Does EXP experience get worse after successfully completing trial?
 

United 1k refugee here and am currently on an EXP trial. I expect to complete the trial (meaning achieve EXP) in the next couple of weeks.

I have to say my upgrade rate on AA is far and away better than on United as a 1k. My travel I have been upgraded to business/first about 90% (UA at best was maybe 30-40%) of the time which is amazing to me.

Will this percentage drop after I complete my trial? Is there some kind of algorithm in place that tells AA to put me higher in the upgrade list since I'm on a trial to entice me to switch?

I am just shocked at how AA has performed vs UA and I want to temper expectations appropriately.

It should increase after your trial as you'll have done more EQDs over the last 12 month period. The effects you're experiencing is because AA isn't as aggressive at monetizing the first class cabin as United is. I'm currently 6 upgrades/6 flights 100% upgrades this year with ~$18,000 of spend.

There's no special algorithm in place for trial elites to be higher on the upgrade list. It seems to be commonly discussed on FT that AA EXPs are upgraded more often than UA 1Ks.

Thanks so upgrade priority is based on Eqd (within the tier)? Good to know. Perhaps I am getting good experiences because it's very early in the year.

SMH..wish I had known earlier and I would have switched earlier....thanks

Glad to hear that UA is actually selling F tickets rather than upgrading everyone. Good news!

It's actually a rolling 1-year EQD. So right now you're on the bottom of the food chain for EXP's. As you spend more and fly longer it'll only get better.

The routes you are flying are likely going to be a big factor. If you have been flying routes that were UA Elite heavy, but not on AA, naturally your upgrade rate is going to be higher on AA. There are almost certainly routes where you will do better on UA than AA (for example, routes out AA hostage hub DFW). You will see the same thing on DL with hostage hubs like ATL,DTW, MSP having lower upgrade rates for DL Medallions than for those who fly on other alliances out of those hubs.

Yeah--over a rolling twelve month period. See this thread for more info: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...thread-19.html

OP where are you based?

Am based in DSM and travel monthly to SFO

While it's a factor, due to FCM UA 1K seems to be about as good as AA PLT in terms of upgrade success on average (i.e., expect to mostly not be upgraded). Whereas as an EXP on AA I often get upgraded even on in-demand routes like JFK<->SFO, my friends who are 1K rarely get upgraded even on secondary routes. OP's experience of 30-40% upgrades is actually a lot better than any of the 1Ks I know.

Last year I had to fly to ewr every month(changed jobs), I would get upgrade from dsm>iah or dsm>den but would almost NEVER get upgraded from there onto EWR. So I was upgraded on the 1-2 hour flights never the longer ones.

With AA I have been upgraded into SFO and SAN my two flights on this trial so far (through DFW). Am very happy about this trend.

Bolding mine. Flying any non-UA airline to/from SFO means competing with significantly fewer elites, including especially those at the GS/CK/360 level, per flight.

Got it. That explains your upgrade percentage. I'm at 18% upgrade rate being DFW based.

I got my dfw upgrade last night to SFO. Typically my route is dsm>DFW>SFO
Dsm>PHX>SFO

Have gotten upgraded on all of those...I hope I don't drop back to 18%....that would not be nice given the trend thus far.

I hope luck stays with you! Jut yesterday I flew dfw-atl mid afternoon flight and was 18 out of 42 on the list . :D

It's all about timing. DFW-SFO can be an easy or tough upgrade. Same with ORD (which I find easier than DFW). AA does not sell upgrades to non-elites like UA so upgrade rates are much higher.

If you're on a challenge, among EXPs you're about at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to upgrades. The way AA prioritizes within status is your 12 month rolling spend with the airline, so yours is much, much lower than existing EXPs who netted at least $15k in spend in 2019. As your spend goes up, your priority among EXPs will go up too.

Not surprised your experience is a far higher upgrade rate on American. I'm SFO based and it keeps me flying American - my upgrade rate the last few years has been 80-85%+ whereas my friends who fly UA or DL are upgraded at far, far lower rates

Is there a thread that tracks upgrade rates by destination? Would be cool to see and I could build a visualization.

When I log into my reservations on the app I'm often prompted with a message to upgrade to F for some amount of money. Typically the amounts aren't worth it (last week $1,041 for an upgrade on MIA/LAX 321), at least to me. But maybe others bite. I assume this would be an instant upgrade after one paid the $$$$.

I've noticed that after AA instituted this feature in the app my upgrade rate has plummeted. AA seems willing to sell upgrades via the aa,com app. IDK if AA would sell the same upgrade to a non elite logging into their reservation.

I'm also completing an EXP challenge and have found upgrades as an SFO-based flyer significantly easier. There is a stark difference between the two carriers on FCM. UA aggressively upsells the front cabin at a discount, AA (at least in my experience) does not. AA's revenue management algorithm also appears to be less sophisticated.

Hi Kacee, remember you from the Hyatt board. I'm doing the challenge out of anger with United (nothing like spite as a motivator lol). I thought you were gifted EXP? I was so jealous...

Back on topic though...if my SFO flights are going to be upgraded even at a 50% rate that will far outstrip what I experienced as a United 1k.

I don't know about this. SFO and SJC have been most of my missed upgrades last year. I missed something like 10 (out of 160), and 7 of them involved SFO and SJC. And not always at peak times.

EXP with rolling 37k ish.

You have the lowest upgrade percentage I've ever heard of. I was DFW based a few years ago and didnt have it this bad.

Last few years, I'm 90+%. IAH/HOU/SFO/SJC based so end up in DFW a fair amount.

So you missed 10 out of 160? So you were upgraded 94% of the time? Seems like a pretty good rate..

Unless you missed 7 outof 10..then that would be no bueno...is that the right comparative?

Sorry. Wasnt clear. I was saying I missed 10 or so out of 160 total. out of those 10, 7 were from or to SFO/SJC

A lot has changed in two years too. Before EQD ranking I was indeed in the mid 80 percentage wise. Now at a rolling EQD at only $20K I'm in the high teens. Yep.

SFO is a big UA hub with tons of 1K and GS. Upgrades are more the exception than the rule. Upgrades on AA as EXP here are pretty good, except when going to JFK, DFW, LAX during prime travel times.

No, it wouldn't be. It would be like the train wreck "What Kind of Car to Expect at (Station)" threads on the Hertz forum where people dump in their random anecdotes not realizing that the same station can have dramatically different inventory based on day of week, time of day, and season. It's a confusing jumble and it's not actionable data.

Upgrades are like that. Directionality matters. Day of week matters. Time of day matters. Equipment matters. Season matters...

DFW-based Platinum here. My upgrade rate was 36% in 2019.

Only upgrade-eligible flights are in the denominator. Obviously paid first and upgrade-ineligible fares (award redemption, basic economy, etc.) need to be excluded from the denominator.

My EQD is definitely at the bottom end of EP yet I'll bet my upgrade percentage is better than 75...and I can't remember the last time I wasn't upgraded in/out of that awful "captive" DFW.

Guess I'm just lucky. :confused:

That's what makes me think there is an algorithm in play as my eqd is very small right now , like 1k. I am still about 90 or even 100 percent flying through phx or DFW.

I don't understand how this happens. Just about every flight I take is zeroed out across the board so no upgrade.

Tomorrow for instance I'm on 1630 from atl to dfw. Zeroed out....no upgrade for me and will probably be in the mid teens out of 40 folks. What routes do you fly? Biloxi? :D

I really think it goes back to timing. This is where ExpertFlyer comes in handy for me. I take a quick look before I book flights to or through a hub; if the flight looks full compared to "normal" (*) then I might buy F upfront or use a BXP1, etc.; for my routine flights like DCA to SDF, MIA, etc., however, I just book Y. I have >90% upgrade success overall but that is skewed in my favor because a lot of my flights (see e.g. DCA-SDF) are on E75s with high F-Y seat ratio, and a lot of my DCA-DFW activity is on Tues/Wed/Fri rather than the busier Sun/Mon/Thurs. Note that I have pretty good upgrade success even when I'm on award tickets, which are prioritized after all EXP revenue tickets (but higher than PPRO).

Anyhow I very much doubt that there's an algorithm at play.

* "normal" above is hard to quantify--depends on how far out, day of the week, etc.

Given that AA's systems basically run on ENIAC and cant validate an expired card at the time of booking, I am confident that there is no algorithm present.

Did you see where I posted that day of week, time of day, and directionality matter?

If I had to pick a flight where one would be least likely to be upgraded, ATL>DFW at 4:30pm on a Thursday afternoon would be right at the top of my list.

If you don't think directionality matters, look at the difference between ATL>DFW versus DFW>ATL tomorrow afternoon.

I have cleared weekday upgrades DFW<>ATL as a Plat. I've also bought my share of paid first on that route (on AA and DL). It's all about understanding directional POO trends, which in this market is trivially easy to do.

I don't understand the logic here ... given the hub and spoke model any non-UA flight into SFO is coming from that non-UA airline's own hub. F or example why would DFW-SFO on AA have fewer AA elites than a flight on UA from DFW to SFO has UA elites?

If there is a hub explanation I think it would be that the OP was probably going DSM-DEN-SFO before versus DSM-DFW-SFO now, and that previous UA route has a hub-to-hub flight in it, whereas the AA route is only hub-to-spoke flights.

Do not disagree, just a shame what has happened to the old United First Class.

Biloxi is only once a year. :D

But I'm usually not on the "beautiful people" routes, and rarely do Monday mornings or Thursday evenings. Almost always clear between DFW and ORD, but again I try to stay away from super heavy travel times.