Magnum9

Currently on my 5th year as an ExPlat. I’m sitting at just shy of 140k LP’s since the new program year started March 1st (85% earned from flights/15% from CC spend).

Since around May 1st I’ve noticed a change in when my upgrades occur. Where it used be 100-hours on the dot for flights with more than 6+ seats still open, I’m now only clearing around 36 hours before departure.

For example - I have an 8am flight this Monday morning (approx 48-hours from now) that’s C7 J7 R7 D7 I7 and still no upgrade. This is a route operated 8x a day by AA (2 flights before my 8am departure) and all flights are showing between 5-7 seats still available in F on ExpertFlyer.

Another example - Last week I flew AA ATL-MIA on the 5:59pm departure on an A321 that was C9 J9 R9 D9 I9 until 48-hours before departure and somewhere around the 36-hour mark I *finally* got upgraded and there was still 75% of the F cabin open.

I’m curious if a stealth change has happened and am wondering if other ExPlat’s are noticing similar or are still getting upgraded starting 100-hours out from departure on wide open flights in F?

GNRMatt

The window hasn't changed. However, the formula for deciding when to release seats for upgrades is always in flux.

Magnum9

The formula (IME) only seems to have changed ~May 1st.

I’d be curious to know whether other EP’s with over 125k+ LP’s already (since AA uses LPs accrued in the new program year and # of flights as a factor in who to prioritize in each tier for upgrades) if they’re getting upgraded at 100-hours out….*or*…..are they also seeing their upgrades only clearing a day or so before departure on flights with lots of F availability?

GNRMatt

I have less LP's than that as an EXP and I have seen 100-hr upgrades since 5/1/2023.

AmericanCaptive

I have seen my 100 hour upgrades decline…even when F was empty.

enpremiere

The balance has shifted in favor of more app and kiosk based upgrades with more seats being held back during the upgrade window (even the in the case of "cabin relatively empty but no upgrades within the window" scenarios) so while the window hasn't officially changed and some flights will still clear at the respective status/hour marks, as Q3 rounds the corner with some relatively lackluster forecasts it would stand to reason that this will continue.

enviroian

Yes. Continually and consistency.

Antarius

AA does not use number of flights for upgrade priority.

It's rolling 12 month LPs.

bse118

This is incorrect. AA use 12-month rolling LPs to determine upgrade list order, within status groups. Not current program year LPs. # of flights has nothing to do with it.

I clear some upgrades at 100 hours. Some at closer in. A few at the gate. I've had flights that were mostly empty clear at 24 hours. I've had flights that seemed mostly full clear at 100 hours. I generally find that it's not worth my time trying to figure out the vagaries of AA's inventory management. YMMV

dc10forlife

My experience had been that 100-hr upgrades were more likely on AA regional than mainline.

I had an interesting experience, however, on my last flight from PHL to CMH on Pacific Southwest Airlines. One week out the F cabin on the CRJ-700 was empty, so I thought I was sure to get the upgrade at T-100hrs. But I also saw in my app that upgrades were being sold for around $60, which is an absolute no-brainer for anyone who is checking a bag. Sure enough, when I checked back in at T-36, the F cabin was completely full, so I figured I would not get the upgrade (which is not a big deal on this 1 hour flight). The morning of the flight, I did get upgraded, with a choice of two seats in Row 1. At the airport, there were about 15 on the upgrade list for the remaining 1 seat.

enviroian

This.

Magnum9

Appreciate you both sharing your data points.

I’m not sure I understand AA’s logic behind how a 1-2x a year flyer who splurges once on a $70 app/kiosk upgrade is more valuable to them than someone with almost 140k LP ($14k) only 5 months into the program year and will have approx 220k LPs after my travel that’s already booked next month and September.

I can understand if AA maybe shifted from EP’s getting upgrades starting at 100-hours out down to say 75-hours to give AA another day to sell more F seats via the app or new purchase. But if 75%+ of the F cabin still isn’t sold 3 days before departure (using EF data not going by seat map) then it’s seems petty to penalize EP’s like this.

**Side note - I also have Delta DM status, and while many of their changes to the SkyMiles program have been so customer unfriendly even the word “devalued” isn’t strong enough, they still aren’t this bad with upgrades even though they’re more aggressive with their in-app buy-up F offers and they actually give you the bonus MQM’s and RDM’s, unlike AA which gives you the seat, but your earnings stay at the same Y earnings.

Appreciate your clarification.

Just so I understand - if there’s 2 passengers and both have 250k LP over the past 12-months, one earned from flying and the other *only* through CC spend and didn’t take 1 AA flight - they’re viewed equal when on the exact same fare class. Or who trumps who?

EXP100

What I'm seeing that if the F cabin is half full I can forget about getting upgrade at T-100 as before I would have likely been upgraded. And this I would assume is due to AA aggressively selling upgrades. At times I even bite when I see it down to 4 or less seats (738, 321). I'm seeing many more T-4 upgrades. This is the new normal and isn't going to change.

bse118

Here's the thing - I'm not sure why it matters if you clear at 36 hours or 100 hours. I'm still clearing upgrades on more than 80% of my domestic flights, I still get F seats, and still get to select from the 3 or 4 different versions of slop that AA calls food on the flights that have it. Literally makes no difference if the upgrade comes at 100hrs, 72hrs, or 36hrs.

And I definitely prefer that AA doesn't fill the cabin up with upgrades completely before departure. Several times I've either booked a flight inside of 24hour or switched day of flight - and then immediately cleared the upgrade.

I don't track rolling LPs, but probably around 260K. Got 140K this program year.

Oh, and there's far more important aspects to the elite benefits than domestic upgrades.

txpenny

AA makes no distinction of how the LPs are earned.