Feb 16, 2020, 9:16 am

FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides

Last edit by: JDiver

PLEASE SEE link for 2022 thread.

Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing (Be aware of upgrade priority changes enacted 20 May 2017)

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)

Elite status

Concierge Key
Executive Platinum
Platinum Pro
Platinum
Gold

Upgrade type

Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by

Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
Booking class
Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Link to 2019 archived thread (We’ve refilled this thread for 2020-21 because of the relatively low volume of posts due to Covid-19’s effect on travel, and the usefulness of having relevant experiences in some volume for readers. — Moderator)

ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2020-21 master thread)

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Mar 5, 2020 | 9:39 am

#76

seigex

Join Date: Jul 2017

Location: California

Programs: AA EXP; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott Bonvoy Titanium Elite

Posts: 2,081

For a flight like AA26 (HND-LAX) that is J7 (more like J25 out of 30, 789) on 4/19, what's the likelihood that C opens up before the day of the flight?

I'm currently using miles to fly back from Tokyo that day to get J class, but would rather be on a revenue ticket upgraded to J to earn miles, wondering if it's worth switching over to a round trip paid ticket and just hoping that C opens up.

Mar 5, 2020 | 1:08 pm

#77

metallo

Join Date: Jan 2011

Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN

Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, BA Gold, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum

Posts: 1,990

Quote:

Originally Posted by seigex

For a flight like AA26 (HND-LAX) that is J7 (more like J25 out of 30, 789) on 4/19, what's the likelihood that C opens up before the day of the flight?

Pretty good with those numbers, in my experience with international routes/SWU upgrades generally... can't speak specifically to that route, however. With Coronavirus, I'd say even better now.

Mar 5, 2020 | 1:58 pm

#78

seigex

Join Date: Jul 2017

Location: California

Programs: AA EXP; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott Bonvoy Titanium Elite

Posts: 2,081

Quote:

Originally Posted by metallo

Pretty good with those numbers, in my experience with international routes/SWU upgrades generally... can't speak specifically to that route, however. With Coronavirus, I'd say even better now.

Thanks for the reply. I've only used SWU with known C availability. I can waitlist a SWU to be on the list for upgrade at T-100 or at the gate, correct?

EDIT: Nevermind, looks like that's the case. Sounds like I should go for it. Thanks again.

Mar 6, 2020 | 8:25 am

#79

BOSishome

Join Date: May 2011

Location: SBA

Programs: DL Platinum, UA Silver

Posts: 328

I was one of only two revenue passengers in F on LGA-PHL this morning.

Granted-This isn’t a tough upgrade-but still, I think it shows some of the effect of the COVID-19.

Now on PHL-YOW and I was the first elite to board (in group 3).

Mar 6, 2020 | 10:08 am

#80

fls114

Join Date: Jul 2015

Location: RDU

Posts: 85

Quote:

Originally Posted by enviroian

Speaking of Corona has anyone been upgraded this week on flights that are notoriously zeroed out in advance and/or have long upgrade lists? I’m flying to SEA next week. That definitely will be a data point for me.

SWU for the notoriously difficult SYD-LAX segment for 4/29 cleared today! No luck so far on the outbound, but this is either dumb luck or attributed to less international travel.

Mar 6, 2020 | 11:15 am

#81

JJeffrey

FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Feb 2001

Location: RDU <|> MMX

Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS

Posts: 15,199

Quote:

Originally Posted by fls114

SWU for the notoriously difficult SYD-LAX segment for 4/29 cleared today! No luck so far on the outbound, but this is either dumb luck or attributed to less international travel.

This. Across the board.

Mar 6, 2020 | 5:44 pm

#82

shaddie

Join Date: Nov 2009

Location: DFW

Posts: 275

I got a 4 day out upgrade DFW-PHX for Monday morning.

cant remember last time that happened.
On a 320 with only 12F.

Seat map shows 3 still available.

enviroian likes this.

Mar 7, 2020 | 8:53 am

#83

enviroian

Suspended

Join Date: Nov 2003

Location: Wesley Chapel, FL

Programs: American Airlines

Posts: 31,464

for kicks and giggles I rant EF for C award DFW-LHR (both non stop and via clt, ord, jfk, mia etc) and C7 everywhere....this is for the next three weeks out. Definitely Corona related. Wow. I haven't seen that many C's since my mich st transcripts

GTITAN, GrumpyYoungMan and dciolli like this.

Mar 12, 2020 | 7:56 pm

#84

Zacnlinc

Join Date: Aug 2008

Location: San Francisco

Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.

Posts: 1,793

Just curious if folks, say Plats and Golds, have seen an increase with their upgrading successes. I just cleared at T-100 near exact mark for one of the tough SFO-DFW Monday flights! MCE had lots of open seats yesterday too.. Wow!!

Mar 12, 2020 | 9:03 pm

#85

JJeffrey

FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Feb 2001

Location: RDU <|> MMX

Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS

Posts: 15,199

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zacnlinc

Of course, overall demand has tanked, there are tons of similar data points over in the virus thread...

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...l#post32176078

Zacnlinc likes this.

Mar 12, 2020 | 9:58 pm

#86

Zacnlinc

Join Date: Aug 2008

Location: San Francisco

Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.

Posts: 1,793

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJeffrey

Of course, overall demand has tanked, there are tons of similar data points over in the virus thread...

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...l#post32176078

Thanks.... Have taken the past ten days off (and offline) indeed... Much needed rest and recharging needed as well as just being grounded with family and friends.

Mar 16, 2020 | 3:37 pm

#87

tlglenn

Join Date: Dec 2001

Location: CP-ASEL,AMEL,G-IA in Tucson, Arizona, United States

Posts: 1,166

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zacnlinc

As PLT I cleared around T-48 for TUS-PHX and PHX-ABQ last week. F went out full on both flights.

Due to NCAA cancellations I changed my return flights to the morning following my evening phone call so I ended up on the upgrade standby list for each airport. I did go to the top of each list even though it seemed everyone else checked in before me. I was the only one who cleared for ABQ-PHX and one of two who cleared for PHX-TUS. It might've been an anomalous day due to hundreds of athletes, coaches, etc. scrambling to change their return plans.