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Ticket prices skyrocketing

Ticket prices skyrocketing

Old May 25, 22, 7:58 am
  #31  
 
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I have looked at Airpass recently too. not ready to pull that trigger. Am pricing an open jaw trip to the west coast early next year and Alaska F pricing looks pretty good, compared to other AA options. So in this current situation its good to have flexibility.
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Old May 25, 22, 8:01 am
  #32  
 
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I noticed that first class to Maui out of DFW in the peak winter timeframe are ridiculously priced, both in $ and miles. However they have been tinkering with them recently, and the $ fares have recently started to come down a little perhaps because no one seems to be buying! United fares out of Chicago are a much more reasonable price.
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Old May 25, 22, 8:58 am
  #33  
 
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Originally Posted by boerne View Post
I have looked at Airpass recently too. not ready to pull that trigger. Am pricing an open jaw trip to the west coast early next year and Alaska F pricing looks pretty good, compared to other AA options. So in this current situation its good to have flexibility.
Having had aairpass (with CK) before and now having UA PassPlus, I will say pass plus is a MUCH better program. Have to book originating tickets in the US, but get a flat % off based on fare class; and can use across the TATL JV and TPAC JV partners.
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Old May 25, 22, 9:15 am
  #34  
 
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Not surprised with Fuel and everything else in general so high, thank you inflation.

OKC/BOS was ~400 in Y throughout 2019 when I was making multiple trips up there. Just booked again for a trip this summer and Y was almost 900, F was 1600.
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Old May 25, 22, 9:41 am
  #35  
 
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Originally Posted by ijgordon View Post
I think this is a meaningful driver of AA's F fares. I haven't done the analysis recently, but I'm sure that AA's FC seats as a % of total seats across the narrowbody fleet is quite a bit lower than UA/DL (it's not just the 319s, their 320s have 25% fewer F seats than the competition too, and aren't the 321's only 16F (DL is 20)?
Also, FWIW, I suspect that $3k SFO-DAY fare is because of married segment availability that's only offering full J.
Just looked at Aerolopa (see below for some numbers) out of curiosity, and it seems like the carriers are all pretty similar other than AA having less F on the 319 and Delta's 320 (for United, I'm not sure as familiar with their fleet but I don't think they have many of the 319 and 320's anyway). Either way, the 321 and 738 are really the vast majority of AA's planes, and they're similar there (at first I wrote competitive instead of similar, then I thought better of myself). Somehow, DL has the same number of Y seats as AA on their 319, and 3 more Y seats on their 320 (despite also having 4 more F seats on each).

F seats per narrowbody airplane:

AA:
319: 8
320: 12
321: 20 (I'm not including the A321T)
738: 16

Delta:
220: 12
319: 12
320: 16
321: 20
738: 16
739: 20
752: 16 or 20
753: 24

United:
319: 12
320: 12
737: 12
738: 16
739: 20
752: 16
753: 24
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Old May 25, 22, 10:32 am
  #36  
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Originally Posted by LlamaJesus View Post
Just looked at Aerolopa (see below for some numbers) out of curiosity, and it seems like the carriers are all pretty similar other than AA having less F on the 319 and Delta's 320 (for United, I'm not sure as familiar with their fleet but I don't think they have many of the 319 and 320's anyway). Either way, the 321 and 738 are really the vast majority of AA's planes, and they're similar there (at first I wrote competitive instead of similar, then I thought better of myself). Somehow, DL has the same number of Y seats as AA on their 319, and 3 more Y seats on their 320 (despite also having 4 more F seats on each).
So for giggles, I did just do the more detailed comparison for AA and DL, and when you do consider the number of each type of plane (stats as of 12/31/21 from each 10-K), I'm getting that 8.7% of AA's narrowbody seats are first class, vs. 10.5% for DL. (Note, I'm assuming 16F in AA's 321s, but I think maybe they're moving toward 20F to be consistent with the 321neos - Oasis-ized?) If you assume they're consistent with the neo, that moves AA's % up to 9.2%. Regardless, that's still 15-20% more F seats on DL. I'm also calculating that AA has an average of 14.5-15.5 F seats per aircraft (depends on the 321 assumption), while DL has 17.4, so DL has 10-20% more on this basis.

Note - this also reflects more dense seating in AA Y (including, particularly, fewer MCE/C+ seats, notably AA's 738s have 12 more Y seats than DL's and both are 16F). It does not reflect utilization / ASMs so it's not perfect, but arguably AA's 319s do the shorter hops (and thus more turns) and have the lowest % of F seats (6.3%) while DL's 319s are 9.1% F and the 221s/717s are 11%.
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Old May 25, 22, 10:50 am
  #37  
 
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DL has more F seats but when you look at the workhorse of the AA fleet, the 738 and 321 (except 321T) the F seat count is the same. DL has more larger narrowbody types than AA. Other than the 319 (12 F compared to 8F) the F seating per a/c is similar.
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Old May 25, 22, 1:50 pm
  #38  
 
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Originally Posted by bchandler02 View Post
Not surprised with Fuel and everything else in general so high, thank you inflation.

OKC/BOS was ~400 in Y throughout 2019 when I was making multiple trips up there. Just booked again for a trip this summer and Y was almost 900, F was 1600.
Yep, I booked a SWO/BOS trip (for June) for about $ 700 back in March for work. Colleagues who waited are now paying about $ 900. Back in 2016-2019, I booked this route at about that time of year for about $ 500.
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Old May 25, 22, 2:15 pm
  #39  
 
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Originally Posted by Antarius View Post
I expect AA to charge a premium out of PHX vs the connecting competition. My case is different as I am largely based out if IAH and also go to SFO and DC (much less so these days). UA has the nonstops and would charge a premium while AA and DL were either the same and typically less as I needed to connect at DFW, PHX, CLT etc.

This year, IAH-SFO etc. are far less on UA than AA, which is odd. Even the leisure routes like CUN etc. are cheaper nonstop on UA than AA in my experiences recently. Longhaul PE flights are also crazy, often costing more than J. I flew LAX-NRT on a fare booked through Amex as aa.com and JL's website were giving crazy prices; the flight was 20% full, so it wasn't even a fare bucket issue (or shouldn't have been)



Interesting. I'm not sure why - maybe AA has figured out how to charge a premium and is doing so. I wouldn't think that fuel is the differentiating factor as the AA fleet is largely younger/more fuel efficient.
I paid for F almost 1k for BNA-SFO with a connection in Houston and I booked that a few months ago. Almost all of SQ's routes are up 50% in that time as well.
I also needed to book DPS-SIN. I was about to book it but something came up and 3 days later when I went to actually buy the ticket it had gone up $300 for J.

Last edited by 1readyset2go; May 25, 22 at 2:21 pm
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Old May 25, 22, 7:46 pm
  #40  
 
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Originally Posted by LlamaJesus View Post
Somehow, DL has the same number of Y seats as AA on their 319, and 3 more Y seats on their 320 (despite also having 4 more F seats on each).
DL crams the FC seats with less pitch. Its noticeable.
Not sure about the back of the bus.
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Old May 27, 22, 6:33 am
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Aksmusic View Post
Hello, new to the forum. I always fly on American and usually like to book online first or business class. I’ve noticed tickets have tripled in price since the first of May. Is there a pattern to pricing tickets? I know prices are trending up, but a ticket from SFO to DAY is $3000 and up. Not worth coughing up the money. Even economy on that route is over $1500. Anyone with inside information?
Demand is up, fuel prices are up..... not limited to AA
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Old May 27, 22, 8:41 am
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by DataPlumber View Post
DL crams the FC seats with less pitch. Its noticeable.
Not sure about the back of the bus.
Just going off the Aerolopa images (which could be wrong, of course), it looks like the bathrooms on the DL planes are in different locations (further back), and they may be a bit smaller. Not sure what AA uses that space for (cargo, fuel?).
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Old May 27, 22, 10:35 am
  #43  
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Originally Posted by DataPlumber View Post
DL crams the FC seats with less pitch. Its noticeable.
Not sure about the back of the bus.
Both AA and DL seem to be standardizing on 37" pitch in FC on newer aircraft.
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Am.../fleetinfo.php
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/De.../fleetinfo.php

Alaska looks to be the most generous when it comes to FC seat pitch
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Al.../fleetinfo.php


FWIW, the DL 757-200 model with 16 seats up front mentioned upthread is actually their Delta One version (75S) with flatbed seats. DL 757-200s with First Class seating all have 20 seats in FC.

Last edited by xliioper; May 27, 22 at 2:39 pm
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Old May 27, 22, 12:13 pm
  #44  
 
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Luckily all of my trips that I have this summer were booked about 6 months ago before things got super expensive. I have one flight from San Francisco to New Orleans in June. I was looking to change the date by one day. The fair would have gone up by $500 so I just stuck with my original day. I looked at current fares for some of the tickets I already have booked for the summer, and most of them are hundreds and hundreds of dollars more now than they were when I booked them. However, I just booked several flights in October and November last night, and they were cheap again, relatively speaking. I got Oklahoma City to San Francisco for $150, San Francisco to salt Lake City for $102, salt Lake City to Jackson Mississippi for $112, and Jackson Mississippi to Oklahoma City for $150. These were all in november.
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Old May 27, 22, 1:31 pm
  #45  
 
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Originally Posted by ijgordon View Post
So for giggles, I did just do the more detailed comparison for AA and DL, and when you do consider the number of each type of plane (stats as of 12/31/21 from each 10-K), I'm getting that 8.7% of AA's narrowbody seats are first class, vs. 10.5% for DL. (Note, I'm assuming 16F in AA's 321s, but I think maybe they're moving toward 20F to be consistent with the 321neos - Oasis-ized?) If you assume they're consistent with the neo, that moves AA's % up to 9.2%. Regardless, that's still 15-20% more F seats on DL. I'm also calculating that AA has an average of 14.5-15.5 F seats per aircraft (depends on the 321 assumption), while DL has 17.4, so DL has 10-20% more on this basis.

Note - this also reflects more dense seating in AA Y (including, particularly, fewer MCE/C+ seats, notably AA's 738s have 12 more Y seats than DL's and both are 16F). It does not reflect utilization / ASMs so it's not perfect, but arguably AA's 319s do the shorter hops (and thus more turns) and have the lowest % of F seats (6.3%) while DL's 319s are 9.1% F and the 221s/717s are 11%.
Great read, interesting #'s, thank you.
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