My business travel has picked up in Q4 and I fully expect next year to be nearly back to "normal" - it turns out people are HUNGRY for human interaction, so there are a lot more local/regional events happening and registration to attendance rates (%) are MUCH higher than before.

I value Chase Ultimate Rewards points more than I value higher AA status (than Gold) because of their flexibility in my leisure travel use. I hold Alaska 75K/Emerald, and it provides me anything above Gold I care about on AA. If I want something not covered by those benefits, I have to consider paying for it.

I don't think there is any card that offers flat 5% on all spending.
Some offer 5% - 6% on certain spending categories and/or seasonally.
The best flat cash back rate on any spending I know of is citi double cash at 2%.
I think that having up to 3 cards and using them for what they are best at you can get average 3.5% cashback the most. But then it is a lot of work to keep track which one to use when, at least for me.

Dang.

I'm a domestic business traveler, with 16 round-trips so far this year, and my next flight pushes me past EXP.

All the best, James

Wow. Are you doing a lot of cross country trips? I don't do a lot of cross country trips, although since I moved to Florida from the northeast I expect a lot more longer trips.

I think it is also a lot harder to hit the higher levels from the lower levels. Easier to retain than earn from scratch.

5% (or at least 4.5%) isn't that unreasonable if you are earning UR points. But you are right, categories definitely matter and vary what you should expect. I think your number of about 3.5% is pretty close to average for s simple two or three card setup.

I have Chase Sapphire Reserve which lets me redeem points for travel at 1.5 cents each if I use them for travel. That card also gets 3x points on dining and travel which is a good chunk of my spending. So at a minimum that is 4.5% on those dollars, higher if you value the UR points more because you can get good deals redeeming for J class space. Pair this with a Chase Freedom Unlimited at 1.5x points on everything = 2.25% minimum on miscellaneous spending, I probably average about 3.5-4% back on my everyday cc spending. Some people might value UR closer to 2 cents each and then that 3.5-4 becomes 4.5-5% pretty easy

For any dining or travel purchases I really would not want to earn only 1x AA miles if I could get 3x UR points

This x 100. I get 1.75% to 5.25% based on category in cold hard cash on a free CC. How worth it is this to you for dollar $$$ money-wise?

Cash is always easier to spend than miles.

"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great." from A League of Their Own

or cash can be spent.
AA miles???
Kind of beating the dead horse, but if the OP maximized his cash back, he could get at least $3,500 cash back (out of 100k spend) which he could use to up-fare his economy tickets for at least 3 or 4 trips and don't have to play the upgrade gamble.
I know up-fare presents a challenge for reimbursable expenses in case of change of travel plans but for the most part there are always workarounds.

I used to be a MS Whale. When I was doing it, the best cashback deal I found was BOA with 1.5% base and a 75% bonus if you had a certain amount in BOA or Merrill Lynch ($100K?)

The best value I get now on organic spend is 7.7% This happens if I buy airfare on the Amex site with my Amex plat card, which gives me 5X Amex points, and when I redeem them I get a 35% points rebate.

Of course when you redeem points at a premium (on Amex, Chase, wherever) you are foregoing opportunity cost of points you could earn for the purchase.

Most of my spend is on an Amex card that gives 2x points for - I think, up to $50K a year, which is not a mark I hit without MS. With the points worth a net 1.54 cents after the rebate, I'm getting 3.08% back when redeemed for flights. So if I moved $50K spend to an AA card, I would get 50K AA points instead of $1500 worth of travel. Is that worth it? Not clear.

It's interesting how variable the AA EXP e500 (sticker) upgrade experience can be across the flyertalk universe.

I am a multiyear EXP, around 20k annual spend. My domestic upgrade percentage is above 90%. And it has been that way for many years. However, I look at loads on expertflyer before I book -- and I usually book just before my upgrade window opens. I also avoid Sunday/ Monday and Thursday/ Friday travel (I make my own schedule). Mostly fly on Tuesdays and Saturdays. Based in PBI now, but used to be in the northeast. I'll fly out of FLL or MIA if the flights are better. PBI-ORD is sometimes difficult; PBI-DFW is moderately difficult. FLL is usually a breeze. Also important: the aircraft type. The new A321 with 20 F seats is of course a much better option than the A319 with 8 F seats.

I get it through SunTrust Private Wealth (now Truist). 5.25% on dining and travel, 3.5% on gas and grocery and 1.75% on everything else.

I used to care a lot more about status, but buying premium tickets these past few years I was already making me think about free agency. Now asking myself is EXP at 200K LP worth $3500 of lost cash back (assuming 1.75% spend), Im not so sure. Maybe if you cut that cost in half with a ticket somewhere if you can actually redeem for a premium cabin...

Why would an EXP use e500’s?

Just offering a datum on upgrades. I'm EXP with EDQ around 8000 including the 3K they gave everyone. Flew PHL-LAS last night, 8:15 flight on a B787. 20 F (lie-flat seats), unsurprisingly all full when I checked in; I was #1 on the upgrade list and cleared. Sunday night to LAS is not particularly an elite-heavy route, but it's certainly an appealing time to fork over the extra cash to buy F. I usually buy F on this route anyway but since (a) right now EQD do me no good; (b) the alterative is the PE cabin which ain't so bad; and (c) for $600 (F) vs. $100 (Y) it was worth rolling the dice in case I'd score a free upgrade, I bought Y.

They warned me when I boarded that the IFE wasn't working at that seat. Fortunately I had a copy of "Hamilton" on my laptop that I had yet to watch, so this was a great time.

EXP upgrades to R inventory are still processed as e500 "sticker" upgrades, just EXPs have an unlimited (free) supply of them. The method of upgrading is the same as those who must earn/ purchase/ redeem stickers. Also, many EXPs do keep some stickers in the account btw for companions, who can upgrade at the EXP window, but whose status nonetheless requires an actual e500 redemption.