It's interesting how variable the AA EXP e500 (sticker) upgrade experience can be across the flyertalk universe.

I am a multiyear EXP, around 20k annual spend. My domestic upgrade percentage is above 90%. And it has been that way for many years. However, I look at loads on expertflyer before I book -- and I usually book just before my upgrade window opens. I also avoid Sunday/ Monday and Thursday/ Friday travel (I make my own schedule). Mostly fly on Tuesdays and Saturdays. Based in PBI now, but used to be in the northeast. I'll fly out of FLL or MIA if the flights are better. PBI-ORD is sometimes difficult; PBI-DFW is moderately difficult. FLL is usually a breeze. Also important: the aircraft type. The new A321 with 20 F seats is of course a much better option than the A319 with 8 F seats.

I get it through SunTrust Private Wealth (now Truist). 5.25% on dining and travel, 3.5% on gas and grocery and 1.75% on everything else.

I used to care a lot more about status, but buying premium tickets these past few years I was already making me think about free agency. Now asking myself is EXP at 200K LP worth $3500 of lost cash back (assuming 1.75% spend), Im not so sure. Maybe if you cut that cost in half with a ticket somewhere if you can actually redeem for a premium cabin...

Why would an EXP use e500’s?

Just offering a datum on upgrades. I'm EXP with EDQ around 8000 including the 3K they gave everyone. Flew PHL-LAS last night, 8:15 flight on a B787. 20 F (lie-flat seats), unsurprisingly all full when I checked in; I was #1 on the upgrade list and cleared. Sunday night to LAS is not particularly an elite-heavy route, but it's certainly an appealing time to fork over the extra cash to buy F. I usually buy F on this route anyway but since (a) right now EQD do me no good; (b) the alterative is the PE cabin which ain't so bad; and (c) for $600 (F) vs. $100 (Y) it was worth rolling the dice in case I'd score a free upgrade, I bought Y.

They warned me when I boarded that the IFE wasn't working at that seat. Fortunately I had a copy of "Hamilton" on my laptop that I had yet to watch, so this was a great time.

EXP upgrades to R inventory are still processed as e500 "sticker" upgrades, just EXPs have an unlimited (free) supply of them. The method of upgrading is the same as those who must earn/ purchase/ redeem stickers. Also, many EXPs do keep some stickers in the account btw for companions, who can upgrade at the EXP window, but whose status nonetheless requires an actual e500 redemption.

You have hit it on the head, almost everything is from extreme west coast (Reno) to eastern side of the country. maybe ~2,800 miles BIS each way. Typically mid-$600 each flight.

All the best, James

I 100% think business travel will come back, just not 100%. I think first client meetings, for example, will be face to face, but those quarterly check-ins may be a zoom call. Before the pandemic, people were also hungry to stay at home and be with their family more, whether they realize it. I don't think many folks will be willing to give that up to go back to flying across the country for something that could be done on a zoom call.