355F1

With the loss of International AAdvantage Award Business Class sAAver awards on AA metal, and the exorbitant number of miles it now costs to book those J tickets, what is everyone seeing now (and thinking about what the future holds) in regards to SWUs becoming easier to clear?

You'd think that with these current 400k+ Mile J Award Ticket prices that people who were booking sAAver awards would not be booking these award trips any longer, thereby freeing up some of those previously taken seats to use for SWUs to clear. I certainly am not blowing 400k AA Miles to fly in J.

I am seeing many completely full international flights in J since Nov 2022, and have been #1 twice without clearing into J using an SWU.

I go to look at cash fares and I am seeing $7k to fly to Europe--WHO is paying seven thousand dollars to fly to Europe?!!!??!?!?!! I have never even paid anywhere near $7k to fly LAX-SE Asia on SQ in J.

Looking forward to your thoughts.

enviroian

No way. Even if this was true AA would never increase C because of freed up award seats. Just don't see it happening.

400K seats are probably the new normal so "blowing 400K" isn't considered blowing (by AA standards).

It's a new world and we need to get used to the crappy world we live in.

Acidity

Business travelers

It's important to remember that AA is very plane limited right now, especially with wide bodies. Once deliveries get on track the number of international flights (and correspondingly, seats) should increase noticeably.

And even better, the new seating arrangement for wide bodies that AA is going with has substantially more J seats than the current setup, which will further alleviate the supply shortage.

enviroian

What heavies are they waiting for? Aren't the 787's the ones that have the lowest J seat configuration (compared to 772 and 3)

javabytes

Not gonna change SWU availability or success rates one bit.

enviroian

It's only a matter of time before the big US 3 take away SWU's, GPU's etc. Yep. Get ready. "Status" will take on a new meaning.

stant

i still see 50-60k miles per direction on my preferred routes us to europe in business
i just booked us to business round trip for a little over 3 thousand, not even 30 days out.

if you LOOK for sky high rates, surprise surprise, you find them.

lowfareair

Ah yes, I personally email AA and give them routes I want to search for in the next few days, asking them to make the rates as high as possible. Yeah, that's the ticket.

I've probably done 200 searches in the last year on European routes that AA flies and I cannot recall anything in the five digit range of points for J on AA. Would love to know what route you're on that actually has that, especially to Europe.

Acidity

30 789s with a 51J/32W setup. Current 773s have 8F/52J/28W and 772s have 37J/24W. Current 789s are outfitted 30J/21W (unknown if these will be retrofitted).

They're also retrofitting the 773s to 70J/28W, so that will add some more J seats in the air.

Also 50 new A321XLRs with 20J/12W. These are replacing the transcontinental A321s currently used, but that's not going to take all 50, so those will probably be used for smaller international destinations (and accordingly result in more J seats across the oceans).

Furby

There are still transatlantic awards on AA available in the low 100’s each way but you have to work at finding them. Rarely 5 digits, but not always 400,000 and up. I did find 2 transatlantic tickets on AA in F for 87.5K miles a few weeks back and booked them. A rare unicorn, but they exist if you are flexible. BA transatlantic flights are typically 57.5K miles in J each way with very decent availability especially if booking aways ahead. Yes, they have high fees but I view it as a way to use AA miles to get a flexible business class ticket for the price of a coach ticket. So more of an upgrade opportunity than a free ticket. In any case, the era of free FF tickets is mostly over with all the airlines. There are ways to extract value but you have to work at it.

FlyFreakquently

I was able to find J awards later this month for DCA-ORD-LHR and PHL-ORD-LHR at 88k and 90k miles, respectively. There was nothing for under 120k on the date I needed for weeks and I just happened to check one morning and saw this. As soon as I booked it, the price shot back up.

Obviously, this is a rare find during the summer, but there are still >6 figure awards out there.

TarsTarkas

If 400K becomes the new normal, I will have to find another game to play.

This is not a whine, it's simply reality for me.
As a non-US resident, my only means of earning are flying and CC spend. The most I can rack up during any given year is 200K...if I get real creative.

This summer our family of four is doing Japan and SE Asia in J. This will be our first intercontinental premium redemption after nearly three decades of almost exclusive AA flying and spending (we normally slog it out in coach). It took me between four to five years to scrape together sufficient miles to book the award.

We were looking forward to more trips like this, perhaps every 3 or four years, but at the rates I am seeing now, that has become unattainable.
Three million RDM will take me nearly fifteen years to accumulate. The only things I plan that far ahead are mortgage and retirement, not family vacation.

I think part of the problem is the sheer number of bonus RDMs that one can earn (in the US). Sign-up bonus, spend bonus, category bonus, mall, dining, hotel etc. I believe that all of these are contributing to serious inflation.

As someone posted in another thread, switching to a cash-back card in combination with low-cost carriers is becoming a more attractive and achievable option for many.

PHL

The 30 789's begin deliveries in 2024.
The 321XLR deiveries were also supposed to also begin in 2024, but recent news suggests it won't be certified and ready to customer deliveries until later in 2024 and we have no idea where AA stands on the delivery list. The mission for those XLRs is, indeed, for thin Europe and Latin America, as well as to fill in the gaps left by the standardization of the subfleet of ~16 321Ts.

enviroian

So all these new 787s and 321 super duper ELR planes — does that mean we are going to see AA servicing more EU routes like they used to?

FlyingEgghead

But OP was talking about clearing even at the gate, not just in advance. All unsold seats will ultimately be available for upgrades even if not released as C.