New AA Status Program - Advice needed
 

I'm a domestic business traveler. I typically travel 12-15 flights on American per year. This typically gets me to Gold status.

I really value first class upgrades as part of status, and the 500 mile coupons are annoying. Additionally I rarely get upgraded, unless I fly uncommon routes/times.

I spend ~$80-$100k per year on my primary credit card.

A couple questions:

1) If I get an AA credit card and put that $80-$100k spend onto the card, in addition to my regular 12-15 domestic flights, I should be able to achieve platinum pro status, correct? Any thoughts on this approach?

2) What is a realistic expectation for frequency in which a plat pro will get upgraded to first? I fly out of PBI or FLL/MIA and travel all over the country.

Looking for general advise on this strategy.

I get 5.25% cash back on dining and travel and that is a significant portion of my CC spend. For 5K feel like I am strongly considering free agency as I almost always buy first anyway and the cash back would certainly cover a large amount of the cost differential if you can secure a favorable cash back rate.

Possibly.

Still low, but better than now.

CK and EXP are the one at the top. Unless you can beat them up, you will still be at the bottom of the food chain. Non-hub-to-hub chance will be higher.

I don't think anyone really knows what the density of elites will be post-2022. It's possible that some will be low-frequency fliers making elite status from credit card usage, but you're not competing for upgrades with people who are swiping their card at Lowe's.

Consider your opportunity cost. 80K in spend will get you 80K AA miles. What are your options for rewards on those $80K spent on other cards?

It gets more than just 80k RDM, the difference between Gold and Platinum Pro has some value.

OP, when you say 12-15 'flights', do you actually mean trips? 12-15 flights it probably isn't worth it, 12-15 round-trips is another story, more so if you're usually connecting.

Based on my years of AA in South Florida, upgrades are hard out of PBI as there are so few flights, the planes are small, and people seem to pay for first class, so very little open seats.

Flights out of MIA, especially the 777 or 787 generally have lots of open seats, but often get taken by Executive Platinum's, but a good friend of mine is Plat Pro and gets upgrades about 20% of the time if he is traveling solo out of MIA.

I mean 12-15 round trip flights. 8-10 of which are connecting.

For me it is all about the first class upgrade. If I have a good chance of getting upgraded on every flight, I will derive tremendous benefit personally.

This is really concerning to hear. 20% upgrade chances and you think that is good as plat pro? Yikes.

I had in my head getting upgraded 70-80% of the time as a plat pro. I will add that I do fly non-popular legs while traveling. So it would likely be a PBI to DFW or CLT and then from that hub to a regional airport. I also don't typically do the Monday 6 AM - Thursday 5 PM flights.

70-80% upgrades as Plat Pro is "very unreasonable" unless you are Concierge Key and even then, it may be lower.

By your standard of expecting 70-80% upgrades for Plat Pro, what would you put Executive Platinum and Concierge Key upgrades changes at?

There are no free lunches these days and IF flying first class or business class is important to you, then it is best to simply buy the ticket and not worry about free upgrades or focus on getting Executive Platinum.

Also, with the new system, it is pretty easy to hit Plat Pro and I expect a flood of members to hit that level and for 2022-2023 I think upgrades for Platinum Pro will probably drop to 10% or so (just my guess)

You've asked the $64 million question. People do post information about their upgrade successes, but it's very difficult to reduce it to any kind of useful formula. As a PP you will be behind all the CK's and EXP's. Even EXP's with low 12-month rolling spend report mediocre upgrade success. And while there are certainly flights with less of an elite load, being on an elite-light flight is no guarantee at all.

I'm EXP on a Sunday evening PHL-LAS flight this week and F appeared to be sold out even before we hit the 100-hour window.

FWIW, note that as a PP you will not earn 500-mile stickers. Even if you never get a complimentary upgrade, you won't earn stickers for future use.

I would say make the stretch to get to EXP if you want meaningful upgrade chances.

Unfortunately I've had worse than mediocre ($17K spend) at 28.8%

With the new system it’s actually more difficult - flying requires over $12,000 minimum spend compared to only $9,000 this year, and that’s if you’re already platinum pro. For new members with no status? $25,000. The only way to bring this down to the current requirement is to spend $80,000 on a credit card. (This math isn’t exactly accurate given that you’d be achieving higher levels of status and subsequently earn along the way, but you get the point). Most road warriors aren’t C Suite folks making enough to be diverting that spend to an AA card, and if you are easily spending that amount, you may like already be flying first through purchase. For those non road warriors attempting to buy their way into higher levels of status but don’t fly much, as many have pointed out you’re not competing with them anyway because they simple aren’t present to compete with.

The idea that this new system will open the flood gates for more higher level elites simply makes no sense to me. In addition, when’s the last time you talked to a business road warrior who fully expects all of those zoom meetings to go away and that they’ll fully resume previous travel? I think fewer elites would be qualifying under the old system, much less the new one. Of course, less business travel means fewer people to compete for upgrades.

OP, I have very little experience with this, but math and the current state of business travel suggest that you’ll have much less competition, and the upgrade percentages you’re being quoted are significantly out of date. The only variable I could see changing in a negative direction would be if AA cuts their flight schedule accordingly. So, while I predict the numerator in the odds equation will shrink, it’s entirely possible that the denominator will too.

Are you reporting a less than 30% first class upgrade from coach as a Executive Platinum member with $17k spend?

What routes do you fly?

Also, FYI - the first class upgrade on those small planes (CRJ) are not impressive

Yes. I couldn't even upgrade on a flight to Bismarck a few months ago :D

I fly everywhere but mostly sea and lax/sna. I don't get upgraded mostly for 2 reasons: 1.either F is already sold out 7 days out or 2. with F available AA won't upgrade me at any window and FCM will sell out the remaining seats. For example, Friday night I'm flying to Tampa. There are 5 seats up front available but rather than AA upgrade me they are trying to dump them at $161 on the app. Why reward a BIS exp when they can sell them? Good if your a shareholder I suppose. Oh well. I bought Y and expect Y. That being said AA don't market free available upgrades when I'm batting this low %.

Get a high cash back travel CC, say 5% is not difficult, take the money and run.

Plat Pro here. Of the 30 or so legs I've flown this year, every single qualifying route I have flown (except for one) earned me an upgrade. Some of them were confirmed 3 days ahead of time, some were confirmed at the gate. I mainly travel along the east coast, and I haven't ventured further west than Chicago or Dallas. Not sure what the upgrade landscape is like on flights to/from the west coast.

It is noteworthy that unlike Gold, you'll be able to select the MCE seats from the time you are booking, regardless of if you're paying with points or cash.