SAME. All of this. And I often fly on random days like Tuesday evenings... not NYC-LA or NYC-SF on a Monday morning.

Interesting. I have about the same rolling 12-months LPs as you, flying out of CLT, and not been less #2 on the list all year.

I'm not likely to re-qual for EXP this year unless I can convince SWMBO to send me to Israel again... my upgrade %-age this year has been really good unless I book close to departure. Sure that bumps me up the list ahead of lower tiers but most of the other EXPs by then have already been upgraded so I'm usually #4-5-6 on the list with 0/1 seat open.

My lowest has been same, an ORD-LGA flight on a 319 where I was #6 on the list, (but miraculously cleared when the plane went tech and was swapped to a 321), and I frequently find myself #1-3 if I don't clear. For ORD/DFW, I believe I'm at 100% UG rate, but I'm flying either the first flight ORD-DFW or last DFW-ORD, and not on Mondays (and usually not Fridays either).

I have noticed my upgrade rate decreasing slightly (I don't know how many rolling LPs (If there's a way to look it up I'd love to know), but I have just shy of 300k since March 1st), but that's when I'm flying on more business heavy days/routes, I have no problem clearing on most routes that I fly, as long as I basically avoid DFW-LAX/MIA, as well as LGA when on 319s (and 319s in general).

I'm not sure on the specific number of EXPs that are out there, and I don't even want to hazard a guess, but It's definitely skewed in terms of how often people fly. Obviously one can achieve EXP now without stepping foot on a plane, and there was a whole thread here on not meeting the 30 or so segment requirement for the choice rewards, and then there's the opposite end - I'm at ~225 flights so far this year (starting Jan 1), with about 150 on AA and another 50 on OW carriers, so I've been able to somewhat tune my flying to avoid flights where I probably won't get upgraded and pick flights that are less popular for elites.

The highest I have been this year was #9 on MIA-LHR with a SWU - that was a little ego shattering ;-) - about 290K LPs.

I don't think I have been higher than 3 or 4 on a domestic flight - but i am not the typical road warrior.

#30 for an EXP just seems insane, and doesn't seem to match the experience of others. This is doubly true since it's not just a one-time thing. I wonder if there's something wrong here... status not correct in the system or something.

I've had periodic issues over the last decade where I would show as EXP but be 12th on the list after Gold members. AA had to do something to fix it twice.

It could also be a freak flight. I've been on a DFW-LHR with 60 EXPs and 20 CKs onboard, including 9 CKs in Y. FA showed me the tablet.

It seems that some people earn their chops on "marquee" routes, and some people earn in by chopping their way through underbrush. DFW-LHR and JFK-LHR and LAX-MIA feel pretty marquee. DCA-CHS and DFW-LRD feel a lot less so.

I never seem to upgrade DFW-BOS. Last summer I was close on BOS-DFW on a Friday evening flight but I got screwed over because I had a companion and they only released 1 seat at a time up till gate control (when only 1 seat remained). From T-100 till T-24, I saw 5 open F seats slowly disappear 1 at a time, and then at T-24 I could see I and companion were # 1 and 2, but from T-24 till gate control, I saw the #3 disappear on the list three different times whenever an F seat opened up and then disappeared -- I was perhaps a little obsessed that morning watching it so closely, but I am a bit peaved on how AA's system keeps filling 1 seat at a time. In hindsight, my upgrade chances with a companion are near nothing (happened once? DFW-SEA in Fall of 2020) but my upgrades traveling solo the last 2 years has been about 50%. Always going through DFW, but usually I travel at non-elite-peak times. Anyways, side-story - but I find the companion upgrade perk to be trash, I haven't even gotten domestic upgrades on SWUs when I have a companion if it wasn't cleared at booking -- Companions really just likely ruins your own upgrade.

On my DCA/MIA flight last night there were 7 CKs so I have to wonder if big cc spenders can also get CK. I was only in F because I paid for it. So quite a number of Group one people heading towards steerage.

Yes they can.

Question within a question - I'm curious how many LP your average EXP will requalify with. New thread? Post here?

I'll probably nudge 300k with my planned travel. Probably 60-70% of that through flying and the rest through hotel bonuses and CC spend.

I'm averaging just under 40k/mo, and I typically use my points/miles in Jan/Feb, so I'm aiming to squeak past the 400k mark for the additional rewards. Then stop applying WD40 to the hamster wheel and cut back on travel. I know the grass isn't greener on the other side but shifting some travel to UA (being in ORD) seems enticing given I've still got some years left in me and the lackluster Million Miler program on AA's side.

DFW to ORD is one AA hub to another. That's going to be a plane full of elites. I wouldn't count on an upgrade on any of these flights as an XP outside of DFW-SAT.