Number of EXP
 

I haven’t been on this site for a very long time. I came to understand the experiences of the forum.

Of late I am seeing a ton of EXPs and Group 1s on flights I am taking. I recently flew following segments with over 50 EXPs
- BOS to ORD
- BOS to DFW
- DFW to SAT
- DFW to BOS
- DFW to ORD

I have over 350K loyalty points this year and I was surprised to see myself #30 or higher on the Upgrade wait list.

What are you seeing?

The highest I've ever been was #6 when there was 1 seat available, even on award flights (where I'm below any other EXP). #30 is crazy. I get upgraded well over half the time (usually on awards) but I've never flown any of those routes and I often fly mid week. Obviously this is going to be very route dependent, and DFW is probably the worst place for that. I'm PHX-based, which still gives me a lot of direct flights since it's a hub, but nowhere near the number of elites who are DFW based.

Remember that if you are using miles you are behind all other EXP who pay cash, regardless of 12-month rolling LP

Not anymore. That changed recently when they made award upgrades open to everyone. Now it's treated the same as a cash ticket.

Really?? That's good (for me, because most of my flights are award flights)

Then again I will probably never get more than 250k LP in a year so I'm probably near the bottom of the EXP list no matter what.

Here's my feeling about it, for whatever it's worth. If you want F, just buy it. I'm still doing the whole EP thing because I like the partner awards and live in a hub city, but my loyalty to any one carrier has diminished significantly over the past several years with all the devaluations.

I think it really matters when you fly. If you fly the same patterns that many weekly travelers fly, you will encounter a lot of other elites.

Hm, is that true?

via https://www.aa.com/i18n/aadvantage-program/miles/redeem/award-travel/complimentary-upgrades.jsp
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But interestingly, here, when they give the order, they don't mention award vs paid tickets, implying that they are treated the same: https://www.aa.com/i18n/aadvantage-p...y-upgrades.jsp

I'm not sure what the right answer is

Positive! :)

AA is terrible about updating their website consistently. They removed it from the section below but left it in the accordion. Also see: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...d-tickets.html

It changed June 9, 2023. AA's website is handled with the same love and care as the rest of AA's customer facing operation.

Link above on FT and also several blogs like the usual suspects. Here is another : https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/t...-award-tickets

These are all very elite heavy routes. When I haven't purchased first outright or been upgraded in advance, I've usually been #1-3 on the list with about 275K rolling 12-month LPs. With all the airlines now upselling first, I would likely have easily been upgraded in advance, but those days are gone.

I think that while there may be more EPs than in the past, I have not necessarily seen upgrade odds change on my normal, mid-week business routes. What has changed is that travel patterns are now different for frequent, weekly travelers, than they were before the pandemic. I feel like Fridays and Sundays are the busy days, whereas pre-pandemic it seemed like Thursdays and Mondays were the busy days.

My guess is 5-10% of all elites are EXP.

This sounds about right. It may actually not be very much more than in the past, it's just noticed more on certain routes. Maybe at places like DFW with a fortress hub, more people are getting EP by CC spend because they have incentives to accumulate AA miles, but there are less old-fashioned flying EPs based in places like BNA or STL, for example.

I don't feel like my upgrade chances, overall, have changed much since prior to the pandemic, it's just that routes through ORD, DCA, PHL, PHX, etc. are much more of a guarantee than DFW, whereas in the past it used to be more balanced.

By comparison looks like Delta's diamonds are too many because of this silly rollover they've had for years. Now their culling back.

This is a question that is very hard to gauge and is skewed by individual observations. Ive been very, very successful on my upgrades this year - although it has been a close call on a few flights. I do fly a mix of routes (business/leisure), and typically out of DCA or paid F. Thinking back this year, my widest miss was IIRC SJU-MIA where I was probably #6 on the list.

Many others I've either made it at some point in the upgrade window or was #1 on the list.

My LPs are in the low 200,000 range for the year.