New AA Status Program - Advice needed
 

I'm a domestic business traveler. I typically travel 12-15 flights on American per year. This typically gets me to Gold status.

I really value first class upgrades as part of status, and the 500 mile coupons are annoying. Additionally I rarely get upgraded, unless I fly uncommon routes/times.

I spend ~$80-$100k per year on my primary credit card.

A couple questions:

1) If I get an AA credit card and put that $80-$100k spend onto the card, in addition to my regular 12-15 domestic flights, I should be able to achieve platinum pro status, correct? Any thoughts on this approach?

2) What is a realistic expectation for frequency in which a plat pro will get upgraded to first? I fly out of PBI or FLL/MIA and travel all over the country.

Looking for general advise on this strategy.

I get 5.25% cash back on dining and travel and that is a significant portion of my CC spend. For 5K feel like I am strongly considering free agency as I almost always buy first anyway and the cash back would certainly cover a large amount of the cost differential if you can secure a favorable cash back rate.

Possibly.

Still low, but better than now.

CK and EXP are the one at the top. Unless you can beat them up, you will still be at the bottom of the food chain. Non-hub-to-hub chance will be higher.

I don't think anyone really knows what the density of elites will be post-2022. It's possible that some will be low-frequency fliers making elite status from credit card usage, but you're not competing for upgrades with people who are swiping their card at Lowe's.

Consider your opportunity cost. 80K in spend will get you 80K AA miles. What are your options for rewards on those $80K spent on other cards?

It gets more than just 80k RDM, the difference between Gold and Platinum Pro has some value.

OP, when you say 12-15 'flights', do you actually mean trips? 12-15 flights it probably isn't worth it, 12-15 round-trips is another story, more so if you're usually connecting.

Based on my years of AA in South Florida, upgrades are hard out of PBI as there are so few flights, the planes are small, and people seem to pay for first class, so very little open seats.

Flights out of MIA, especially the 777 or 787 generally have lots of open seats, but often get taken by Executive Platinum's, but a good friend of mine is Plat Pro and gets upgrades about 20% of the time if he is traveling solo out of MIA.

I mean 12-15 round trip flights. 8-10 of which are connecting.

For me it is all about the first class upgrade. If I have a good chance of getting upgraded on every flight, I will derive tremendous benefit personally.

This is really concerning to hear. 20% upgrade chances and you think that is good as plat pro? Yikes.

I had in my head getting upgraded 70-80% of the time as a plat pro. I will add that I do fly non-popular legs while traveling. So it would likely be a PBI to DFW or CLT and then from that hub to a regional airport. I also don't typically do the Monday 6 AM - Thursday 5 PM flights.

70-80% upgrades as Plat Pro is "very unreasonable" unless you are Concierge Key and even then, it may be lower.

By your standard of expecting 70-80% upgrades for Plat Pro, what would you put Executive Platinum and Concierge Key upgrades changes at?

There are no free lunches these days and IF flying first class or business class is important to you, then it is best to simply buy the ticket and not worry about free upgrades or focus on getting Executive Platinum.

Also, with the new system, it is pretty easy to hit Plat Pro and I expect a flood of members to hit that level and for 2022-2023 I think upgrades for Platinum Pro will probably drop to 10% or so (just my guess)

You've asked the $64 million question. People do post information about their upgrade successes, but it's very difficult to reduce it to any kind of useful formula. As a PP you will be behind all the CK's and EXP's. Even EXP's with low 12-month rolling spend report mediocre upgrade success. And while there are certainly flights with less of an elite load, being on an elite-light flight is no guarantee at all.

I'm EXP on a Sunday evening PHL-LAS flight this week and F appeared to be sold out even before we hit the 100-hour window.

FWIW, note that as a PP you will not earn 500-mile stickers. Even if you never get a complimentary upgrade, you won't earn stickers for future use.

I would say make the stretch to get to EXP if you want meaningful upgrade chances.

Unfortunately I've had worse than mediocre ($17K spend) at 28.8%

With the new system it’s actually more difficult - flying requires over $12,000 minimum spend compared to only $9,000 this year, and that’s if you’re already platinum pro. For new members with no status? $25,000. The only way to bring this down to the current requirement is to spend $80,000 on a credit card. (This math isn’t exactly accurate given that you’d be achieving higher levels of status and subsequently earn along the way, but you get the point). Most road warriors aren’t C Suite folks making enough to be diverting that spend to an AA card, and if you are easily spending that amount, you may like already be flying first through purchase. For those non road warriors attempting to buy their way into higher levels of status but don’t fly much, as many have pointed out you’re not competing with them anyway because they simple aren’t present to compete with.

The idea that this new system will open the flood gates for more higher level elites simply makes no sense to me. In addition, when’s the last time you talked to a business road warrior who fully expects all of those zoom meetings to go away and that they’ll fully resume previous travel? I think fewer elites would be qualifying under the old system, much less the new one. Of course, less business travel means fewer people to compete for upgrades.

OP, I have very little experience with this, but math and the current state of business travel suggest that you’ll have much less competition, and the upgrade percentages you’re being quoted are significantly out of date. The only variable I could see changing in a negative direction would be if AA cuts their flight schedule accordingly. So, while I predict the numerator in the odds equation will shrink, it’s entirely possible that the denominator will too.

Are you reporting a less than 30% first class upgrade from coach as a Executive Platinum member with $17k spend?

What routes do you fly?

Also, FYI - the first class upgrade on those small planes (CRJ) are not impressive

Yes. I couldn't even upgrade on a flight to Bismarck a few months ago :D

I fly everywhere but mostly sea and lax/sna. I don't get upgraded mostly for 2 reasons: 1.either F is already sold out 7 days out or 2. with F available AA won't upgrade me at any window and FCM will sell out the remaining seats. For example, Friday night I'm flying to Tampa. There are 5 seats up front available but rather than AA upgrade me they are trying to dump them at $161 on the app. Why reward a BIS exp when they can sell them? Good if your a shareholder I suppose. Oh well. I bought Y and expect Y. That being said AA don't market free available upgrades when I'm batting this low %.

Get a high cash back travel CC, say 5% is not difficult, take the money and run.

Plat Pro here. Of the 30 or so legs I've flown this year, every single qualifying route I have flown (except for one) earned me an upgrade. Some of them were confirmed 3 days ahead of time, some were confirmed at the gate. I mainly travel along the east coast, and I haven't ventured further west than Chicago or Dallas. Not sure what the upgrade landscape is like on flights to/from the west coast.

It is noteworthy that unlike Gold, you'll be able to select the MCE seats from the time you are booking, regardless of if you're paying with points or cash.

For current AA Platinum Pro members, you need to hit 125,000 Loyalty Points in 2022 and the Best method is using a AA co-branded credit card, especially, flying AA with AAdvantage Aviator Silver Mastercard incentive

$50,000 in credit card spend = 65,000 loyalty points
$6,667 in flights spend = 60,000 loyalty points

$75,000 in credit card spend = 90,000 loyalty points
$3,889 in flights spend = 35,000 loyalty points

You hit the nail on the head, AA figures if they can get even $100 on an upgrade that is better than giving a free seat away.

When and where do you see AA trying to sell upgrades for cheap (what is the sweet spot)?

Where do you see 5% cash back cards?

Hey MiamiBill - In terms of the new math, keep in mind that that's with that higher earn rate. So those numbers only work for maintaining status, not achieving it. If the OP is worried about more competition from newer members, your math isn't the math he's looking for.

That said, I absolutely agree with your math and is the reason I personally like the new LP system better. I actually have no status, but hope to status challenge my Southwest status into Platinum with AA, then go from there. The new system makes it much more flexible (not necessarily easier) to maintain status, so I'm happy with it.

Curious - what is 'annoying' about the 500 mile coupons?

With your proposed spending and flying I don't think it'd be all that difficult to hit PPro. That's assuming these are paid domestic flights you're referring to, rather than award tickets.

The question is what that likelihood is of an upgrade and whether it's worth the opportunity cost of putting that $80-100k spending on different credit cards. As others have said or alluded to that's really hard to predict given the elite shakeup next year, and is highly variable depending on route.

I've been at Platinum for a couple years now and I feel like I clear upgrades maybe 50% of the time, but it's just extremely variable. On a Friday night short hop on an RJ into MSN I was auto-upgraded and one of like 3 people in first class, with 9 empty seats. On a Sunday afternoon DCA-CLT I was like 11th out of 27 on an upgrade list, on an A319 with 8 total first class seats (suffice to say, didn't clear!). One extreme to the other.

Have you taken a look at the info up at the gate on most of your flights? How many people are typically on the upgrade list, or how many tend to clear, or if any seats in first class go out empty? That might be the best clue for what opportunities would be for your typical travel patterns.

In a way you're weighing certainty vs. uncertainty. If you were to take that $80-100k and put it on other credit cards can you more concretely quantify the value you'd get out of it - either through cash back or point/mile redemption? Versus the potential but uncertainty in what you might get through upgrades. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Not to mention that the domestic first class flying experience is still a significant step back from what it had been, and it's not entirely clear when that will be back to normal.

Interesting, this is precisely the information I was hoping to hear. I fly significantly more east coast as well. What is your home airport?

Good point on the MCE at time of booking.

My personal situation is such that I'm traveling on a MegaCorp dime. Buying 500 mile certs and first class tickets is not really allowed. And I don't have any interest in spending my personal $$ to upgrade on business travel. So with the minimal certs, I don't earn enough regularly to qualify for more than a couple upgrades, and even fewer if it's a long trip. The idea of not having to ever worry about certs and qualify for an upgrade up to 72 hours early seems very enticing, especially if there is a good likelihood that I get upgraded.

No kidding. And what about the data points that don't align with what you were expecting? Disregard?
It's all good. This is FT.

Your approach is good though.
Fly as usual, channel your spending to an AA card. Why not?
It won't hurt and will bump you up the upgrade list.
Don't expect miracles though.

My home airport is Hartford (BDL). I have easy upgrades to Miami, Dallas, and Chicago. Charlotte is always the one that I get last minute. It seems to be a very popular route.

Varies from time to Time on Bank of America Preferred Rewards. Starts at 3.5%
Also $500 sign up bonus, free TSA Global Entry, Pre-Check and $100/year airline cash credits for upgrades, food or club fees
https://www.bankofamerica.com/credit...s-credit-card/
And no, I do not get a referral for this, although I wish I did.

Well stated, I’ve been EP for 7 years. I’ve covered high spend EP and low spend EP. The last 2 years I’ve been back to a high spend EP because my business actually expanded. My Upgrade rate has been about 60%. I’m an SNA flyer through DFW, so there are enough CK’s that the 60% is probably pretty good. Here’s my take on this. I’m BA to the EU and QR to Asia a couple of times a year pre COVID. 2022 I’ll be back on the EU schedule. I’m switching to BAEC. I’ll make Gold by June. While I’ll lose my limited upgrades on AA. I’ll keep my OW Emerald, which is what I covet. And I can move my roughly 80-100k AA CC spend to different loyalty cards. I’ll lose the EP line, FC upgrades and I’m not a fan of AVIOS, but I’ll be able to hold onto Emerald easier and I’m not married to AA. This is truly a YMMV decision. I don’t think there’s any one answer that covers everything. In a year or two, I’ll either be patting myself on the back or kicking myself in the azz. 100K spend on AA CC and flights just doesn’t buy enough for me going forward. Good luck! Cheers.

All 5 sold since this morning. Congrats AA!

Thanks for the advice, but getting to EXP will be very difficult for me.

I have a question for the group: I saw somewhere that in order to get the benefits of the your status under the new program, they need to fly at least 30 segments. Does that include upgrades? I ask the question, because it does seem a lot of business owners who might not travel much on AA will have EXP status. Do they need to have flown 30 segments to be higher than me on the upgrade list?

Ahhh okay, this all makes more sense now. In that case, if it was me... I'd probably shoot for it (PPro) and see how it pans out. So long as there's not like a really obvious alternate value in putting your everyday spend on a different card.

To be put in for automatic upgrade requests on domestic flights you do not need 30 segments. 30 segments is when you can unlock / acquire additional awards e.g. systemwide upgrades.

Where do you get 5.25% cash back? Since I’m buying F or J, I’m really only using EXP for lounge access. With over 2m aa miles, I really don’t need more.

bl-ord : BofA must have lowered their rates after you got your deal. The link you gave advertises 2 pts/$ for travel and dining, increasing to 3.5 pts/$ for travel and dining...if you park $0.25 million dollars with BofA. No thanks
Can't see the math on 5% for travel and dining, let alone everyday spending...5% isn't real even if counting the one-time first year $500 welcome bonus and $100 annual fee rebate (which covers the $95 annual rate).
I'm like you, MiamiBill, would like to know where one finds a 5% cash back card. This isn't it. Wish it was simpler

My business travel has picked up in Q4 and I fully expect next year to be nearly back to "normal" - it turns out people are HUNGRY for human interaction, so there are a lot more local/regional events happening and registration to attendance rates (%) are MUCH higher than before.

I value Chase Ultimate Rewards points more than I value higher AA status (than Gold) because of their flexibility in my leisure travel use. I hold Alaska 75K/Emerald, and it provides me anything above Gold I care about on AA. If I want something not covered by those benefits, I have to consider paying for it.

I don't think there is any card that offers flat 5% on all spending.
Some offer 5% - 6% on certain spending categories and/or seasonally.
The best flat cash back rate on any spending I know of is citi double cash at 2%.
I think that having up to 3 cards and using them for what they are best at you can get average 3.5% cashback the most. But then it is a lot of work to keep track which one to use when, at least for me.

Dang.

I'm a domestic business traveler, with 16 round-trips so far this year, and my next flight pushes me past EXP.

All the best, James

Wow. Are you doing a lot of cross country trips? I don't do a lot of cross country trips, although since I moved to Florida from the northeast I expect a lot more longer trips.

I think it is also a lot harder to hit the higher levels from the lower levels. Easier to retain than earn from scratch.

5% (or at least 4.5%) isn't that unreasonable if you are earning UR points. But you are right, categories definitely matter and vary what you should expect. I think your number of about 3.5% is pretty close to average for s simple two or three card setup.

I have Chase Sapphire Reserve which lets me redeem points for travel at 1.5 cents each if I use them for travel. That card also gets 3x points on dining and travel which is a good chunk of my spending. So at a minimum that is 4.5% on those dollars, higher if you value the UR points more because you can get good deals redeeming for J class space. Pair this with a Chase Freedom Unlimited at 1.5x points on everything = 2.25% minimum on miscellaneous spending, I probably average about 3.5-4% back on my everyday cc spending. Some people might value UR closer to 2 cents each and then that 3.5-4 becomes 4.5-5% pretty easy

For any dining or travel purchases I really would not want to earn only 1x AA miles if I could get 3x UR points

This x 100. I get 1.75% to 5.25% based on category in cold hard cash on a free CC. How worth it is this to you for dollar $$$ money-wise?

Cash is always easier to spend than miles.

"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great." from A League of Their Own

or cash can be spent.
AA miles???
Kind of beating the dead horse, but if the OP maximized his cash back, he could get at least $3,500 cash back (out of 100k spend) which he could use to up-fare his economy tickets for at least 3 or 4 trips and don't have to play the upgrade gamble.
I know up-fare presents a challenge for reimbursable expenses in case of change of travel plans but for the most part there are always workarounds.

I used to be a MS Whale. When I was doing it, the best cashback deal I found was BOA with 1.5% base and a 75% bonus if you had a certain amount in BOA or Merrill Lynch ($100K?)

The best value I get now on organic spend is 7.7% This happens if I buy airfare on the Amex site with my Amex plat card, which gives me 5X Amex points, and when I redeem them I get a 35% points rebate.

Of course when you redeem points at a premium (on Amex, Chase, wherever) you are foregoing opportunity cost of points you could earn for the purchase.

Most of my spend is on an Amex card that gives 2x points for - I think, up to $50K a year, which is not a mark I hit without MS. With the points worth a net 1.54 cents after the rebate, I'm getting 3.08% back when redeemed for flights. So if I moved $50K spend to an AA card, I would get 50K AA points instead of $1500 worth of travel. Is that worth it? Not clear.