW is a critical mid-continent hub that can connect passengers anywhere in the US in <4 hours. Dallas is a booming city and one of increasing importance as a center of job and population growth, economic activity, etc., and a place where AA has a lot of economic and political sway. Why would they move away? There's just too much to lose and no other location that AA could objectively expand to the degree that would be needed to replace DFW.

Now, I'd like to see them come up with a more cohesive strategy for their international gateways and would expect to see more TATL growth in PHL and CLT as opposed to DFW, and hopefully a desire to rebuild LAX as their TPAC hub down the line.

Still DFW is AA, and AA is DFW and that will not change in our lifetimes.
Frankly, I'd love to see DFW's international operation continue to build-out. The East Coast (in general) is pretty well served TATL, and sure AA has to compete in that space and there are obvious logistical benefits of gatewaying to Europe from PHL/CLT, but there is a region of 40+ million or so over here that is very well connected to DFW (and only DFW), and tens of millions more that can just as easily (or more easily) connect through DFW logistically speaking than PHL or CLT. PHL, overall, is pretty poorly connected to much of the central and western US. The nearest 7 airports to me that AA serves (SWO, TUL, OKC, LAW, JLN, XNA, ICT) all go to Dallas (with pretty darn good frequency too), only a couple have a flight to CLT, and none go to PHL. ((And, what sucks about that, is that TATL flights from DFW always seem to cost a fortune. I find it amazing at how cheap and empty AA TATL flights can be from JFK in comparison))
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 10:03 pm
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Originally Posted by MarkOK
((And, what sucks about that, is that TATL flights from DFW always seem to cost a fortune. I find it amazing at how cheap and empty AA TATL flights can be from JFK in comparison))
Wouldn't say those flights are empty, especially post-pandemic. Competition's a wonderful thing for those JFK flights, which keeps prices down, and there's also the other reality: a lot of people visiting the US want to go to JFK, and not many people visiting the US want to go to DFW.
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Old Oct 30, 2023, 10:38 pm
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Originally Posted by Alex_I
.... Thus, it is not completely out of question if after some unexpected and large scale events the whole operation would collapse.
Ummmm, like a worldwide health pandemic that closed 95% of domestic and worldwide flight travel...?
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